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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Pan American Silver Posts Record Silver and Gold Production in the Third Quarter

Pan American Silver Corp.

TSX: PAAS
NASDAQ: PAA
Pan American Silver Round - 1 Ounce - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial Mint
Nov 10, 2009 20:47 ET

Pan American Silver Posts Record Silver and Gold Production in the Third Quarter


Earnings and cash flows up on strong production and higher metals prices

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Nov. 10, 2009) -

(All amounts in US dollars unless otherwise stated and all production figures are approximate)

Link to Pan American Silver Posts Record Silver and Gold Production in the Third Quarter

Pan American Silver Corp. (TSX:PAA)(NASDAQ:PAAS) today reported unaudited financial and operating results for the quarter ended September 30, 2009. The Company also provided an update on operations.

This earnings release should be read in conjunction with the Company's MD&A, Financial Statements and Notes to Financial Statements for the corresponding period, which are available on the Company's website at www.panamericansilver.com, and have been posted on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

Third Quarter 2009 Highlights(1)
  • Silver production increased 31% to a quarterly record of 6.4 million ounces
  • Gold production increased 331% to a quarterly record of 28,017 ounces
  • Cash costs(2) declined 26% to $4.91 per payable silver ounce
  • Record quarterly sales of $118.6 million, an increase of 49%
  • Cash flow generated by operations, before changes in non-cash operating working capital(3), was $43.3 million, or $0.50 per share outstanding
  • Mine operating earnings(2) increased 124% to $34.7 million
  • Net income was $17.4 million or $0.20 per share, an increase of 172%
  • San Vicente mine produced a quarterly record of 869,000 ounces of silver
  • In October, announced and mailed a friendly offer to acquire Aquiline Resources Inc.

(1) Financial information based on Canadian GAAP; results are unaudited; percentages compare Q3 2009 with Q3 2008

(2) Cash costs per ounce, and mine operating earnings are non-GAAP measures; for detailed descriptions see pages 4 and 11 of the MD&A, respectively

(3) Cash flow generated by operations, before changes in non-cash operating working capital, is a non-GAAP measure. This non-GAAP measure is used by the Company to manage and evaluate operating performance and the Company considers this measure to better reflect normalized cash flow generated by operations.

"This was a very strong quarter for Pan American," said Geoff Burns, President and CEO. "We set new quarterly records for silver and gold production. Our cash costs declined to $4.91 per ounce of silver on the strength of increased byproduct credits. We posted net income of $17.4 million or $0.20 per share and moreover, we generated cash flows from operations, before changes in non-cash operating working capital(3), of $43.3 million or $0.50 per share."

Burns continued; "The main drivers of our third quarter performance were a well executed startup of the San Vicente mine expansion, which has been producing silver beyond our expectations, and a solid quarter at Manantial Espejo. Both these projects, now operating mines, are clear upgrades to our portfolio of assets and are now delivering the kind of returns we hoped for when we made the decisions to invest in their development."

Financial Results


Pan American posted record sales of $118.6 million during the third quarter of 2009. Sales were 49% higher than a year ago, mainly due to greater quantities of silver and gold sold. Silver and gold sales accounted for 63% and 17% of quarterly Company revenues respectively, which has increased Pan American's exposure to precious metals to 80% of total revenues. Sales during the third quarter were also 6% higher than in the second quarter of 2009.

Cost of sales during the third quarter was $61.8 million, 17% higher than in the third quarter of 2008. The increase was directly attributable to greater quantities of silver and gold sold, but was partially offset by the ongoing cost control measures that were implemented at all our operations late last year. Importantly, cost of sales was 6% lower than in the second quarter of 2009.

Mine operating earnings for the quarter were $34.7 million, up 124% from the third quarter of 2008 and $11.2 million higher than in the second quarter of this year. The increase was the result of higher sales volumes mainly from Manantial Espejo and San Vicente and higher realized gold prices, partially offset by increased cost of sales and higher depreciation and amortization charges at both Manantial Espejo and San Vicente.

During the third quarter, the Company generated $43.3 million in cash flow from operating activities, before changes in non-cash operating working capital(3) or $0.50 per share, which represents an increase of 96% compared to a year ago and $7.2 million more than in the previous quarter.

Net income for the quarter was $17.4 million or $0.20 per share, which was 172% higher than a year ago and $7.2 million higher than in the second quarter. Net income for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 was $34.2 million or $0.40 per share. The improvement in the current quarter's net income was driven by higher gold prices and increased silver and gold production coming from Manantial Espejo and the new San Vicente mine expansion.

At September 30, 2009, Pan American had cash and short-term investments of $149.5 million, which represents an increase of $37.1 million from the second quarter of 2009. The increase was the result of positive cash generated from operating activities and unrealized gains of $8.6 million in short-term investments. The strong operating and financial performance pushed the Company's working capital position to $258 million as of the end of September 2009.

Pan American's financial position is excellent. The Company has no debt and its $70.0 million credit facility remains untouched. Additionally, with major capital expenditures at Manantial Espejo and San Vicente now complete, the Company expects to continue generating strong operating earnings and cash flows and is well positioned to fund future development projects.

Production and Operations


During the third quarter of 2009, Pan American set a new Company silver production record of 6.4 million ounces, a 31% increase from a year ago. Once again, Alamo Dorado was the Company's largest silver-producing asset and contributed 1.6 million ounces of silver, followed by Manantial Espejo and the new San Vicente mine, which contributed 1.0 million and 0.9 million ounces of silver respectively. La Colorada had a good quarter, producing 0.9 million ounces of silver, while Morococha added another 0.7 million ounces of silver to the Company's total thanks to higher silver grades and throughput.

San Vicente's new processing plant and mine expansion, which was commissioned in April of this year, was in its first full three months of commercial production during the third quarter. The mine has had an exceptional startup, consistently exceeding management's expectations for silver production. Both processed ore grade and metallurgical recovery have been running well above forecast and this trend is expected to continue for the balance of this year.

Pan American continues to increase its gold production, which reached 28,017 ounces in the third quarter. Manantial Espejo alone produced 20,280 ounces due to higher than expected gold grades and recoveries. The Mexican operations contributed an additional 6,719 ounces to total gold production. Since the first quarter of 2009, gold has become the Company's single most valuable by-product and now accounts for approximately 17% of total revenues.

Consolidated cash costs for the quarter were $4.91 per ounce of silver net of by-product credits, well below the Company's guidance for 2009 and 26% lower than a year ago. Gold by-product credits had a significant positive impact on costs at Manantial Espejo and Alamo Dorado which posted cash costs of $(3.11) and $4.37 per ounce of silver, respectively. Cost control measures helped maintain cash costs at both Morococha and La Colorada below our annual guidance; however, cash costs at Huaron remained high due to the negative effect of the closure of the La Oroya smelter.

Future Growth

Pan American has built or expanded and commissioned five new projects in the last six years and its eight mining operations are performing as expected. The Company is now focusing its development efforts on the La Preciosa silver project, in Durango, Mexico. Pan American and its joint venture partner, Orko Silver Corp., announced earlier this year that a comprehensive exploration and development program is currently underway on the plus 32,000 hectare property. Pan American's goal is to complete a feasibility study and be positioned to make a production decision for La Preciosa by the end of 2010.


Recent Developments


On October 30th, 2009, Pan American mailed a formal take-over bid circular and related documents to all Aquiline Resources Inc ("Aquiline") security holders, pursuant to the previously announced friendly take-over bid for Aquiline. The transaction value implied by the offer for Aquiline's common shares as well as for each series of outstanding Aquiline warrants and Aquiline convertible debenture is approximately Cdn $626 million based on closing prices on October 13, 2009, being the last day prior to the public announcement of the transaction.

Based on Aquiline's public disclosure, Aquiline's primary asset, the Navidad silver development project in the Province of Chubut, Argentina, is one of the world's largest undeveloped silver deposits. If successful, the acquisition will add a world-class silver development project to Pan American's portfolio and will provide an opportunity for the Company to build on its recent successful experience in Argentina. Pan American believes that it is uniquely positioned to develop Navidad because of its proven construction and development team, its operating expertise, its exemplary community and government relations in Argentina, its strong environmental and safety record, and its financial strength.

If successful, the acquisition of Aquiline, with its Navidad project are expected to be transformational to Pan American's growth profile and have the potential to propel our annual silver production to an entirely new level.

Pan American's offers will be open for acceptance until 9:00pm Eastern Time on December 7th, 2009, unless the offers are extended or withdrawn. Further details are contained in the take-over bid circular and related documents which have been filed on SEDAR and EDGAR and can be found on the Company's web site (www.panamericansilver.com).

Outlook


During the first nine months of 2009, Pan American produced 17.1 million ounces of silver at consolidated cash costs of $5.57 per ounce of silver net of by-product credits, and 74,080 ounces of by-product gold. With Manantial Espejo in its first year of commercial production and the expanded San Vicente mine performing well above expectations, Pan American is confident that it will comfortably meet its forecasted annual production target of 21.5 million ounces of silver and 85,000 ounces of gold for 2009, excluding production from Quiruvilca. Furthermore, the Company now expects that its consolidated cash costs for the full year in 2009 will be below the previously announced guidance of approximately $6.00 per ounce of silver.

Closing Comment


In closing, Geoff Burns commented; I believe it is fair to say that we continue to deliver on our promises. The current quarter's excellent financial results are a testament to our core strength, building and operating silver mines. Having successfully commissioned two new operations in the first nine months of the year, it is truly rewarding to start reaping the benefits of those investments.

Now looking to the future, I can't think of a more exciting time to be part of Pan American Silver. With our operating mines performing solidly, with silver and gold prices near all time highs and with La Preciosa and hopefully Navidad in our growth pipeline, we are poised to move to the next level, creating new value and generating real returns for our shareholders.


About Pan American Silver


Pan American Silver's mission is to be the world's largest and lowest cost primary silver mining company by increasing its low cost silver production and silver reserves. The Company has eight mining operations in Mexico, Peru, Argentina and Bolivia.

Technical information contained in this news release has been reviewed by Michael Steinmann, P.Geo., Executive Vice President Geology & Exploration, and Martin Wafforn, P.Eng., VP Technical Services, who are the Company's Qualified Persons for the purposes of NI 43-101.

Conference Call


Pan American will host a conference call to discuss financial and operating results on Wednesday, November 11, 2009 at 11:30 am ET (8:30 am PT). To participate, North American and international participants dial 1-480-629-9713. The call will also be broadcast live on the Internet at www.investorcalendar.com/IC/CEPage.asp?ID=151799. Listeners may also gain access by logging on at www.panamericansilver.com. The call will be archived for replay for one week and can be accessed by dialing 1-303-590-3030 and entering pin number 4179606.

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CAUTIONARY NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS

CERTAIN OF THE STATEMENTS AND INFORMATION IN THIS NEWS RELEASE CONSTITUTE "FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS" WITHIN THE MEANING OF THE UNITED STATES PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 AND "FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION" WITHIN THE MEANING OF APPLICABLE CANADIAN PROVINCIAL SECURITIES LAWS RELATING TO THE COMPANY'S AND ITS OPERATIONS. ALL STATEMENTS, OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACT, ARE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. WHEN USED IN THIS NEWS RELEASE THE WORDS "ANTICIPATE", "BELIEVE", "ESTIMATE", "EXPECT", "INTEND", "TARGET", "PLAN", "FORECAST", "STRATEGIES", "GOALS", "OBJECTIVES", "BUDGET", "MAY", "SCHEDULE" AND OTHER SIMILAR WORDS AND EXPRESSIONS, IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS OR INFORMATION. THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS OR INFORMATION RELATE TO, AMONG OTHER THINGS: THE PRICE OF SILVER AND OTHER METALS; THE ABILITY OF THE COMPANY TO SUCCESSFULLY COMPLETE THE PROPOSED TRANSACTION WITH AQUILINE RESOURCES INC. OR TO TAKE-UP AND PAY FOR ANY SUCH SECURITIES, AND THE EFFECTS OF ANY SUCH ACQUISITION ON THE COMPANY; THE EFFECTS OF LAWS, REGULATIONS AND GOVERNMENT POLICIES AFFECTING PAN AMERICAN'S OPERATIONS OR POTENTIAL FUTURE OPERATIONS, INLCUDING BY NOT LIMITED TO, LAWS IN THE PROVINCE OF CHUBUT, ARGENTINA, WHICH, AMONG OTHER THINGS, CURRENTLY PROHIBIT OPEN-PIT MINING AND THE USE OF CYANIDE IN MINING AND WHICH, AS CURENTLY ENACTED, WOULD LIKELY RENDER ANY FUTURE CONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE NAVIDAD PROJECT UNECONOMIC OR NOT POSSIBLE AT ALL; FUTURE SUCCESSFUL DEVELOPMENT OF THE NAVIDAD PROJECT AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS OF THE COMPANY; THE SUFFICIENCY OF THE COMPANY'S CURRENT WORKING CAPITAL, ANTICIPATED OPERATING CASH FLOW OR ITS ABILITY TO RAISE NECESSARY FUNDS; THE ACCURACY OF MINERAL RESERVE AND RESOURCE ESTIMATES AND ESTIMATES OF FUTURE PRODUCTION; ESTIMATED PRODUCTION RATES FOR SILVER AND OTHER PAYABLE METALS PRODUCED BY THE COMPANY; TIMING OF PRODUCTION AND THE CASH AND TOTAL COSTS OF PRODUCTION AT EACH OF THE COMPANY'S PROPERTIES; THE ESTIMATED COST OF AND AVAILABILITY OF FUNDING FOR ONGOING OR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT PLANS AND CAPITAL REPLACEMENT, IMPROVEMENT OR REMEDIATION PROGRAMS; THE ESTIMATED COST AND TIMING OF RAMP-UP OF MANANTIAL ESPEJO AND SAN VICENTE; THE ESTIMATES OF EXPECTED OR ANTICIPATED ECONOMIC RETURNS FROM THE COMPANY'S MINING PROJECTS, AS REFLECTED IN FEASIBILITY STUDIES OR OTHER REPORTS PREPARED IN RELATION TO DEVELOPMENT OF PROJECTS; ESTIMATED EXPLORATION EXPENDITURES TO BE INCURRED ON THE COMPANY'S VARIOUS SILVER EXPLORATION PROPERTIES; FORECAST CAPITAL AND NON-OPERATING SPENDING; FUTURE SALES OF THE METALS, CONCENTRATES OR OTHER PRODUCTS PRODUCED BY THE COMPANY; RECOVERY IF ANY OF AMOUNTS DUE FROM DOE RUN PERU; AND THE COMPANY'S PLANS AND EXPECTATIONS FOR ITS PROPERTIES AND OPERATIONS.

THESE STATEMENTS REFLECT THE COMPANY'S CURRENT VIEWS WITH RESPECT TO FUTURE EVENTS AND ARE NECESSARILY BASED UPON A NUMBER OF ASSUMPTIONS AND ESTIMATES THAT, WHILE CONSIDERED REASONABLE BY THE COMPANY, ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT BUSINESS, ECONOMIC, COMPETITIVE, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES. MANY FACTORS, BOTH KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS TO BE MATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THE RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR ACHIEVEMENTS THAT ARE OR MAY BE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED BY SUCH FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS NEWS RELEASE AND THE COMPANY HAS MADE ASSUMPTIONS AND ESTIMATES BASED ON OR RELATED TO MANY OF THESE FACTORS. SUCH FACTORS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: FLUCTUATIONS IN SPOT AND FORWARD MARKETS FOR SILVER, GOLD, BASE METALS AND CERTAIN OTHER COMMODITIES (SUCH AS NATURAL GAS, FUEL OIL AND ELECTRICITY); FLUCTUATIONS IN CURRENCY MARKETS (SUCH AS THE PERUVIAN SOLES, MEXICAN PESO, ARGENTINE PESO AND BOLIVIAN BOLIVIANO VERSUS THE U.S. DOLLAR); RISKS RELATED TO THE TECHNOLOGICAL AND OPERATIONAL NATURE OF THE COMPANY'S BUSINESS; CHANGES IN NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT, LEGISLATION, TAXATION, CONTROLS OR REGULATIONS AND POLITICAL OR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN CANADA, THE UNITED STATES, MEXICO, PERU, ARGENTINA, BOLIVIA OR OTHER COUNTRIES WHERE THE COMPANY MAY CARRY ON BUSINESS IN THE FUTURE; RISKS AND HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUSINESS OF MINERAL EXPLORATION, DEVELOPMENT AND MINING (INCLUDING ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS, INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS, UNUSUAL OR UNEXPECTED GEOLOGICAL OR STRUCTURAL FORMATIONS, PRESSURES, CAVE-INS AND FLOODING); RISKS RELATING TO THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OR FINANCIAL CONDITION OF SUPPLIERS, REFINERS AND OTHER PARTIES WITH WHOM THE COMPANY DOES BUSINESS; INADEQUATE INSURANCE, OR INABILITY TO OBTAIN INSURANCE, TO COVER THESE RISKS AND HAZARDS; EMPLOYEE RELATIONS; RELATIONSHIPS WITH AND CLAIMS BY LOCAL COMMUNITIES AND INDIGENOUS POPULATIONS;
AVAILABILITY AND INCREASING COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH MINING INPUTS AND LABOUR; THE SPECULATIVE NATURE OF MINERAL EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING THE RISKS OF OBTAINING NECESSARY LICENSES AND PERMITS AND THE PRESENCE OF LAWS AND REGULATIONS THAT MAY IMPOSE RESTRICTIONS ON MINING, INCLUDING THOSE CURRENTLY IN THE PROVINCE OF CHUBUT, ARGENTINA; DIMINISHING QUANTITIES OR GRADES OF MINERAL RESERVES AS PROPERTIES ARE MINED; GLOBAL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS; BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES THAT MAY BE PRESENTED TO, OR PURSUED BY, THE COMPANY; THE COMPANY'S ABILITY TO COMPLETE AND SUCCESSFULLY INTEGRATE ACQUISITIONS AND TO MITIGATE OTHER BUSINESS COMBINATION RISKS; CHALLENGES TO, OR DIFFICULTY IN MAINTAINING, THE COMPANY'S TITLE TO PROPERTIES AND CONTINUED OWNERSHIP THEREOF; THE ACTUAL RESULTS OF CURRENT EXPLORATION ACTIVITIES, CONCLUSIONS OF ECONOMIC EVALUATIONS, AND CHANGES IN PROJECT PARAMETERS TO DEAL WITH UNANTICIPATED ECONOMIC OR OTHER FACTORS; INCREASED COMPETITION IN THE MINING INDUSTRY FOR PROPERTIES, EQUIPMENT, QUALIFIED PERSONNEL, AND THEIR COSTS; AND THOSE FACTORS IDENTIFIED UNDER THE CAPTION "RISKS RELATED TO PAN AMERICAN'S BUSINESS" IN THE COMPANY'S MOST RECENT FORM 40F AND ANNUAL INFORMATION FORM FILED WITH THE UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION AND CANADIAN PROVINCIAL SECURITIES REGULATORY AUTHORITIES. INVESTORS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST ATTRIBUTING UNDUE CERTAINTY OR RELIANCE ON FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. ALTHOUGH THE COMPANY HAS ATTEMPTED TO IDENTIFY IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY, THERE MAY BE OTHER FACTORS THAT CAUSE RESULTS NOT TO BE AS ANTICIPATED, ESTIMATED, DESCRIBED OR INTENDED. THE COMPANY DOES NOT INTEND, AND DOES NOT ASSUME ANY OBLIGATION, TO UPDATE THESE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS OR INFORMATION TO REFLECT CHANGES IN ASSUMPTIONS OR CHANGES IN CIRCUMSTANCES OR ANY OTHER EVENTS AFFECTING SUCH STATEMENTS OR INFORMATION, OTHER THAN AS REQUIRED BY APPLICABLE LAW.



For more information, please contact
Pan American Silver Corp.
Kettina Cordero
Coordinator, Investor Relations
(604) 684-1175
(604) 684-0147 (FAX)
info@panamericansilver.com
www.panamericansilver.com

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Orko Silver Chart November 06, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart
Orko Silver Daily Chart November 06, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Nice action on Friday. We had Orko Silver opening at 0.99 which sadly didn't last for very long it seemed at first. Well, if you take a look at the Kitco silver chart you'll see from the red line that silver got pulled down from 17.55 to 17.35 but then rallied again to 17.60.

If you take a look at the 5 day chart in Google for instance, you'll notice Orko Silver following the drop and rise perfectly. Now that does not mean that Orko Silver is a good silver indicator. Hardly! But taking a look at the following charts shows that at least since the last two months Orko Silver is again following the price of silver.
Orko Silver Daily Chart November 06, 2009
Silver Spot Daily Chart November 06, 2009Continuing with the chart, from the MACD diagram you can clearly see a bullish crossover is appearing on the chart which is of course a positive sign. A little past eleven we had a little handshake with 1.00 after which we said goodbye and started trading lower until we reached 0.94, our low of the day at around three o clock. So, to get Orko Silver to drop from 1.00 to 0.94 took about 55K shares being upped for sale of which 17.5K were actually sold. A last minute buyer managed to buy some 1500 shares and pulled us up right back to where we started from and thus to a close of 0.96.

Orko Silver Corp Level 2 Quotes - Hotstocked.comYou can also see from the chart and the trend lines I've drawn that since this week Orko Silver has broken out of its downward sloping trend channel. That happened on November the 3th on which we saw Orko Silver opening at 0.86 and closing at 0.97, gaining 0.11 cents. So that was the break. The following days we've been holding above 0.95 and last Friday might possibly be the start of a confirmation of Orko Silver finally making a break, a close and a hold above 1.00.

One only has to look at two points, September the 18th, large volume of 2.5 million, a break above 1.00 but no continuation, October the 14th, large volume of 1.1 million, a break above 1.00 but no continuation.

After these two we look out for our third one, November the 6th, only a little brush with 1.00 and insignificant as our third day,...waiting thus for the next day with big volume.

I'll tell you this, the next move with the right volume not only will bring us over 1.00, it will also keep us above 1.00 this time around. So, what am I expecting from Monday? I expect Orko Silver to make another break for the 1.00. If you happened to read my last article on Gold Breaking Out of Upper Trend Channel then I'm sure you know how I feel about it.


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Saturday, November 7, 2009

Gold Breaking Out of Upper Trend Channel

Gold Spot Daily Chart
Gold Spot Daily Chart November 06, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

Lets start by taking a look at the daily chart of gold. As you'll notice I've marked some important highlights on the chart. The bigger, the upper and the lower trend channel are of importance. I've only ever seen others using the lower channel and that is something that I do not get? Why limit yourself, why limit gold in such a narrow space while the last couple of months have shown and proven that gold is ready and has been ready since 2008 to get into a higher trend channel. The lower and center one just...

DO NOT QUALIFY ANYMORE!

I think we have passed that time frame. When I wrote my article at the beginning of October 2009 I was not kidding with the Neon signs.

You can see from the chart why I started using the bigger trend channel. If you take a look at December 2008 you'll see gold made 2 runs for the upper trend line. After the first rally gold consolidated to the 10 MA line and after the second rally gold consolidated to the lowest trend line. From that point which is around January 15, 2009 gold starts to move to the upper trend line and hitting the upper trend line the 23th of January. If you look closer you'll see from that moment that gold keeps trading on or around that upper trend line and does so till we reach February the 10th, 2009.

Johnson Matthey 1-Kilo Gold Bars - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial MintGold then again rallies further above the upper trend line before hitting a high of about 1006 on February the 20th, 2009. It then drops to...AGAIN...the upper trend line and keeps trading at that level for several days until we hit March the 19th, 2009 and reach a point where gold makes a drop towards the lowest trend line. It then plays a bit with the lower trend channel and reaches a low at April the 19th, 2009. Gold starts to rise again and this time back to the upper trend line. It does so, not in a straight line up but with a lot of trading around the center or rather the upper trend line of the lower trend channel.

Gold reaches the upper trend line around the start of June 2009. It then drops again with as target the lowest trend line but only drops after maintaining a 15 day close contact with the center trend line before saying goodbye to it and at the start of July 2009 we see gold moving away and dropping towards the lowest trend line and hitting that, July the 12th, 2009.

From this moment, July the 12th, 2009 could very well be the last time gold is trading in this lower trend channel and thus the lower prices. As you will see from the start of September 2009 there is a break from the lowest trend line, keeping tight contact with the center line before reaching October 2009 and making a break for the upper trend line, consolidating only once in the process. That happened just last week and now we're already firmly back at the upper trend line and as of November 3, 2009 we have broken the upper trend line and have kept above it for 3 days now.

MACD looks good. You'll see that MACD keeps making higher and higher bottoms which is very bullish to put it mildly. RSI only just reached overbought but as you can see and as I've explained before, gold can stay in overbought zone for days and weeks on end. When fundamentals are strong then forget about looking at RSI, better then to look at Stochastics. To each their own of course. Whatever works for you.

Let me continue with the weekly chart.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart
Gold Spot Weekly Chart November 06, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

OK, the weekly chart, this is where we establish and confirm the trend AND direction. Read the highlights and then tell me what you think what all that means and where you reckon gold will go to next? Up or down? 1500 or 750? Who's with me on the 1500? You'll see from the start that September 2007 gold started rallying and didn't stop until it gained...

A WHOPPING 350 POINTS

That brings us to the big consolidation starting around mid March 2008 and bottoming out at the height of our crisis in October 2008. You will remember remember, the 5th of November 2008 or rather the months when all the stimulus package were announced and in fact the very same months that the printing presses were doing overtime.

Sure, it has been a bumpy ride but if you look from the weekly chart, gold not only broke out of our weird Elephant man's right shoulder at the beginning of October 2009 but gold also remained firmly held between the trend lines of the greater trend channel and has since this week broken the upper trend line and is holding above it.

Now, does YeOldGoldNugget dare to say that we are now again at a possible breaking point?

YOU BET YA

Maybe something like what happened at the start of October 2009, maybe a bigger move? Will that rally start right now or will we first make a consolidation? Who knows? One thing I do know, time to go short or bet against rising prices,...probably not THE smartest of things to do right now. If not something you take from this article then maybe this would be a good one to remember.

Also, one of the things most people throw around as argument, or basically because they really don't get it, anyway, it goes like this, 'Gold is just another bubble'...is what they say.

You know what YeOldGoldNugget says about that?

Empty Gold BalloonI'd say we are about this far in our bubble (See image for visual representation). Oh, Oh, Oh, but but...is how it goes when I counter argument them...before they slam another totally idiotic remark my way.

You really have to be sitting down before you read this, better yet, secure yourself firmly to your seat before reading their next moronic argument. Ready for it?

Just see what happened to oil when it reached $147!

Yeah yeah, that might very well be about oil being a bubble, but comparing gold to oil? Comparing gold, a substance which is so rare, which has been used throughout ages and centuries as a precious commodity and a means of preserving wealth. A substance which not only is rare but is rare for a very specific and just meaning. Gold is not formed on this planet, it is formed in our universe. Also, when I say universe I'm actually undervaluing the rarity.

SupernovaGold is not just created in the universe, for gold to come into existence, enormous forces are required. Not even the forces of nuclear fusion working frantically in the center of stars suffice for gold's needed reaction to happen. No! For that to happen we need our stars to go SUPERNOVA!

Only then are circumstances at an ideal for gold to be formed. And no, YeOldGoldNugget is not sucking this one from his thumb. There are some great study's which have been done about the necessary requirements to create gold.

Well, don't know whether you heard the story about turning lead into gold? Turns out those alchemists or transmutationists of back in the days might have not been that stupid at all...at least not in their thinking pattern. Turns out they started with the wrong compound - and a tad short on the required energy - but were right about the process being a possibility. It is thus actually possible to create gold on this planet. Not by using lead mind you but by using an isotope like mercury.

And that is just the start of your efforts, that was the cheapest part by the way, the mercury. However, mercury or Hg as its known from the periodic table has 80 protons. Gold or Au has 79 protons. So, mercury seems to have one proton to many! But since it is the closest family to gold, a prime candidate for our experiment. Sadly, to get mercury to ditch its 80th proton we need a process called electron capture which is performed in a nuclear accelerator. Bombarding our mercury with enough high-energy neutrons will do just that...leaving us with pure gold!

AlchemistSo yes, those alchemists were quite right, however, turns out if they were looking to create a penny's worth of gold from mercury it would take them and are you ready for this... 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years. I do not take credit for the calculation, for that you need to contact Barry L. Berman who is a physicist at George Washington University.

Oh oh oh, I hear, and what about gold's other closest family in the periodic table. 'Left' next to gold so to speak. Who is Mr. Proton 78 looking to trans mutate into Mr. Proton 79? Well, turns out its quite a familiar presence.

Meet Mr. Platinum! Trading at or about $1340. Hm? Using something which is valued at $1340 to create something which is -now- valued at $1090? Well, it is scientifically possible but needless to say...even costlier than using mercury.

This following calculation was found on the Cosmic Conservative website.

The best estimates I’ve seen put the total weight of gold ever mined to be about 160,000 tonnes. A tonne is 1,000 kilograms, so that’s 160,000,000 kilograms. Gold weighs 19.3 grams per mililiter. A mililiter is one cubic centimeter. 160,000,000 kilograms is 160,000,000,000 grams. Which comes to roughly 8,300,000,000 cubic centimeters. There are 1,000,000 cubic centimeters in a cubic meter, so that means the volume of all the gold ever mined is about 8,300 cubic meters of gold. That’s roughly a cube of solid gold 20 meters on a side, or about 65 feet on a side.

In other words, all of the gold ever mined in the history of the earth would fit in a moderately sized house.

So, whenever you hear someone mentioning those two ridiculous claims towards gold then you'll know what to tell them! Comparing oil, a mix of naturally occurring organic compounds from within our earth and which are basically made up of nothing more than hydrogen, carbon and oxygen...TO GOLD? Heretics! The nerve of some people! Any reason is reason enough to drag gold down I suppose. Good luck with that trading strategy in the coming years ROLF :-)

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Thursday, November 5, 2009

Orko Silver - Action Alert by Natural Resource Investor Report

AlertCOMPANY - SPONSORED INVESTOR RELATIONS REPORT

Natural Resource Investor
October 19, 2009
Action Alert


Orko Silver Corp (TSXV: OK; US OTC: OKOFF; Frankfurt Exchg: 063.F)

Orko Silver Advances to the Major Leagues as Pan American Silver Starts JV Development on Company’s La Preciosa Silver Project in Mexico. Major Breakout for Silver Impacts Markets!

La Preciosa Project Now Headed Toward Production Status Within Pan American's Portfolio of Producing Silver Mines. La Preciosa Has the Potential to Become One of the Largest Silver Mines in Mexico – With Orko Silver Having a 45% Carried Interest to Production.

Pan American's First 19 Drill Holes Confirm Orko Results. Current 30,000-Meter Drilling Program Aims to Upgrade and Significantly Expand Resource at One of Largest New Silver Discoveries in the World.

Dear Reader,

There are very few primary silver deposits in the world. Orko Silver's La Preciosa silver deposit in Mexico is presently the 9th-largest, and the 2nd-richest in terms of silver grade.

La PreciosaOn April 14 this year, Orko announced a joint venture with Pan American Silver – presently the second-largest primary silver producer in the Western Hemisphere – to bring La Preciosa to production.

This joint venture is different from all the others and leaves Orko a unique silver player. In this report we explain the new joint venture and the new Orko, and how the company makes an exceptional opportunity for silver stock investors. We also address the initial work performed by Pan American, and the current development plan leading to a Preliminary Economic Assessment (scoping study) planned to be released by the partners early to mid 2010.

Orko has virtually no downside with the joint venture today, because it is fully carried as to all exploration and development costs right up to production. Its La Preciosa Project is the beneficiary of a first-class development program by one of the strongest silver producers in the world today, including a current 30,000-meter drilling program that is one-half resource expansion drilling and one-half in-fill drilling to advance the inferred portion of the resource to the M&I categories.

And Orko's upside is very large. The company's shareholders will essentially benefit from a free ride on the development of this large primary silver deposit – and then the upside of production possibly starting in three to four years.

But first, within 18 to 24 months, as continued exploration and as advanced development of the project proceeds, it should be considered that Pan American may make the offer to buy out Orko for a significant premium. This potential opportunity for investors also comes free with the stock today.

As we say, Orko Silver is a completely unique silver company:
  • Little to no need to dilute its share base; plenty of cash
  • 45% carried interest in one of the largest silver deposits in the world.
  • Partnering with US$1.65 billion-market cap Pan American Silver.
  • Already, with the release of the assays from the first 19 diamond-drill holes completed by Pan American, the Orko results have been confirmed and both partners are excited about this year's new exploration drilling and metallurgical test work to be released in the coming months.
  • Truly exciting resource expansion potential, with a 30,000-meter drilling program now started.
  • La Preciosa could become one of Pan American's largest mines, and potentially one of the largest mines in Mexico.

The Joint Venture Deal


On April 14 this year, Orko Silver and Pan American Silver Corp., jointly announced the formation of a joint venture (JV) to advance Orko's La Preciosa project to production.
  • Pan American earns a 55% interest in the JV by bringing La Preciosa into production. Orko will be fully carried and will end up owning 45% of a producing mine. Until the start of production, Pan American has no earned interest in the project or assets. The cost to bring La Preciosa into production – including all drilling to bring the resource to reserve status, including full bankable feasibility, including the construction of ramps and mill, including all metallurgical work – is estimated to range between US$150 million and US$250 million.
  • Pan American made a C$5 million investment in Orko at C$1.25/share, a significant premium to market.
  • Pan American will spend US$16 million on exploration and development to complete a feasibility study in the next two years.
The unique large-fixed-carried-interest feature of this deal creates a different kind of junior silver player in Orko Silver. Bypassing the conventional ongoing dilutionary features often encountered by juniors in developing major projects on a joint-venture basis, Orko appears to be uniquely positioned with large upside potential. This Alert characterizes this new kind of junior silver company, and...

we endorse the possibility of a major WIN for Orko shareholders.


Current Actions


As announced jointly on June 22, this year's program at La Preciosa consists of 30,000 meters of drilling, with two to four diamond drill rigs active, as well as initiating other project developments including advanced metallurgical testing – all at a cost of US$5.7 million, all being paid by Pan American.

The 30,000-meters of drilling is broken down between in-fill drilling on the Martha Vein to bring the inferred portion of the resource (78 million oz. of silver equiv.) into the measured and indicated categories. This will involve approx. 15,000 meters of drilling.

The other half of the drilling program will explore prominent vein structures within the joint venture property that have been previously discovered by Orko. This drilling will start with the Nancy Vein, where trenching has demonstrated stronger mineralization than did the trenching of the Martha Vein, which contains most of the mineralization thus far discovered at La Preciosa.

About this year's drilling program, Geoff Burns, the President of Pan American, said, "We are set up, we are in the field working and I am extremely optimistic about the potential for a meaningful expansion of the resource base." This statement, from one of the most experienced silver-producing executives, means a lot.

In addition, Gary Cope, the President of Orko, stated that Orko will be "regularly disclosing drill results over the balance of the year." In other words, Orko will NOT be issuing just 12 statements/year about exploration progress as occurs frequently with JVs with majors, rather, like other juniors, will be announcing results from assays as they come available.

Already, as released by Orko on September 8, three key actions have been performed by Pan American.
  1. PAA's Phase-I delineation drilling at La Preciosa consisted of 31 diamond drill holes totaling 8,850 meters. PAA has received results for approx. 6,300 meters of the drilling, the first 19 holes. The holes are located in the heart of the Martha vein structure and were drilled at approx. 50-meter spacing in an area previously drilled by Orko at 100-meter spacing. The drilling has confirmed Orko's drill results at La Preciosa. Phase-II diamond drilling is underway.
  2. In addition to the drilling, PAA has completed 57 trenches on regional exploration targets and collected 557 samples. These results have encouraged PAA to commence drilling on the exploration targets including Nancy, El Vaquero, Baritina, Baritina Norte (Martha North) and Orito Norte.
  3. PAA has also completed 90% of a planned first-phase detailed metallurgical program. These studies are a key component in the upcoming Preliminary Economic Assessment.
Importantly, PAA drill results include assays such as hole BP09-374, which yielded a true thickness of 32.68 meters grading 0.376 g/t gold and 245.4 g/t silver for a silver-equivalent of 267.9 g/t. And drill hole BP-09-359, which yielded 34.77 meters grading 0.278 g/t gold and 202.4 g/t silver for a silver-equivalent of 219.1 g/t. These are significant values, comparable with earlier drilling by Orko at La Preciosa.

Investors in Orko are, in all likelihood, in for an exciting year, as we demonstrate in the ‘Exploration Potential' section of this report below.


Pan American Silver, the ideal partner


In terms of silver production, Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS; TSX: PAA) has the objective of becoming the world's number-one silver producer. In 2008, Pan American had higher production than both Coeur d'Alene and Hecla. However, both of these companies are rapidly increasing their production each year, and analysts expect at least Coeur d'Alene to become larger than PAA. PAA needs to increase global silver production. The company is presently producing from six silver mines located in Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

Pan American Silver Bar - 1 Ounce - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial MintIn 2008, PAA produced 18.7 million oz. of silver, which generated US$338.6 million in sales and earnings-per-share of 31 cents. In 2009, the company's target is to produce 21.5 million oz. of silver at a cash cost of US$6.28/ounce. The company has increased its production for 13 consecutive years.

In the last four years, PAA has successfully built and put into production three new silver mines. This same development team is presently at Orko's La Preciosa Project and plans to bring it to production within as little as three to four years.

PAA's largest mine is at Alamo Dorado in Mexico, producing approx. 4.8 million oz. silver per year. The plan is for La Preciosa to become PAA's new flagship mine with an early production target approaching 7 million oz./year. Clearly, for their newest development opportunity, the Pan American team of engineers, geologists and metallurgists will be delivering their very best. And 45% of this production will belong to Orko.

La Preciosa


La Preciosa is one of the largest primary silver deposits globally. For comparatives, in terms of GRADE, it is second to only the Prognoz Silver Deposit in Siberia, and is believed to be the second-richest silver deposit of magnitude with average grades of 201 g/t silver-equivalent (more than 6 oz./ton).

In terms of SIZE, La Preciosa is already the 9th-largest undeveloped primary silver deposit with 146-million oz. of silver-equivalent in all categories. With this year's exploration drilling, La Preciosa could quickly move up the ladder of primary silver deposits globally.

For a view of the deposit in its regional setting, please click through here.

Click-through here to view the project, including the key deposit area and additional zones to be drill-tested this year.

The Pan American/Orko Joint Venture controls 100% of the 32,400-hectare La Preciosa Silver Project. La Preciosa is ideally located for production, 40 km. northeast of Durango City, Mexico. It is located in the heart of Mexico's prolific Silver Trend, on the Mesa Central along the east side of the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains, with essentially ideal infrastructure for production:
  • 90 minutes from the city of Durango
  • 60 minutes from Durango international airport
  • access by paved highway
  • 8 km. to the national power grid
  • 8 km to rail lines
  • 2 hours by road or rail to smelter
  • water sources directly on property
  • no camp on site, none needed, all workers live at home locally

Resource Estimate

*Silver-equivalent values are based on converting the gold ounces at a 60:1 ratio. A cut-off grade of 100 grams/tonne, or more than 3 oz. of silver/ton, was selected by MDA.

The current resource estimate was prepared independently by Mine Development Associates based in Reno, Nevada. The estimate includes drilling results from 354 drill holes at La Preciosa, all of which have been drilled by Orko over the past 4 years.

The resource included in the Inferred category is presently being upgraded to the higher confidence level of Measured and Indicated categories, with in-fill drilling now underway.

Drill CoreAs mentioned above, the Martha Vein contains the bulk of the resource at La Preciosa, representing approx. 74% of the silver. It is relatively flat-lying, dipping an average of 20 degrees to the west. It has a known strike extent of over four kilometers and varies in down-dip extent between 200 meters to 1.7 kilometers.

The Martha vein varies in thickness from one meter to 40 meters and averages approx. 15 meters. Within that zone are one or more veins and vein breccias which contain the resource-grade material and which average about five meters in width.

The plan is to find another vein greater than or equivalent to the Martha Vein, and then another, while extending and upgrading the resource in the Martha Vein.


Exploration Potential


The exploration potential at La Preciosa is very large. Both partners endorse the concept that exploration will uncover significantly more resources. Drilling is underway now on the highly prospective Nancy Vein, located 1 km. southwest of the Martha Vein.

Trenching results released by Orko in mid-June highlight the potential at the Nancy Vein. Of particular note are trench sample NT09-12, which yielded 4.2 meters grading 1.342 g/t gold and 217.4 g/t silver for a silver-equivalent of 298 g/t, and trench sample NT09-07, which yielded 8.25 meters grading 0.653 g/t gold and 132.4 g/t silver for a silver-equivalent of 171 g/t.

Trenching of the other veins at La Preciosa, including the surface expression of the Martha Vein, have yielded lower silver values near surface – significantly lower values actually – and this highlights the potential at Nancy. The Nancy Vein has been exposed by trenching for a distance of over 450 meters and remains open along strike in both directions.

Extensions of the Martha Vein will also be addressed with new exploration drilling this year, along with drilling of another four prospective veins (El Vaquero, Baritina, Baritina Norte and Orito Norte) discovered with earlier prospecting by Orko, and by the trenching completed thus far by PAA.

Management


Gary Cope, President, CEO, and Director – Mr. Cope has more than 30 years of experience in corporate finance and 12 years as a senior officer and director of various publicly-held companies. He has an extensive background in corporate strategy, as well as significant experience with the financing of publicly-held companies. Mr. Cope arranged financing for the South Kemess project and was instrumental in the negotiations and sale of the South Kemess deposit.

Mike Devji, Executive Vice-President and Director – Mr. Devji is an experienced financier of public companies. Among other achievements, he led a group of investors who financed a 40%-interest in the South Kemess Gold-Copper Deposit in British Columbia, which was subsequently sold for over C$400 million.

George Cavey, P. Geo., Vice-President Exploration and Director – Mr. Cavey has managed early stage through advanced exploration programs worldwide for 30 years as the president of a geological consulting company. He earlier served as president of the Canadian Council of Professional Geoscientists. He was the 2004 recipient of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of BC's Westerman Award, the association's highest honor for a professional geoscientist.

B H (Ben) Whiting, M.Sc., P.Geo., Chief Geologist – Mr. Whiting has 30 years of experience in the international mining industry. He has worked for both major and junior mining companies managing a wide range of operations, from exploration all the way through to production. He also has experience as an advisor to government agencies. Formerly an adjunct professor at Queen's University, Mr. Whiting was awarded the Aaro Aho Foundation's prize in Economic Geology.

Art Freeze, P.Geo., Consulting Geologist, Advisory Board Member – Over the past 40 years, Mr. Freeze has held consulting, supervising and managing positions with several mining companies including Cominco Ltd., Pasminco Exploration, Echo Bay Mines and Pan American Silver Corp. He is president of Stillwater Enterprises Ltd., and served as the primary consulting geologist for Goldcorp Inc. until June 2007.

Outlook


By any valuation measure available, Orko Silver is significantly undervalued, as it presently has a market capitalization of approx. C$90 million, or US$80 million.

Let's consider, for example, the two recent buyouts: Hecla's purchase of 70% of the Green's Creek Mine in Alaska and Coeur d'Alene's buyout of Palmarejo in Mexico. Hecla paid US$750 million for 110 million oz. of silver, or $4.75/oz., and Coeur D'Alene paid $US 1.1 billion for 200 mil. oz. silver, or $5.50/oz.

Assuming Pan American earns its 55% by achieving production, and assuming no discovery of additional ounces at La Preciosa (an unrealistically conservative assumption), this approx. $5/oz valuation from the two buyouts can suggest share valuations for Orko Silver of US$2.46/share (C$2.75/share) on the basis of such comparables. Obviously, however, such factors as additional resources, world silver prices and global economic conditions can offset such notional estimates.

The joint-venture partners' plan is to upgrade the resource, expand the resource and issue a Preliminary Economic Assessment. All positive progress will cause Orko Silver to become more broadly appreciated by the market and potentially lead to significant revaluations of the company.

Taking a broader survey of this sector, there are very few pure-play silver companies in advanced exploration or development today. Canaccord-Adams Research tracks 19 such companies, but only 12 of those offer more than 50% silver in their total resource. Of the 12, deleting those with political concerns, metallurgical problems, or a small resource leaves only a handful to warrant the attention of the serious silver investor.

Concurrently, with silver trading stably in the $15/oz to $17/oz range, this sector holds tremendous potential for large gains in value.

YeOldGoldNugget looks into the futureAgainst this backdrop, Orko stands out clearly from the crowd as the company with a world-class project selected by Pan American Silver. PAA is one of only 4 major silver producers in North America in the position of having the experienced personnel who know exactly the full criteria for development of a major pure-play silver mine.

Further, the unique character of the JV agreement – with Orko having a 45% carried interest all the way to production – leaves this company as a serious primary silver developer, and exhibiting certain unique advantages:
  • No further dilution
  • 30,000-meter drilling program this year, now started
  • 45%-owner of one of the world’s major silver deposits with large growth potential
  • Partnering with one of the best and biggest silver miners
  • And a modest market valuation
We urge you to start to track Orko Silver. Call 1-604-687-6310 and ask for Mike Devji, EVP, or email info@orkosilver.com, and visit http://www.orkosilver.com/.

Thank you,
The Editors
Natural Resource Investor
& World Gold Stock Report



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