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Showing posts with label Valuation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Valuation. Show all posts

Monday, October 26, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 26, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart
Orko Silver Chart October 26, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Christmas TreeAnyone else got the same feeling today like it was Christmas? Who called Santa Claus anyway? Looks like the entire world was celebrating Christmas with the exclusion of only a handful of countries like Russia, Indonesia, South-Africa and our ever beautiful Brazil. The rest across the board was ALL red. That was index wise but gold, silver and oil fared no better!

Hm, how did our precious undervalued little Orko Silver fare on such a day?

Well, not too bad really. I am getting more and more confirmation of Orko Silver being in a solid trading range between 0.90 and 1.05. That also means there is a bottom here somewhere. Perfect opportunity to either add to a position or to enter fresh. Try a couple stinker bids.

As you can see from the chart the up days where on pretty large volumes and those days were not a single event. Plenty of buying went on. Today I got word from a friend who has access to full level 2 quotes and he said another large bid of 100K was placed at around 0.90. So the interest is definitely there and that also means that that same interest will also be here when Orko Silver releases their news. Now they will still try to place stinker bids and who can blame them on a day like this. Who wouldn't want to get Orko Silver shares that cheaply after seeing the valuations I did earlier.

Today Orko Silver opened lower at 0.93, well, at least nobody will be saying that a lower opening was not all that unexpected on a day like this. We also hit a new 3 day low of 0.92 a bit later on in the day but we did manage to close higher at 0.940 -0.020 (-2.08%) due to a late bidder getting 2000 shares.

So yes, this day of slaughter brought us again under the 10 Moving Average line. I see the MACD a bit trending down short term but the move is still within acceptable boundaries and a reversal could be not all too far away. The RSI or Relative Strength Indicator is nearing the 50 line again which has proven itself to be a point at which we could see a bounce back up.

That is providing we don't get a continuation of today's action on the global markets. If the drop continues then I expect Orko Silver to maybe look up the 0.90 again and then trade sideways for a while.



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Sunday, October 25, 2009

The Guessing Game of Orko Silver


I was looking over Orko Silvers latest presentation again and thinking, why not post a couple variations on the valuation of Orko Silver now and in the future? Purely for entertainment purposes.

To start off this guessing game I will explain some variables which we will be using as our input. The first valuation I do will be one using present day information.

Orko Silver Corp. Resource Estimates (Indicated/Inferred)
Resource Estimate
Source : News Release February 19, 2009

The current indicated silver resources the Joint Venture has is rounded up 70 Million ounces. If you thus hear any mention of JV or Joint Venture then by that is meant Orko Silver and Pan American Silver.

Cash Cost per Ounce
Pan American Silver 2009 Production Forecast
Source : Pan American Silver Fact Sheet

The cash cost per ounce is derived from the chart above in which Pan American Silver does a round up of cash costs per mine they have. From that list I can then choose an average or a bearish or a bullish one.

Metallurgical recovery

Source : News Release April 17, 2008

Metallurgical recovery also plays a part in the valuation. What this means is actually, to get the silver from the ore you need to go through certain processes (cyanidation,...) to remove all other materials you don't want like other base metals, impurities, and more and eventually remain with the pure silver. Because of that process anywhere from 5% to 15% and more can be lost. That is why companies have something like a Metallurgical Testing done to see how much the recovery rate will be. Orko Silver has released in their news release which you can read above that they expect a 90% recovery.

Orko Silver ownership
Orko Silver ownership
Source : Orko Silver Corp. homepage

So, with these numbers we can get to work. I saw someone on a forum use the highest cash cost per ounce Pan American Silver has on their overview and I will also use that in my first two conservative valuations. So, here it goes, the first one is the current situation, with the second one I am a little more bullish on Orko's indicated resources (double) and the silver price ($21), the last one I decided to let loose.

Indicated Resources : 70 Moz
45% of Indicated Resources : 70 x 0.45 = 31.5 Moz
Metallurgical Recovery 90% : 31.5 x 0.90 = 26.75 Moz
Cash Cost per Ounce : $7.86
Silver Spot Price : $17.64
Value Silver after cash costs : $17.64 - $7.86 = $9.78
Value of silver : $9.78 x 26.75 Moz = $261.61 M
Shares Outstanding : 132M
Value (Value silver/Shares) : 261.61 / 132 = $1.98

Indicated Resources : 150 Moz
45% of Indicated Resources : 150 x 0.45 = 67.5 Moz
Metallurgical Recovery 90% : 67.5 x 0.90 = 60.75 Moz
Cash Cost per Ounce : $7.86
Silver Spot Price : $21.00
Value Silver after cash costs : $21.00 - $7.86 = $13.14
Value of silver : $13.14 x 60.75 Moz = $798.255 M
Shares Outstanding : 132M
Value (Value silver/Shares) : 798.255 / 132 = $6.04

Indicated Resources : 250 Moz
45% of Indicated Resources : 250 x 0.45 = 112.5 Moz
Metallurgical Recovery 90% : 112.5 x 0.90 = 101.25 Moz
Cash Cost per Ounce : $6.06
Silver Spot Price : $30.00
Value Silver after cash costs : $30.00 - $6.06 = $23.94
Value of silver : $23.94 x 101.25 Moz = $2423.925 M
Shares Outstanding : 132M
Value (Value silver/Shares) : 2423.925 / 132 = $18.36

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