YeOldGoldNugget's Blog Spot: Silver Train

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Gold Continues its Upward Move to 1350

By 79Atoms on Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

OK. Here it goes :

Beginning October 2009 I did my buy gold now article. Gold was then still trading around 1010. Next days trade gold made a high of 1043....and continued going higher.

At the end of October 2009 I wrote G for gold and back with a vengeance article. Gold was at that time trading around 1040 and had just consolidated back to the second trendline. Next days trade gold made a high of 1066 and continued going higher.

Beginning of November 2009 I wrote my gold breaking out of upper trend channel article. Gold was at that time trading around 1096. Next days trade we hit a high of 1110 and continued going higher.

Now, I'm not trying to say that you can draw a trend line along YeOldGoldNugget but from time to time one has to contemplate and look back upon one's own writing. Is YeOldGoldNugget full of crap, just plain lucky,...or can YeOldGoldNugget follow Gold Nuggets?

Well, that is not for me to decide, I'd probably just go with the full of crap.

So,...what does YeOldGoldNugget think now? Hm? I'm probably way too bullish for my own good but I see 1200 being doable...short term. However, I have to say my short term judgment is a bit clouded by me having looked at the weekly chart. The daily I'd say,...bit of danger here. Well, to me, and to the trend line I've drawn, we are again reaching a crossing point. Will we break that trend line and continue heading further up or will gold do a short term pullback?

Hard to say. Fundamentally I'd say we go straight to 1200 and more, however the daily chart tells me gold is due for a small pull back. If you look at the daily chart you'll notice that gold does not stay for very long in the oversold zone, RSI wise then. So based on that, I'd say we could get a pullback in the very near term.

How far a pullback you say? Well, when we drop to trend line 2 then I'm looking at somewhere around 1084. This also coincides with the 30 Moving Average which together with the trend line can or will act as support.

Don't forget! When we are in a strong uptrend its always a rather dumb idea to be betting against the flow. Same as jumping in front of a moving Silver Train like Orko Silver Corp, thinking it will stop just because you expect it to or so desire it to. That Silver Train, like gold, has left the station. So, in gold's case you're thinking about going short gold then better make sure it's a quick trade cause else you're going to loose more than just your shirt.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart

Gold Spot Weekly Chart November 18, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

On to the weekly for direction and confirmation of our trend. Up or down? Stupid question I suppose...well...for the intellectually challenged maybe a solid question?

Time to get the neon signs back from under the dust again. One shows how YeOldGoldNugget feels about the weekly chart and the other gives a visual indication of the trend.

What more does one need to know?

OK then, MACD looks good and is making higher and higher high's which is extremely bullish. Stochastics has been trading for a little over 2 months in oversold zone. As you can see from the chart, the last big rally got gold trading in oversold area for as much as 7 months! YOINKS!

RSI is not the best of indicators to use when looking at the weekly chart of gold, with that I mean, don't go opening a weekly chart, seeing gold in oversold at RSI and deciding to dump your shares or something like that :-)

Better is it to watch stochastics...when this goes to far towards 60 then I'd start contemplating about selling or taking profits. That is, if you're riding the waves like I am.

Surf's up!

So to round up :

Entering now, probably not THE best of idea's, better wait to see if gold will break this trend line. If in the next days you see gold moving up to 1150, 1155, 1160,...then its a fair bet that 1200 will be knocked down in the very same breath. Remember also that gold could be finishing the Head and Shoulders pattern which has a target of 1350

If you from now see gold opening lower, closing lower, lot of red candles, bit of sideways trading without making new higher grounds than the air is out of the balloon and we need a refill. You'll know and recognize it when it happens. This thus could indicate gold wanting to trade lower and possibly heading back to trend line 2.

Just wait and let the market come to you. Clearly the trend is up, but short term there could be danger ahead. Last thing, the dollar seems to be caving in under the enormous buying which has been going on in the gold market. A high gold price does not bode well for the dollar and looking at the weekly chart of gold and seeing where this could go...not a far stretch of the imagination to think what will happen with the dollar when gold is trading at 1350.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Orko Silver Chart November 03, 2009

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Silver train is a comin',
think I'm gonna get on now, oh, yeah.
Silver train is a comin',
think I wanna get on now, oh, yeah, oh, yeah.
Silver rain is a fallin',
fallin' up around my house, oh, yeah,
silver rain is a fallin', fallin' up around my house, oh, yeah, oh, yeah.

And I did not know her name, and I did not know here name,
but I sure love the way that she laughed and took my money.
And I did not know here name, and I did not know her name,
but I sure loved the way that she laughed and called me Honey.

Any chance Orko Silver Corp was around in '73?

Mick's right about wanting to get on though! Never mind about the money taking part, that is just for the ticket, at the end of the ride you will be well reimbursed.

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Orko Silver Daily Chart November 03, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Orko Silver Level 2 Quotes - Hotstocked.com

Am I allowed to be excited? What a day! Now I had decided for myself to wait for a breakout before doing another chart on Orko Silver. Not much sense doing a chart if certain conditions have not been met,...right?

But today, they were met and more then so!

However, lets rewind to that very moment when everybody was still busy cleaning the puss out of their eyes. Orko Silver Corp was already looking at a lower opening of 0.86. What a bummer I thought. Another hour passed and we were already looking at 0.85 on the boards. Couldn't get any better.

But then, suddenly around 10:10 am I noticed gold steadily increasing and after just a few moments we were already trading around 1079 ;-)
The action was too strong, something had to have happened. Turned out later that India was buying IMF gold

Well, as of that moment all bets were off.

As of 11:00 am Orko Silver was on a rise and destined to break 1.00. The rise today was on pretty decent volume and with some good bids around 0.95.

Looking at the chart, all indicators are bullish. I could not find one thing to award a red minus on the chart, not a single thing! Only green green green, I also checked the weekly chart of course. We have an MACD which could do a bullish crossover anytime, stochastics and RSI are again showing significant upside potential and we could move a bit higher now before reaching overbought again.

There is still the possibility of the market reacting to the cup and handle depending on what volume we get when breaking the 1.04. If momentum is good, expect everyone to jump on board, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy and thus a bullish scenario.

We are in November now, so that means that either this or next week we could be expecting the long awaited news release in our mailbox. That could provide us with enough sparks to validate and enforce the Cup and Handle. This is me hoping, hope you understand that...as I always say, always reach for the stars and touch the sky.

Orko Silver surged over 12% today and closed at 0.97 +0.100 (11.49%)

Oh, about the chart, you'll see that I have already taken a new Fibonacci low to draw my retracements, that means I'm now looking at the 0.81 as our new low. Going back and using the August low as start point of my Fibonacci Retracement invalidates last Octobers rally....and that would not be correct. In October we rallied to 1.04 and now we are retracing from that rally. That is how you have to see it.

Fibonacci wise the stock price shows some strong action, breaking all Fibonacci levels and thus from that I would be looking at Orko Silver making a break for the 100% Fibonacci level and thus a break of 1.04, either tomorrow or the next days. Depending upon the actions of gold and silver of course.