YeOldGoldNugget's Blog Spot: Retracement

Showing posts with label Retracement. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Orko Silver Chart December 08, 2009

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Last time I did another article, Orko Silver was still on its breakout to its new recent high of 1.25. Since 1.20 was my initial target I'll settle for 1.25. From the MACD you could already see the divergence decreasing these last days and on the 7th of December Orko opened at 1.13 which was below the 10 Moving Average.

Not all that strange considering current events, gold and silver correcting, the dollar experiencing a little Frankenstein moment which will have its effect on the stock market. But not withstanding those events, Orko Silver has kept a steady pace finding support at the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement.

Short term I see a bearish MACD crossover on the chart. It will remain to be seen whether we will go sideways from here or whether we break the support we seem to have around 1.14? That all depends on how far a correction we will get in gold and silver I suppose.

Till now Orko has kept up quite well if not beyond expectation!

Orko Silver Corp - Developing One of the Worlds Largest Primary Silver Deposits

Only one reason for that my opinion then...lots of backing and lots of support for Orko Silver from the market. Whether amongst investors or amongst fund managers. Orko Silver is not easily cast away like some other stocks. With this I mean, if push comes to shove and certain funds need to be freed, Orko Silver will probably come last on that list rather than first.

What also leads me to this rather bold statement? Well,..

Because I am the writer and that is what I do, to boldly go where no man has gone before
VOLUME
Management

The first one I think needs no explanation, the second one, well, just look right and then look left, nuff said about that and last but not least, management...well, you gotta hand it too them, they got the goods and they WILL deliver. My 2 goldnuggets.

Support from the 30 MA at 1.06, the 50 MA at 1.01...trust me, we DO NOT need to look further down ;-)
(there's also the Fibonacci lines to look at for support)

Orko Silver Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Weekly! Anyone see that darn wizard Merlin running around on these charts? Hm? Oh well, magical nonetheless.

As you can see from the chart, it has not been that long since Orko Silver was trading above the center line again on the MACD chart...meaning UP TREND.
So, since September we again have after a long and for most holders a tedious time, Orko Silver is back on its up trend.

Pan American Silver Bar - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial Mint

The resistance at $1.00 is behind us and will from now on hopefully go through life with a new name,...namely...support! For my spiritually minded readers, Orko Silver broke the resistance, the resistance however was not counting on a speeding 1,000,000 pounds Silver train and sadly passed away only to reincarnate thereafter into support.

It is a cycle like any other.

So, next target I'm looking at is definitely the 1.40. This will probably not be broken in one try. When we get to that time frame this will show on the chart and when we cross that bridge I will long have posted another chart.

So, long term outlook still very good.

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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 28, 2009

By 79Atoms on Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

A quick update after a couple hours into trading. The downward force on the commodities markets is getting too strong for Orko Silver to bear. The 0.90 support has broken and we are looking for support of the 50 MA line around 0.85. If that doesn't hold this stock will go down to around 0.81 before we will see selling pressure decline and buying increase.

Like I said yesterday, we will see 1020 in gold and 16.00 in silver before we will see renewed interest.

Orko Silver Daily Chart Update

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

My earlier chart has an error on it. The Fibonacci Retracement lines should be drawn like on the updated chart. The 0.90 was a support but in my updated chart this coincides with the 38.2% Retracement level. The top should coincide with the 100% level and the bottom and thus, the start of the uptrend, should coincide with the 0% Fibonacci Retracement level. We are now retracing from an earlier uptrend.

2009 Copyright Northwest Territorial Mint - 100oz Bar

As you can see from the chart we are now hovering at 0.87 which coincides with the 23.6% Retracement level. Normally, when a stock has had an uptrend and we get a pullback, traders look at a bounce back up from either the 61.8% or 50% level. Now, since we have already broken through those levels it is unlikely the 23.6% Retracement level will act as a support. Only thing that will add a bit of support around the level where we are now is the 50 MA line which coincides with somewhere around 0.85.

If tomorrow the 16.00 for silver holds then Orko Silver will hold around 0.85 and 0.87, if it not only holds but we get a bounce up for silver then most everyone will decide the bottom has been set and will start buying again and we might get a close in the green. That would be the optimistic picture which I'm holding on to for now.

Google Finance Sector Summary Chart

Chart is courtesy of Google Finance

Some heavy losses across the board and the commodities markets are bearing the brunt of taking the biggest losses inflicted today.

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

As you can see from the gold chart I posted. There is the potential for an even bigger drop, that is if the 1017 or 1020 supports don't hold. Just as you know, it is not out of the ordinary for gold to make such a correction before heading further up. The RSI and stochastics are indicating we are at or very near oversold levels so a possible reversal could be soon knocking at the door.

Just pray or whatever one does, rub your gold coin, that the 1017 and 1020 hold cause if they don't better make sure to get some money on the sides cause it will be bargain shopping time again across the junior markets. For the day-traders, get out there where you have enough profits and get in where prices are cheap and fundamentals are strong.

Don't take losses easily, do so only after the fundamentals of the company you are invested in have changed for the worse.

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Thursday, October 15, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 15, 2009

By 79Atoms on Thursday, October 15, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

A quick run down here. Orko Silver opened lower at 0.98, silver by then was already trading lower around 17.40. The morning trading saw some big volumes of shares traded which got the price up to 1.00. Sadly a little after twelve silver got pulled down again pulling down on commodities.

All in all not a bad day, again very large volume of shares traded, around 830K. But that's not all, I missed this one, got alerted to it by another Orko Silver trader and after checking it out I must say that indeed that looks like a Cup and Handle continuation pattern. There are some points to consider whether this qualifies as a Cup and Handle.

Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.
Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.
Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which is conforms with Dow Theory.
Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement is, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.
Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.
Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.
Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.

Taken from stockcharts.com

I'd say we qualify based on those points!

If the breakout occurs then we are looking at a possible target of 1.40 which is the depth of the cup added to the high of the cup. That would be adding (1.00 - 0.60) + 1.00 = 1.40

Lets hope the pullback in gold and silver is over and done with quick smart. Its just a pullback. Gold pulled back to the 10MA line and that was with hitting a low of 1046. Silver did the same however it made a bigger dip under the 10MA and hit a low of 17.29.

Gold and silver could fall a bit lower to complete the shake out and then head up again to continue making the run to breach 1100. Now, that will not be this week but it will come on the boards in the time to come.

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