The Dollar's Demise and Gold's Resurrection

The Dollar Consolidates while the Markets recover.

US Dollar Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Here is a short follow up on my most recent article 'US Dollar Extends Gains' written on December the 22nd. In that article I summarized the following :

To summarize, short term, yes we are in an UP trend, the chart confirms that. However, RSI has reached overbought. MACD is trending higher but with choppy performance. We are trading farther and farther away from the 30 and 50 MA so a consolidation is getting more and more likely to happen from here.

Mr. market was soon to follow this advice cause December 23 was the start of the consolidation/correction for the dollar after extending its gains from a low of 74.356 on December 2 to a high of 78.449 on December the 22nd.

Moving Averages

10 MA : 77.784
30 MA : 76.349
50 MA : 75.916

As of writing the dollar is trading at 77.388 and is thus already trading below the 10 MA. December 27 saw us crossing below the rising trend line indicating that the steam is out of this kettle for sure!

Looking at the chart and all indicators I reckon looking up from here is wishful for those who are long dollar but not very realistic. Down is where I would look. Short term and long term. Market manipulation excluded then cause I am no match for that.

I say manipulation because if you have a look at the charts from Early December and in particular December the 2nd. The dollar starts to rise and right at that time gold starts to drops. Now, OK, I can understand all the dollar/gold relation and safe haven and such...

...but what I do not get is why even after having such a crisis, after knowing what the dollar is worth now or actually ISN'T worth after the stimulus packages, TARP, FED printing presses, Bank bailouts, Company bailouts,...investors are still buying dollars. So...who are these very first buyers driving up the price and starting this Christmas rally in the dollar?

This is no rally based on valid fundamentals. NO Sirree!

So, let me see if I understand Mr. Market? Ok?

So, December 2, gold breaks down and the dollar rallies or vice versa, the dollar rallies and gold breaks down. So, later we get word from the European mainland that Greece, Spain and Ireland are in deep...um...horse manure? Is that the right noun to use? Up to their arm pits in the proverbial debt-pit.

So, because the Euro takes a beating, the dollar who for months has had the leading role in our documentary as being the biggest decliner now steps aside and lets the euro play leading role for a while?

Hm? What does not sound right in this motion picture?

This sounds to me like too much artistic freedom on behalf of the director of this documentary. My original remarks remain, unless the dollar succeeds to AND close above 80.00 and STAY above 80.00 the dollar is in my books at least very much in a downward trend.

US Dollar Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Weekly then, well this hasn't improved much. I'm still not swayed, not even by the rally we had since the start of December. It is still too insignificant a move to even be treated as such. For me, I would stay far far far away from any long positions in the dollar for the moment.

From the MACD indicator we can see this is still clearly trending below the center line and thus still bearish as indicator. Histogram is also declining.

The ADX or Average Directional Indicator is in some sort of limbo on the weekly chart? Don't know if this is a chart bug or if the -DI and the +DI just happen to run parallel for the last couple of days.

Maybe it is forming a wishing rod and hoping then to break it in the right place and have their wish come true? Who knows?
Maybe even a dowsing rod? Searching for water? No,..must be an oil dowsing rod then.

Anyway, until this market takes direction again ADX is probably not a good indicator here on the weekly besides than the fact that we see that there is some sort of sideways action to expect perhaps.

Long term like I said, until we clearly break above 80.00 I consider the trend which was downwards still very much intact. Despite the short rally.

I don't know how many more lessons Mr.Market needs but sooner or later this dollar/gold relation will be gone and out the door for GOOD!

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

• New Video: As the Dow Goes, So Goes the Country
• New Video: Has the dollar bottomed out?
• New Video: Crude Oil: Lower Levels Ahead?
• New Video: It’s Official Silly Season for Gold
• What do supertraders have in common
• Two Major Forces Collide in the Index Markets
• What’s Gold’s Next Stop?
• Introducing the Perfect Portfolio
• Free Email Trading Course Copy

US Dollar Extends Gains

The Dollar Increases on the Euro's Decline.

US Dollar Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

I'll just do a quick run down on the chart.

I've added the ADX chart. Again on the ADX for those who have not used this indicator before, the Average Directional Index can determine trend strength regardless of the market direction. This non-directional oscillator is based on a range of 1 to 100 (although movements over 60 are rare). If the line is under the 20 mark, the trend is considered to be weak. If the line is above the 40 mark, the trend is considered to be strong. The ADX line is built on the results of two separate technical indicators, the +DI (force of up-moves) and the –DI (force of the down-moves). The default for this study is 14 periods which takes into the consideration the measurements of the +DI and –DI for the last 14 periods.

Knowing that and looking at the chart, you can clearly see that the -DI has had the upper hand for most of the year since March 2009. That changed however early December when the dollar started rallying on the very bad news that was coming out of Europe and in particular from Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Have a read through following article.

The MACD or Moving Average Convergence Divergence is clearly trading upwards and on the daily trading above the center line. It has not been above the center line since March 2009. So daily and thus short term the trend is UP.

RSI or Relative Strength Index has reached the overbought zone.

To summarize, short term, yes we are in an UP trend, the chart confirms that. However, RSI has reached overbought. MACD is trending higher but with choppy performance. We are trading farther and farther away from the 30 and 50 MA so a consolidation is getting more and more likely to happen from here.

US Dollar Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

MACD, well we are still trading below the center line which confirms that weekly we are still not out of the woods yet. The histogram however shows a nice steady increase, one which qualifies as being strong and steady.

RSI is hovering around 50 which leaves plenty of room either UP or DOWN.

From earlier on in the article you already read about the ADX indicator. Well, then you know that the blue line does not tell you anything about the direction but merely the strength of the trend. Our blue line thus was increasing from March 2009 until the beginning of December 2009. Now because the dollar was dropping since March our blue line thus indicated that there was a strong DOWN trend.

Now that we see the ADX bending down and going lower we can thus assume that the strength of the down trend has decreased.

The +DI however was trading upwards but has now flattened out so I will have to wait and see if we get any higher beyond from where we are now.

From the chart we also see that we are now trading above the 10 and 30 MA on the weekly. That still leaves us the 50 MA at around 80.56. Until we have clearly taken out the 80.00 there is no difference to the long term trend...which is still DOWN by the way.



YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

• New Video: As the Dow Goes, So Goes the Country
• New Video: Has the dollar bottomed out?
• New Video: Crude Oil: Lower Levels Ahead?
• New Video: It’s Official Silly Season for Gold
• What do supertraders have in common
• Two Major Forces Collide in the Index Markets
• What’s Gold’s Next Stop?
• Introducing the Perfect Portfolio
• Free Email Trading Course Copy

Orko Silver Chart December 18, 2009

Orko Silver Marches Onwards.

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

Looking at the daily chart we see Orko Silver again since the last two days trading below the 10 MA. With the whole correction in gold and silver I must say that Orko Silver held up pretty well.

The daily chart all in all is, well...not extremely good. Not a total disaster but no total happy camp either. Very short term this could go further down. That is if I go by the negative divergence which I see on the chart. You see, while Orko Silvers price is trading higher from late November to mid December, on the MACD we already see a decline which is a negative signal and thus bearish. We are also trading below the 10 Moving Average. RSI or Relative Strength Index is just about nearing 50.

With this bearish thought in mind I have to say, looking back at the combined action of these last days...doesn't really seem like there is a lot of downside here. So will this negative divergence lead us to a price of $1.14 which coincides with the 30 MA or will we need a correction to the 50 MA at $1.06?

Well, I for one, I didn't put it on the chart but there does also seem to be some support at $1.10 so I'm looking at either the 30 MA at $1.14 or somewhere around $1.10. Anything below that is shopping season, my 2 gold nuggets then.

Looking at the volume leads me only to positive thoughts. Nice, steady volume, plenty of action for all to either sell or buy their shares. MA volume is running for the last month with an average volume starting with 250K and running up to 450K. And those are averages mind you!!

So, to summarize, daily and thus in short term one might expect either a little bit down to levels I indicated above or we will go further sideways like we have done the last couple of days.

Orko Silver Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

Weekly is a whole different matter. The little correction and also the slowdown in the up trend is but a mere blip on the weekly chart. On the weekly there is no sign of any bearish signals. That is NONE!

We are still steadily trading above all Moving Averages. Volume is steady and increasing when looked at the MA. (the red arrow)

MACD shows a slight decrease in the histogram but on the weekly still too small to make any difference to the leading trend...which is still UP!

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

• New Video: As the Dow Goes, So Goes the Country
• New Video: Has the dollar bottomed out?
• New Video: Crude Oil: Lower Levels Ahead?
• New Video: It’s Official Silly Season for Gold
• What do supertraders have in common
• Two Major Forces Collide in the Index Markets
• What’s Gold’s Next Stop?
• Introducing the Perfect Portfolio
• Free Email Trading Course Copy

Free Email Trading Course

Again, a lot of new readers with perhaps a lot of questions about the terms I use when I do my charts and what to look out for. Here is the article with the email trading course sign up from MarketClub which highlights most of these points. Have a read and see if it is anything which might add to your trading skills. There is an unsubscribe link when you are done which works by the way. Anyway, here is the article :

First of all I want to thank you for having me as a guest today!

My name is Adam Hewison. You might want to Google Me to confirm what I am about to share with you.

There are plenty of people out there that create 'exclusive email courses' with little or no credentials to actually backup their teachings. So, I think it’s right that I share a little bit about myself with you before we even start.

I was a former floor trader on the IMM, IOM, NYFE and LIFFE as well as a risk manager of a large, multinational corporation in Geneva, Switzerland. I also have written books on forex trading and trend following. In 1995, I founded INO.com and later co-founded MarketClub. I’ve been in the trading biz for over three decades and have seen it all. I created this course as a way to give back and share trading tips and techniques that I still use in my trading today.

In my Free Mini Email Course, I will show and explain the tools and strategies you need to increase your success rate in the marketplace.

1. The importance of psychology in price movement
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3. Understanding of technical price objectives
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5. How to trade with moving averages
6. How to use point and figure trading techniques
7. How to use the RSI indicator
8. How to correctly use stochastics in your trading
9. How to use the ADX indicator to capture trends
10. How to capitalize on natural market cycles.

Plus, you will you will learn all about fibonacci retracements, MACD, Bollinger Bands and much more.

Just fill out the form and we’ll get you started right away.

Every success,
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President, INO.com & Co-Creator, MarketClub

Is Gold Ready for its Next Move Up?

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

Well, after doing my silver chart last night I also did the daily and weekly chart of gold but didn't get around at posting them. I now have a little bit more time so here it goes. The charts are from last night so gold was then still trading at $1124 and has as of this morning increased to around $1130.

So, the idea I had last night and earlier this week is only being confirmed. We are however still not in the clear. For that to happen I'd like gold to trade again above $1150. There could thus still be danger from breaking down.

But, looking at the chart, gold seems to have found support at the 50 MA around $1120. So that means the $1100 is hopefully slowly but steadily disappearing from our sights.

I've also drawn another support level at $1100 because of the action in mid November and the trend line which rests at that level now. So that means there is some additional support for gold here and that could thus explain why the 50 MA held and why gold is trading back up from here. Maybe more investors are seeing this as support?

From the chart you can see that the Average Directional Index has turned down since hitting our high of $1126.37 and the ADX went from over 40 to about 30 now which is still within acceptable boundaries for me. As you also can see, the +DI has now turned down and is now below the -DI. This means that the force of the down move (-DI) was stronger than the force of upward moves.

So, if I only was to look at the ADX indicator then this chart would be deemed negative...however looking at all other indicators makes me wonder if like silver, gold is not finding some support here, new momentum and a perhaps a fresh leg up from here?

MACD looks bearish and is turning down. However when I look at the histogram I see that one declining which also leads me to wonder whether this is looking to head back up?

RSI or Relative Strength Index tells me we are again in buy territory. Sure, we are not below 30 and thus not oversold but around 45 is plenty of room for gold.

Thus, to recap my daily, the same pretty much holds for gold as I indicated in my silver chart. In gold's case, we need to hold the $1100 and for silver we needed to hold the $17.00.

To me there are enough indications which could indicate that we should be looking up from here instead of further down. If gold however decides to move to $1100 and break the trend line then all bets are off and I will be forced to look at lower levels.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

On to the weekly then, this chart of course looks better than the dailyy cause the correction we had from the last couple of days just looks like a tiny blip on my weekly chart. Nothing to worry about anyway.

Weekly I'm still looking at my target of $1350.

The correction which started December the 2nd has brought us from $1226.7 down two trend lines and we are holding on the weekly 10 MA.

Weekly thus gold is still trading above all Moving Averages which is of course a good thing. Also, MACD tells me gold is still in an up trend as we are trading above the center line. There is a small correction noticeable in the blue line which is now turning down but that doesn't mean anything right now. Histogram has declined a bit which is a negative but looking back at the correction nothing to worry about and perfectly normal.

ADX on the weekly is clearly still bullish and the force of up moves is still far greater than the force of the down moves.

To summarize...YeOldGoldNugget is still looking at a bullish gold chart and combined with that some pretty exciting months bound to come.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

• New Video: S&P Going UP..or DOWN?
• New Video: Let’s Take a Fresh Look at Crude Oil
• New Video: Key Levels to Watch in the S&P 500
• New Video: The gold market continues to steam roll ahead!
• New Video: A look at the dollar index
• New Video: What do supertraders have in common
• New Video: Two Major Forces Collide in the Index Markets
• New Video: What’s Gold’s Next Stop?
• New Video: How long will Dow stay Bullish?
• New Video: Has Gold Topped Out for the Year?
• Has the S&P Index Topped Out for the Year?
• CRB Index insight video
• Are You Laughing or Crying About Markets?
• Introducing the Perfect Portfolio
• What does winter hold for Crude Oil?
• Free Email Trading Course Copy
• New Video: ETF GLD is analyzed

Orko Silver Chart December 08, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

Last time I did another article, Orko Silver was still on its breakout to its new recent high of 1.25. Since 1.20 was my initial target I'll settle for 1.25. From the MACD you could already see the divergence decreasing these last days and on the 7th of December Orko opened at 1.13 which was below the 10 Moving Average.

Not all that strange considering current events, gold and silver correcting, the dollar experiencing a little Frankenstein moment which will have its effect on the stock market. But not withstanding those events, Orko Silver has kept a steady pace finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement.

Short term I see a bearish MACD crossover on the chart. It will remain to be seen whether we will go sideways from here or whether we break the support we seem to have around 1.14? That all depends on how far a correction we will get in gold and silver I suppose.

Till now Orko has kept up quite well if not beyond expectation!


Only one reason for that my opinion then...lots of backing and lots of support for Orko Silver from the market. Whether amongst investors or amongst fund managers. Orko Silver is not easily cast away like some other stocks. With this I mean, if push comes to shove and certain funds need to be freed, Orko Silver will probably come last on that list rather than first.

What also leads me to this rather bold statement? Well,..

1. Because I am the writer and that is what I do, to boldly go where no man has gone before
2. VOLUME
3. Management

The first one I think needs no explanation, the second one, well, just look right and then look left, nuff said about that and last but not least, management...well, you gotta hand it too them, they got the goods and they WILL deliver. My 2 goldnuggets.

Support from the 30 MA at 1.06, the 50 MA at 1.01...trust me, we DO NOT need to look further down ;-)
(there's also the Fibonacci lines to look at for support)

Orko Silver Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

Weekly! Anyone see that darn wizard Merlin running around on these charts? Hm? Oh well, magical nonetheless.

As you can see from the chart, it has not been that long since Orko Silver was trading above the center line again on the MACD chart...meaning UP TREND.
So, since September we again have after a long and for most holders a tedious time, Orko Silver is back on its up trend.

The resistance at $1.00 is behind us and will from now on hopefully go through life with a new name,...namely...support! For my spiritually minded readers, Orko Silver broke the resistance, the resistance however was not counting on a speeding 1,000,000 pounds Silver train and sadly passed away only to reincarnate thereafter into support.

It is a cycle like any other.

So, next target I'm looking at is definitely the 1.40. This will probably not be broken in one try. When we get to that time frame this will show on the chart and when we cross that bridge I will long have posted another chart.

So, long term outlook still very good.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

• New Video: Let’s Take a Fresh Look at Crude Oil
• New Video: Key Levels to Watch in the S&P 500
• New Video: The gold market continues to steam roll ahead!
• New Video: A look at the dollar index
• New Video: What do supertraders have in common
• New Video: Two Major Forces Collide in the Index Markets
• New Video: What’s Gold’s Next Stop?
• New Video: How long will Dow stay Bullish?
• New Video: Has Gold Topped Out for the Year?
• Has the S&P Index Topped Out for the Year?
• CRB Index insight video
• Are You Laughing or Crying About Markets?
• Introducing the Perfect Portfolio
• What does winter hold for Crude Oil?
• Free Email Trading Course Copy
• New Video: ETF GLD is analyzed

Gold's Relentless March Continues!

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

Since I did my last chart I've been doing some minor adjustments to my trend lines. Only minor ones as you'll see. Just compare the two daily charts for a moment.

Only difference is, the trend lines now align perfectly and every other one is 50 points away from the next one. I don't know whether this is a coincidence to have them lining up so perfectly but there are too many points to highlight on the chart which sorta rules out coincidence...at least to me.

For instance...the bottom trend line started November/ December 2008 at around 750 (low to be exactly 756,20 at December 07, 2008). Were we to follow that trend line until now we would indeed with the combined normal trading action have hit the 1000 mark around September / October 2009.
Also from the chart you will see the upper trend line being hit in February 2008, on February the 20th to be precise. If I use that high and draw a new trend line parallel with my other trend line and also at exactly 50 points from the lower one (the 4th), take a look where gold took a breather from a couple days ago!

On November the 24th I posted an alert on my stock-house blog to let my readers know that a possible dip was coming. You can now see why!

Sure, it could break the upper trend line straight away but always better to take some profits off the table. That way you have some funds available to buy stocks on the low if it does turn down.

On with the chart, you'll see that from the beginning of November gold has broken through several trend lines, three to be precise. Now, if you know that each channel represents 50 points than that gives you 3 x 50 which equals 150 points increase already since the beginning of November when we were still trading at 1050.

So, starting from 1050 in early November, 3 channels up gives us 1200. Now from the chart you'll clearly see that it broke short of the 1200 and after hitting 1195 started trading down. It was a quick pullback which coincided with the Dubai debt issue seemed like a very violent correction as it went down and hit a low of 1136, a little bit under the lower trend line. Gold was quickly brought back up again and together with the 10 MA as support was quickly making its way to the upper most trend line again and has since yesterday clearly broken it.

Trading now around $1215, so definitely above the upper trend line which sorta leaves me wondering where this is going to end? In my last article I indicated getting to 1200 would be no problem. From the looks of things I'd say no problem indeed!

So now what?

Well, from the chart you'll see already on the daily we are a whopping $232 away from the Moving Average 200 ;-)
Don't know if this is a record or not since my charts only go back for 10 years but from what I can see on the daily in those 10 years....IT IS!!!

Does that mean I'm now looking downwards for gold? HECK NO!

No time to be betting against gold right now, no matter what RSI or MA tells you. At least, that's what I think. If mean, if you see gold moving up channel after channel, gaining 50 points in a couple of days and another 100 points over the course of less than a month with no signs of even looking back to the carnage it is wreaking havoc upon amongst those who are short.

Golden HAVOC!

So, does the daily chart please YeOldGoldNugget? A WHOLEHEARTEDLY YES! It is the relentless action of gold, the maybe historic gains gold is making now. Not simple factors to ignore, my 2 gold nuggets.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

Weekly is where gold does its magic! Is it magical? Well, can't you see the magic going on in the weekly chart? I sure can!

Again, mind you, I can only look back 10 years in market club and from what I can see gold has never seen such strong performance like it has these last two months. Absolutely amazing to say the least!

From the chart you can see we are still or could still be completing our head and shoulders pattern which we broke out off from the beginning of October 2009, That alone gives us a long term price indication of about 1300 to 1350.

Looking at the MACD,...if ever someone needed to write a book and describe one of the most bullish of MACD's then surely gold's MACD or something similar would be shown. Blue line above red line, wide gap ever increasing, steady increase is also shown in the gray divergence cubes which increase steadily over time. That is just what one needs to see and will always see when a stock or index is undergoing a strong uptrend.

I've added another indicator, the Average Directional Index, this can determine trend strength regardless of the market direction. This non-directional oscillator is based on a range of 1 to 100 (although movements over 60 are rare). If the line is under the 20 mark, the trend is considered to be weak. If the line is above the 40 mark, the trend is considered to be strong. The ADX line is built on the results of two separate technical indicators, the +DI (force of up-moves) and the –DI (force of the down-moves). The default for this study is 14 periods which takes into the consideration the measurements of the +DI and –DI for the last 14 periods.

Knowing that and looking at gold's ADX chart you can clearly see the +DI above the ADX which indicates a trend upwards. ADX is also looking to go higher.

If gold keeps up its relentless action which it, looking at the weekly chart, is bound to do then by February 2010 we might already be looking at 1300 or more.

Stranger things have happened.

I think we have a clear winner here! Gold...and silver...bound to astonish most and catch many off-guard and with their pants down.

To finish my article I'll give a couple supports daily and weekly.

On the daily we have support from either the 10 MA at 1184, the 30 MA at 1129. I'm disregarding the 200 MA (984) for obvious reasons. Of course, there are also the trend lines to look for to offer support, 1200, 1150, 1100,...

On the weekly we have support (and also from the trend lines) from either the 10 MA at 1096, the 30 MA at 1002. I'm disregarding the 200 MA (788) for obvious reasons.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

• New Video: Key Levels to Watch in the S&P 500
• New Video: The gold market continues to steam roll ahead!
• New Video: A look at the dollar index
• New Video: What do supertraders have in common
• New Video: Two Major Forces Collide in the Index Markets
• New Video: What’s Gold’s Next Stop?
• New Video: How long will Dow stay Bullish?
• New Video: Has Gold Topped Out for the Year?
• Has the S&P Index Topped Out for the Year?
• CRB Index insight video
• Are You Laughing or Crying About Markets?
• Introducing the Perfect Portfolio
• What does winter hold for Crude Oil?
• Free Email Trading Course Copy
• New Video: ETF GLD is analyzed

Silver Could Be on One Heck of a Ride!

Silver Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

Couple of highlights, well,...a lot of highlights on this chart actually. The most important ones on this chart however would be the divergences. Take a look at the chart and in particular last year August 2008. You'll see the red line I've placed there following the lower lows silver is making. This line is thus sloping downward.

Tilt your eyes a bit down and look at the other red line below the MACD. That line is making higher lows. So, there is a divergence because the MACD is advancing upwards before the stock is doing so. The stock at that moment is still trading downwards. Taking a clearer look at the MACD you'll see it was making higher lows so there was a positive divergence emerging.

As the naming implies, positive,...meaning a bullish signal. A divergence is also a clearer and more reliable signal then a simple MACD crossover. Even then, there are also different levels and strengths of signals, for instance, a crossover on the center line is a stronger signal than a crossover in the lower or upper zone while a divergence beats any crossover as to signals.

Now, move your eyes to the right to last September, notice the red line making higher highs? Now look down and take a look at the MACD. That one is making lower highs. So we have a divergence again. This time the MACD is down trending while the stock is still making higher highs. This is what is called a negative divergence and thus a bearish signal.

October 19th is when I would have gotten out when I would have been long. Taking some profits off the table and waiting for confirmation of the signal. This case, the divergence did in fact turn out to be a bearish signal as the stock made a clear break downwards from October the 25th.

So, look for those to aid, not to guide!

I've also drawn a resistance line across the chart at 18.00 which coincides with earlier points of support and resistance. Now, it is a resistance but one which soon will be broken and with great ease.

For now, I'm looking at a retest of either the 10 Moving Average or the bottom of the trend line which would be anywhere around the 17.00 level.

Do not however expect too much downward pressure on silver or gold as that will not happen. Up is still the trend. Short term thus maybe a little bit down but when we've taken our little breather I expect us to be trading back to where we left of sooner rather than later.

Silver Spot Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis  (What's this?)

Weekly is as usual where the magic happens! Silver's chart is no different here cause looking at this one is just like reliving October the 5th all over again. We are already trading above 18.00 and we are looking for a definite break above 18.00 on the weekly chart. Could silver finally be on the brink of making some of the same steady gains gold has made comparatively?

With that I mean, gold has since last year October 2008 not only reached its all time high, it has completely smashed it to smithereens! Silver has yet to hit that all time high but could be on the verge of doing the same. Don't know what will happen but the chart is telling me silver has some catching up to do and chart wise things are really lining up for a possible major increase or case of playing catch up.

You can also see the upper trend line going up from October 2008 and after breaking that trend line in June 2009 and going further down we've made our new lower trend line which has held from July on.

What I'm looking at is adding an even higher trend line to the chart which should tell you I'm already looking at a silver price of 21.00. When silver breaks the upper trend line and thus breaks the 19.00 then getting to 21.00 is like talking a walk in the park.

MACD is trending up but the gap is not getting wider. Not yet anyway...that will come...only a matter of time. Just need to drop a little before taking out 19.00 and heading for higher highs.

Looking at both charts I'm extremely bullish on not only most silver juniors but as an investor in Orko Silver, of course also very bullish on the markets reaction towards Orko Silver when the spot price of silver is looking to break 19.00 and more to come in the weeks ahead.

Now, I have no crystal ball but I do try to recognize turning points and have on occasion spotted them in the past so maybe just need to go with the flow.

Last thing, don't get scared riding gold or silver's wave. To those who've followed today's action in gold will know that any down attempts are quickly brought back up again. Like clockwork. Too much basis and fundamentals for gold not to go higher. My 2 gold-nuggets then.

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