YeOldGoldNugget's Blog Spot: Cup and Handle

Showing posts with label Cup and Handle. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Orko Silver Chart November 03, 2009

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Silver train is a comin',
think I'm gonna get on now, oh, yeah.
Silver train is a comin',
think I wanna get on now, oh, yeah, oh, yeah.
Silver rain is a fallin',
fallin' up around my house, oh, yeah,
silver rain is a fallin', fallin' up around my house, oh, yeah, oh, yeah.

And I did not know her name, and I did not know here name,
but I sure love the way that she laughed and took my money.
And I did not know here name, and I did not know her name,
but I sure loved the way that she laughed and called me Honey.

Any chance Orko Silver Corp was around in '73?

Mick's right about wanting to get on though! Never mind about the money taking part, that is just for the ticket, at the end of the ride you will be well reimbursed.

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Orko Silver Daily Chart November 03, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Orko Silver Level 2 Quotes - Hotstocked.com

Am I allowed to be excited? What a day! Now I had decided for myself to wait for a breakout before doing another chart on Orko Silver. Not much sense doing a chart if certain conditions have not been met,...right?

But today, they were met and more then so!

However, lets rewind to that very moment when everybody was still busy cleaning the puss out of their eyes. Orko Silver Corp was already looking at a lower opening of 0.86. What a bummer I thought. Another hour passed and we were already looking at 0.85 on the boards. Couldn't get any better.

But then, suddenly around 10:10 am I noticed gold steadily increasing and after just a few moments we were already trading around 1079 ;-)
The action was too strong, something had to have happened. Turned out later that India was buying IMF gold

Well, as of that moment all bets were off.

As of 11:00 am Orko Silver was on a rise and destined to break 1.00. The rise today was on pretty decent volume and with some good bids around 0.95.

Looking at the chart, all indicators are bullish. I could not find one thing to award a red minus on the chart, not a single thing! Only green green green, I also checked the weekly chart of course. We have an MACD which could do a bullish crossover anytime, stochastics and RSI are again showing significant upside potential and we could move a bit higher now before reaching overbought again.

There is still the possibility of the market reacting to the cup and handle depending on what volume we get when breaking the 1.04. If momentum is good, expect everyone to jump on board, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy and thus a bullish scenario.

We are in November now, so that means that either this or next week we could be expecting the long awaited news release in our mailbox. That could provide us with enough sparks to validate and enforce the Cup and Handle. This is me hoping, hope you understand that...as I always say, always reach for the stars and touch the sky.

Orko Silver surged over 12% today and closed at 0.97 +0.100 (11.49%)

Oh, about the chart, you'll see that I have already taken a new Fibonacci low to draw my retracements, that means I'm now looking at the 0.81 as our new low. Going back and using the August low as start point of my Fibonacci Retracement invalidates last Octobers rally....and that would not be correct. In October we rallied to 1.04 and now we are retracing from that rally. That is how you have to see it.

Fibonacci wise the stock price shows some strong action, breaking all Fibonacci levels and thus from that I would be looking at Orko Silver making a break for the 100% Fibonacci level and thus a break of 1.04, either tomorrow or the next days. Depending upon the actions of gold and silver of course.

choo choo!!

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Monday, October 19, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 19, 2009

By 79Atoms on Monday, October 19, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

OK, silver last night still was trading around $17.40 in Hong Kong. I thought, oh well no harm done. So I was already taking into account the possibility of another sideways day or a day in the red for Orko Silver.

So, by opening in NYMEX I was pretty excited to see silver breaking $17.50 and heading higher. Sadly, for Orko Silver it was not meant to be. Mondays, bloody Mondays...is what the song should have been called but then again, 30 January 1972 was not on a Monday but indeed on a Sunday.

Orko Silver opened lower at 0.94 and the high of the day which was 0.96 was already put on the boards in the first hour of trading. The rest of the day was a tug of war between 0.94 and 0.95. We closed the day at 0.950 -0.020 (-2.06%).

Now, why did Orko Silver close in the red with such a strong move in not only silver but the entire commodities sector, not to mention basically every other sector you can think of pretty much went up today.

I'd tell you if I knew the real answer to that one so you'll have to do with your own reasons, I'd love to hear them.

As you can see from the chart Orko Silver dropped back to the 10 MA line and made a decent low of 0.92. I'm hoping this holds here and goes back up tomorrow. MACD wise it's too early to tell. Could bounce up, could break through the 10 MA and head lower. This depends totally on the market.

We still have some news due from Orko Silver and we still have the Cup and Handle pattern going so I'm still bullish on Orko Silver for the near term. It appears the market did not agree with me disagreeing the earlier Doji but we will see what tomorrows trading action will bring.

The next bit of the article is something I found out about when looking through my MarketClub (my paid subscription charting software / alert service). Didn't know other users also could use some of its features for free so here it goes.

Market Club Trend Analysis
From now on I will also be posting a link to Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

The thing is, I know Marketclub for a while now, I stumbled onto their site when I was looking for better online charts and basically a little bit more than I could with my own brokers website which to put it mildly was severely lacking in the charting department.

Now, I first have to try out everything and see if it really is worth anything before I will use it on my own blog. The courtesy links are due to copyright and legal issues so I have to mention that each time I post a screen-shot of their charts which I actually already kinda did since I try to give credit where credit is due.

But that aside, everyday before I start writing my article I get this Trend Analysis in front of my eyes when I open the Orko Silver chart so I thought, maybe I can use that on my blog. The following is a screen-shot of how it looks like from my mailbox.

Trend Analysis is courtesy of marketclub.

Well, I asked them if I could post the daily trend screen-shot but sadly I was not allowed to legal-wise since you either have to be a paying member (like me) or to register to get these alerts. Well, I can understand that. Therefore, today I will just show you what it looks like and then you can make up your own mind.

Me personally, I don't really need it cause the chart tells me enough to make up my own mind but I can imagine that there are other people that would appreciate a daily trend update on their other stocks. I use MarketClub mostly for their charts, some video's and their alerts which I can configure and which get triggered by such and such event and they then get e-mailed to me when they happen. Has turned out very useful!

The Trend Analysis they do is something any charter with some knowledge can do but for others it could be very useful nonetheless and MarketClub has turned out quite useful for me overall.

So, do with it as you please, I'm not one to promote crap or to lie to my readers nor do I plan to use heavy advertising on my blog nor do I use the AD-sense from Google or what not. Well, I had used none actually :-)

So, no, don't worry, there will be no pop-ups, no pop-unders, no heavy intrusive banners between paragraphs or all over my blog. There will only be one banner posted in the header, sometimes one at the bottom of an article and one in the right column and they will be in tune with the style of the blog and hopefully not intrusive. If they are considered intrusive be sure to comment on that, I sure appreciate any input and will take every response in consideration. The banners I have chosen are directed to respectable websites which I myself have first tried and tested for merit.

Edit October 25th.
New affiliate program with BullionVault. It is not required but those readers that feel the need to contribute and in a way credit me for my work can now do so by clicking on one of the BullionVault banners and consider opening an account with them. You can check out their Governance F.A.Q and find out more about them.

That goes the same for MarketClub. You can check them out by reading their help page or you can check out what they're offering by registering for a free 30-day trial. For those who do, definitely check out the alert section.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 16, 2009

By 79Atoms on Saturday, October 17, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

OK, on October 14 I did see a long legged Doji on the chart but next days action was not of that particular kind so as to give too much credibility to the Doji. If you look back at the earlier Doji I pointed out on September the 22nd. The next days trade completely covered or rather engulfed that long legged Doji. Now, that is a clearer signal indicating to me that there is indeed the possibility of more downward movement coming in the days ahead.

Now, I do not have to that feeling. Sure we opened lower at 0.98 and yes we didn't break the 1.00 barrier but if you take a look at the sector chart then I must admit that Orko Silver really didn't do that badly despite the close in the red of 0.970 -0.010 (-1.02%).

Google Finance - Sector Summary Chart October 16, 2009

Chart courtesy of Google Finance

You can see that the basic materials sector has dropped by 0.87%, now that's not much but due to that there are other silver juniors that were hurt more than Orko Silver.

On with Orko Silver, there is still a good chance that the Cup and Handle continuation pattern will still come to being. Its getting close to the end of October and based on my averages that would be anywhere from around right now and the beginning of November that a news release can be expected. Me, I'm hoping and rooting for next week.

So, chart wise I'm still very bullish on the chart I see before my eyes, I am still awaiting a clear breakout above 1.00. With that I mean solid close and stay above the 1.00 mark. With a possible news release in the pipeline, a closing Cup and Handle continuation pattern with a target of 1.40, Pan American Silver with plenty of money and Orko Silver who has the explorer skills and the goods (La Preciosa),...I'd say...buckle up and enjoy the ride!

As I have explained before, Orko Silver and Pan American Silver are engaged in a drilling program which will last us through the year and beyond. My guess is with looking at the recent friendly takeover of Aquiline Resources by Pan American Silver I'd say there is no time like the present to make sure you take full advantage of the coming bull run in gold, silver and the commodities.

We as investors can do so by investing in either gold and silver junior miners like Orko Silver Corp, Great Panther Resources, First Majestic Silver and many many more or we can buy gold or silver bullion, with that I mean the real physical stuff, not the pixie-dust and fairy-tale things like ETF's but real ounces of gold in coins or bars.

U.S. investors can do so by ordering them through one of the larger bullion online stores like Northwest Territorial Mint or BullionVault.

Canadian investors can order them at the Royal Canadian Mint or look around your area to see if a mint is nearby.

Flags of US and Canada image courtesy of 4 International Flags

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Thursday, October 15, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 15, 2009

By 79Atoms on Thursday, October 15, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

A quick run down here. Orko Silver opened lower at 0.98, silver by then was already trading lower around 17.40. The morning trading saw some big volumes of shares traded which got the price up to 1.00. Sadly a little after twelve silver got pulled down again pulling down on commodities.

All in all not a bad day, again very large volume of shares traded, around 830K. But that's not all, I missed this one, got alerted to it by another Orko Silver trader and after checking it out I must say that indeed that looks like a Cup and Handle continuation pattern. There are some points to consider whether this qualifies as a Cup and Handle.

Trend: To qualify as a continuation pattern, a prior trend should exist. Ideally, the trend should be a few months old and not too mature. The more mature the trend, the less chance that the pattern marks a continuation or the less upside potential.
Cup: The cup should be "U" shaped and resemble a bowl or rounding bottom. A "V" shaped bottom would be considered too sharp of a reversal to qualify. The softer "U" shape ensures that the cup is a consolidation pattern with valid support at the bottom of the "U". The perfect pattern would have equal highs on both sides of the cup, but this is not always the case.
Cup Depth: Ideally, the depth of the cup should retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance. However, with volatile markets and over-reactions, the retracement could range from 1/3 to 1/2. In extreme situations, the maximum retracement could be 2/3, which is conforms with Dow Theory.
Handle: After the high forms on the right side of the cup, there is a pullback that forms the handle. Sometimes this handle resembles a flag or pennant that slopes downward, other times just a short pullback. The handle represents the final consolidation/pullback before the big breakout and can retrace up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more. The smaller the retracement is, the more bullish the formation and significant the breakout. Sometimes it is prudent to wait for a break above the resistance line established by the highs of the cup.
Duration: The cup can extend from 1 to 6 months, sometimes longer on weekly charts. The handle can be from 1 week to many weeks and ideally completes within 1-4 weeks.
Volume: There should be a substantial increase in volume on the breakout above the handle's resistance.
Target: The projected advance after breakout can be estimated by measuring the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup.

Taken from stockcharts.com

I'd say we qualify based on those points!

If the breakout occurs then we are looking at a possible target of 1.40 which is the depth of the cup added to the high of the cup. That would be adding (1.00 - 0.60) + 1.00 = 1.40

Lets hope the pullback in gold and silver is over and done with quick smart. Its just a pullback. Gold pulled back to the 10MA line and that was with hitting a low of 1046. Silver did the same however it made a bigger dip under the 10MA and hit a low of 17.29.

Gold and silver could fall a bit lower to complete the shake out and then head up again to continue making the run to breach 1100. Now, that will not be this week but it will come on the boards in the time to come.

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