YeOldGoldNugget's Blog Spot: MA

Showing posts with label MA. Show all posts

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Mexivada Mining Corp. Chart November 20, 2009

By 79Atoms on Sunday, November 22, 2009

Mexivada Mining Corp. Daily Chart

Mexivada Mining Corp. Chart November 20, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Mexivada Mining Corp. Trend Analysis.

Some Friday's action that was wouldn't you agree? I am a shareholder of Mexivada Mining Corp. myself and got contacted by a friend who asked me if I would do a chart of Mexivada and I was of course happy to comply with his request.

Hadn't he asked me I'd probably had done one myself considering the perfect breakout and trend reversal popping up on Mexivada's chart.

If you care to take a look at the daily chart you'll see I've put some Fibonacci lines on there. I took extreme care in placing and aligning the Fibonacci lines. The only way I think they could be placed is by aligning the 23.6% line with the bottom at 0.185. That very same bottom which on October the 8th acted as a support as you can see from the chart. From that day on we went back up again.

Sadly, the rally which started October 8 failed to cross the 50.0% line, it however made a high of 0.31 and thus just reached it but from that day on October the 13th the stock was destined to fall back to the support level of 0.185. That low was hit on Thursday and Friday people woke up, realized,...WOW...undervalued, hit low,...MUST BUY!

Anyone wondering what happened Friday. That is what happened. Market realization in full effect!

Looking at the Moving Average Convergence Diagram (MACD) we see a very bullish center line crossover coming on the charts which is very very bullish.

On the daily chart with Friday's action we have broken above the 10 MA (Moving Average) AND above the 30 MA. There are no better indicators to tell a chartist that this stock is on the move again! Extremely bullish I'd say. I love to do charts like this with all these aligning indicators turning positive and bullish.

So daily looks very very good indeed. On to the weekly.

Mexivada Mining Corp. Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Mexivada Mining Corp. Trend Analysis.

What does this tell us. Could the positive daily chart turn into a negative by looking at the weekly? Well, in short. NO! Definitely not!

You can clearly see the 0.20 line here acting both as support AND resistance. (also when I say 0.20 I mean somewhere between 0.18 and 0.20) Now we have come to the time where the 0.20 will start acting like support instead of acting like a resistance like it did early 2009.

What can one see more from the weekly. Well, last week could turn out to be the turning point week for Mexivada. After 7 weeks of mostly down trading and mostly red candles at least since last week finally a very distinguishable large blue candle.

Also on the weekly chart is what to me looks like a Rising Three Methods pattern emerging. Now, I know, I use it on the weekly chart and it are not 3 days/3 candles and such....well...one method, two methods or three methods,...either way I look at it...this thing is going up no matter how many methods!

YeOldGoldNugget is bullish on Mexivada.

My further advice, if this ever gets at or below 0.185 again....START BUYING.

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Sunday, November 15, 2009

Orko Silver Chart November 13, 2009

By 79Atoms on Sunday, November 15, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Friday the 13th! Truly a unique day since it occurs at least once, but at most three times a year. 2009 turns out being a super year for Friday the 13th's since we've had three this year, one in February, March and November.

When we look at Orko Silver's Friday the 13th's...strangely on both previous occasions, the next trading day following the 13th saw a lower low while Friday the 13th itself saw a higher high? That must be some odd coincidence? Check the chart, on every Friday the 13th you'll see we hit a high of a rally and the next trading day we went lower. The lower candlestick is easily visible in February, it is the blue candlestick with the long lower wick and in March it is the red candlestick in the middle. The candlestick before each of them is the Friday the 13th one.

Enough with the superstition. Time to look at what the chart is telling us. As you will know of course, the daily is used to get a short term look or to better find an entry point into the stock...while the weekly chart is used to spot the trend...which in Orko's case is up by the way.

The last couple of days Orko has been battling with the 1.00 barrier and has since last Friday sorta crossed it or rather closed at it ;-)
If this were a border dispute, I'd say there have been many attempts to cross the border and head for the inland. The more attempts the higher the probability of breaching, that is just pure mathematics. Same goes for Orko Silver.

Of the previous 2 months, Last Friday was in a way the third attempt to breach the 1.00 barrier. Now, Orko Silver has set up camp at the border again.

Now, previous attempts where lacking in some departments. This third attempt has in a way a lot going for it. It still has a Cup and Handle which could get completed,...if the market so desires. We have an emerging double bottom pattern emerging starting mid September, I've highlighted this on the chart by using the red arrows, which follow a W-shape which forms the double bottom. The double bottom is there but this one does not comply with all necessary points needed to qualify as an actual double bottom.

All in all, last couple months saw very decent volume and certainly when compared to the months July and August. Things are definitely picking up. Next trading weeks should bring us further above 1.00 and establishing a definite breach of the under 1.00 figures.

Orko Silver Weekly Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

As you can see from the weekly chart, we are definitely in an uptrend. MACD is again above the center line and trading upwards. From the chart you can see we are trading above all the Moving Averages so, above the 10, 30 and 200 MA.

I've added some other points on the chart which I would have used to enter or exit the stock. Might be of use to you when trading other stocks. The sell point of 1.80 was obvious, we've had the 10 MA crossing below the 30 MA and going lower, besides that, the earlier trading days saw lower and lower closes. We've had a last up burst but the very next day again a confirmation of wanting to go lower so a perfect time to get out.

I would have bought again at 0.40, mind you I have to tell you, I am a bit more of an aggressive trader so safer would have been to have waited for the MA crossover which meant getting in at around 0.60. But that would have left you with some very cold feet in July and August since the stock went back to those lows.

So always look at the weekly chart. That would have told you that ditching your shares around 0.60 probably was not the smartest of things to do.

Where are we now? Pretty much the same as the daily but with stronger confirmation of trend...which is pretty much up. I'm looking for a continuation of the current trend and thus higher grounds for Orko.

If I see any change in action I will post a quick summary.

Last week's highlight taken from Pan American Silver's last news release :

Pan American has built or expanded and commissioned five new projects in the last six years and its eight mining operations are performing as expected. The Company is now focusing its development efforts on the La Preciosa silver project, in Durango, Mexico. Pan American and its joint venture partner, Orko Silver Corp., announced earlier this year that a comprehensive exploration and development program is currently underway on the plus 32,000 hectare property. Pan American's goal is to complete a feasibility study and be positioned to make a production decision for La Preciosa by the end of 2010.

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Thursday, October 29, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 29, 2009

By 79Atoms on Thursday, October 29, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

A lot of highlights on my chart as you will notice. I will try to explain cause there is an order in them. They start at the left following each candle and explanation. Here it goes, for those who remember my October the 5th article I did in which I made it quite clear as to where I thought we stood and what one should do at that moment. Well, that October the 5th was actually the start of the rally in gold reaching 1070.

It was thus also the start of the rally for Orko Silver and at that very point in time is where my 0.0% Fibonacci line begins. Exactly at the low of that very day which was about 0.816. The rally lasted until October 14, you can spot it on the last chart as it was the first red candle (hammer) after a long series of blue (green) candles.

That gave us the high of the rally and with that our 100.0% Fibonacci line. In our case this is 1.041. Those are the numbers, the rest falls into place as retracement levels. One normally draws a Fibonacci chart like in this case, after an uptrend has occurred and one needs to find out if a pullback occurs, at which levels there could be support.

You can see from the chart that after the rally the pullback was until the 50.0% Fibonacci line and that level held for 4 days when on day 5 we got the false breakout to the 61.8% retracement level. A sucker's rally is what it turned out to be, looking at in hindsight.

Pan American Silver Bar - 2009 Copyright Northwest Territorial Mint

After the false breakout, what actually was the breakdown in gold and silver we got our downward march. Luckily for us, the shakeout in gold came to a standstill and on our chart that perfectly coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci level.
And as of this moment we are already heading back up.

So chart wise I'd like to see another up day tomorrow and a close above 0.95 which is a clear break of the 61.8% Fibonacci level but also puts us above the 10 MA line.
If that happens, all lights are green for the Orko Silver speed train to blast through 1.00 and beyond.

The momentum is definitely there, we had some decent volume being traded which was around 370K. Chart looks good again. Gold and silver look good to go again, the headlines making the news on Wall street were Stocks Rally Sharply On 3Q Gross Domestic Product.

Allow me to translate that one for my readers, I do provide media translation assistance, for a minor fee I will even come to your home and will translate directly all the news stories you are watching on your television station.

So, when it reads, Stocks Rally Sharply On 3Q Gross Domestic Product, that means,...

Pack your bags cause we are heading south again in Dollar-ville

So, on with Orko I have some latest news, some will already be aware of this but I wanted to make contact with management and have it verified before I posted it online.

In discussion with IR :

within 2 to 3 weeks we should get a couple of news releases regarding infill drilling, metallurgical testing and probably exploration drilling, starting next week with news on the infill drilling
Ben and Gary in Mexico, returning end of next week
George and Mike on their way back from South-Africa , returning early next week
PAAS investing in infrastructure, roads, offices, power generator ,... at La Preciosa

There was also mention of results coming in the coming days or beginning of November. The time frame could very well be true but the nature of how good the results would be are however not verified. It is my belief that they will be good but that is just my opinion, I also heard from another contact that the metallurgical recovery rate could go up but again that is unconfirmed. We will have to wait and see what the news release will bring.

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

Chart is courtesy of Kitco.com

You can clearly see that yesterday, Wednesday October 28 at around 16:00 we made what looks like our first bottom at around 1026. From there on some slow but steady progress, until next morning that is because after only 25 minutes into opening at the New York Nymex there were some strong buyers lifting the price from 1032 to over 1037 and a little while later we were already trading at 1046.

Johnson Matthey 1 Kilo Gold Bars - Image ©2005-2009 Northwest Territorial Mint

You can see from Kitco's 3 day comparison chart and my chart that indeed getting over 1042 was needed to give this rally any sort of significance. Now that we have indeed broke our 3-day low, this now adds to the strength of our rally. It could have been different. Gold could have rallied to 1042 and we could have seen doubt or fear again. We didn't! Gold kept going and beat its 3-day low and is now looking to head back up the 10 MA line. That's not the line on the chart I've posted, it can only be seen on the daily chart.

That means that gold should head back up to 1055 and beyond. To keep it simple, on the daily chart all things that need to point up are pointing up so therefore I am looking first at getting to 1055. If that not only holds but has no problem going higher than it would be fair to assume that getting to AND over 1070 will not be all that far of a stretch.

Gold Spot Daily Chart Update

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

I've now posted the daily chart to put things into perspective. From today's action you can see we seem to have bounced back up from the 50.0% retracement level. The 0.0% Fibonacci I use here coincides with the low we made late September before we rallied to 1070 (100%). Getting to and above 1050 would bring us back above the 10 MA line.

You can see that were we are at right now 1046, that this is above the 61.8%. Only thing that remains is the last little hurdle before we hit 1070 again.

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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 28, 2009

By 79Atoms on Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

A quick update after a couple hours into trading. The downward force on the commodities markets is getting too strong for Orko Silver to bear. The 0.90 support has broken and we are looking for support of the 50 MA line around 0.85. If that doesn't hold this stock will go down to around 0.81 before we will see selling pressure decline and buying increase.

Like I said yesterday, we will see 1020 in gold and 16.00 in silver before we will see renewed interest.

Orko Silver Daily Chart Update

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

My earlier chart has an error on it. The Fibonacci Retracement lines should be drawn like on the updated chart. The 0.90 was a support but in my updated chart this coincides with the 38.2% Retracement level. The top should coincide with the 100% level and the bottom and thus, the start of the uptrend, should coincide with the 0% Fibonacci Retracement level. We are now retracing from an earlier uptrend.

2009 Copyright Northwest Territorial Mint - 100oz Bar

As you can see from the chart we are now hovering at 0.87 which coincides with the 23.6% Retracement level. Normally, when a stock has had an uptrend and we get a pullback, traders look at a bounce back up from either the 61.8% or 50% level. Now, since we have already broken through those levels it is unlikely the 23.6% Retracement level will act as a support. Only thing that will add a bit of support around the level where we are now is the 50 MA line which coincides with somewhere around 0.85.

If tomorrow the 16.00 for silver holds then Orko Silver will hold around 0.85 and 0.87, if it not only holds but we get a bounce up for silver then most everyone will decide the bottom has been set and will start buying again and we might get a close in the green. That would be the optimistic picture which I'm holding on to for now.

Google Finance Sector Summary Chart

Chart is courtesy of Google Finance

Some heavy losses across the board and the commodities markets are bearing the brunt of taking the biggest losses inflicted today.

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

As you can see from the gold chart I posted. There is the potential for an even bigger drop, that is if the 1017 or 1020 supports don't hold. Just as you know, it is not out of the ordinary for gold to make such a correction before heading further up. The RSI and stochastics are indicating we are at or very near oversold levels so a possible reversal could be soon knocking at the door.

Just pray or whatever one does, rub your gold coin, that the 1017 and 1020 hold cause if they don't better make sure to get some money on the sides cause it will be bargain shopping time again across the junior markets. For the day-traders, get out there where you have enough profits and get in where prices are cheap and fundamentals are strong.

Don't take losses easily, do so only after the fundamentals of the company you are invested in have changed for the worse.

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