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Showing posts with label MACD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MACD. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

The Dollar's Demise and Gold's Resurrection

The Dollar Consolidates while the Markets recover.

US Dollar Daily Chart
US Dollar Daily Chart December 29, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Here is a short follow up on my most recent article 'US Dollar Extends Gains' written on December the 22nd. In that article I summarized the following :

To summarize, short term, yes we are in an UP trend, the chart confirms that. However, RSI has reached overbought. MACD is trending higher but with choppy performance. We are trading farther and farther away from the 30 and 50 MA so a consolidation is getting more and more likely to happen from here.

Mr. market was soon to follow this advice cause December 23 was the start of the consolidation/correction for the dollar after extending its gains from a low of 74.356 on December 2 to a high of 78.449 on December the 22nd.

Moving Averages

10 MA : 77.784
30 MA : 76.349
50 MA : 75.916


As of writing the dollar is trading at 77.388 and is thus already trading below the 10 MA. December 27 saw us crossing below the rising trend line indicating that the steam is out of this kettle for sure!

Looking at the chart and all indicators I reckon looking up from here is wishful for those who are long dollar but not very realistic. Down is where I would look. Short term and long term. Market manipulation excluded then cause I am no match for that.

I say manipulation because if you have a look at the charts from Early December and in particular December the 2nd. The dollar starts to rise and right at that time gold starts to drops. Now, OK, I can understand all the dollar/gold relation and safe haven and such...

...but what I do not get is why even after having such a crisis, after knowing what the dollar is worth now or actually ISN'T worth after the stimulus packages, TARP, FED printing presses, Bank bailouts, Company bailouts,...investors are still buying dollars. So...who are these very first buyers driving up the price and starting this Christmas rally in the dollar?

This is no rally based on valid fundamentals. NO Sirree!

So, let me see if I understand Mr. Market? Ok?

So, December 2, gold breaks down and the dollar rallies or vice versa, the dollar rallies and gold breaks down. So, later we get word from the European mainland that Greece, Spain and Ireland are in deep...um...horse manure? Is that the right noun to use? Up to their arm pits in the proverbial debt-pit.

The Dollar's Demise - A full motion picture DocumentarySo, because the Euro takes a beating, the dollar who for months has had the leading role in our documentary as being the biggest decliner now steps aside and lets the euro play leading role for a while?

Hm? What does not sound right in this motion picture?

This sounds to me like too much artistic freedom on behalf of the director of this documentary. My original remarks remain, unless the dollar succeeds to AND close above 80.00 and STAY above 80.00 the dollar is in my books at least very much in a downward trend.

US Dollar Weekly Chart
US Dollar Weekly Chart December 29, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Weekly then, well this hasn't improved much. I'm still not swayed, not even by the rally we had since the start of December. It is still too insignificant a move to even be treated as such. For me, I would stay far far far away from any long positions in the dollar for the moment.

From the MACD indicator we can see this is still clearly trending below the center line and thus still bearish as indicator. Histogram is also declining.

Dowsing Rod - Image from http://skepticreport.com/sr/?p=564The ADX or Average Directional Indicator is in some sort of limbo on the weekly chart? Don't know if this is a chart bug or if the -DI and the +DI just happen to run parallel for the last couple of days.

Maybe it is forming a wishing rod and hoping then to break it in the right place and have their wish come true? Who knows?
Maybe even a dowsing rod? Searching for water? No,..must be an oil dowsing rod then.

Anyway, until this market takes direction again ADX is probably not a good indicator here on the weekly besides than the fact that we see that there is some sort of sideways action to expect perhaps.

Long term like I said, until we clearly break above 80.00 I consider the trend which was downwards still very much intact. Despite the short rally.

I don't know how many more lessons Mr.Market needs but sooner or later this dollar/gold relation will be gone and out the door for GOOD!



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Tuesday, December 22, 2009

US Dollar Extends Gains

The Dollar Increases on the Euro's Decline.

US Dollar Daily Chart
US Dollar Daily Chart December 23, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis (What's this?)

I'll just do a quick run down on the chart.

I've added the ADX chart. Again on the ADX for those who have not used this indicator before, the Average Directional Index can determine trend strength regardless of the market direction. This non-directional oscillator is based on a range of 1 to 100 (although movements over 60 are rare). If the line is under the 20 mark, the trend is considered to be weak. If the line is above the 40 mark, the trend is considered to be strong. The ADX line is built on the results of two separate technical indicators, the +DI (force of up-moves) and the –DI (force of the down-moves). The default for this study is 14 periods which takes into the consideration the measurements of the +DI and –DI for the last 14 periods.

Dollar FanKnowing that and looking at the chart, you can clearly see that the -DI has had the upper hand for most of the year since March 2009. That changed however early December when the dollar started rallying on the very bad news that was coming out of Europe and in particular from Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Have a read through following article.

The MACD or Moving Average Convergence Divergence is clearly trading upwards and on the daily trading above the center line. It has not been above the center line since March 2009. So daily and thus short term the trend is UP.

RSI or Relative Strength Index has reached the overbought zone.

To summarize, short term, yes we are in an UP trend, the chart confirms that. However, RSI has reached overbought. MACD is trending higher but with choppy performance. We are trading farther and farther away from the 30 and 50 MA so a consolidation is getting more and more likely to happen from here.

US Dollar Weekly Chart
US Dollar Weekly Chart December 23, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis (What's this?)

MACD, well we are still trading below the center line which confirms that weekly we are still not out of the woods yet. The histogram however shows a nice steady increase, one which qualifies as being strong and steady.

Cash rollRSI is hovering around 50 which leaves plenty of room either UP or DOWN.

From earlier on in the article you already read about the ADX indicator. Well, then you know that the blue line does not tell you anything about the direction but merely the strength of the trend. Our blue line thus was increasing from March 2009 until the beginning of December 2009. Now because the dollar was dropping since March our blue line thus indicated that there was a strong DOWN trend.

Now that we see the ADX bending down and going lower we can thus assume that the strength of the down trend has decreased.

The +DI however was trading upwards but has now flattened out so I will have to wait and see if we get any higher beyond from where we are now.

From the chart we also see that we are now trading above the 10 and 30 MA on the weekly. That still leaves us the 50 MA at around 80.56. Until we have clearly taken out the 80.00 there is no difference to the long term trend...which is still DOWN by the way.



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Monday, December 21, 2009

Gold Heading to $1050?

Gold Spot Daily Chart
Gold Spot Daily Chart December 21, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

As of writing gold is already trading at $1088.35. It would seem and judging from the ADX indicator that the force of downward moves is increasing which means we could be looking further downwards.

Our 10 Moving Average is already a long way away at $1118 so daily and weekly we have run out of our closest supports.

As you see I've thus drawn a support at $1050. However, that is the first lowest level I'm looking at. There could be supports in between.

Gold Spot 5-Day Chart
Gold Spot 5-Day Chart December 21, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

From the 5-Day chart we see that the level around $1095 was taken out so another indicator which tells me we should look for a lower support.

So, what support remains there besides the $1050? Well, I've added two Fibonacci charts, one which has as start the latest rally which started late October and one which covers the entire rally from the beginning of September.

So, take your pick I'd say. Normally, when a stock retraces, traders look for a bounce from either the 61.8% or the 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement lines. So, only supports left would be found on the complete Fibonacci chart.

Gold Spot Daily Fibonacci Retracements
Gold Spot Daily Fibonacci Retracements Late October - December
Gold Spot Daily Fibonacci Retracements September - December
Charts courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Just know that daily and thus short term, the downside has again increased so take care with those long positions. Gold is not correcting on the rally from late October but it is correcting on the entire rally which started early September so $1050 would indeed be a great target.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart
Gold Spot Weekly Chart December 21, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

On the weekly, the UP trend is still confirmed by the MACD, the ADX and the strong performance gold has had.

Not much more I can say here. I need to see the market perform after this day before I can second guess any further. One thing to watch is of course the dollar! I have absolutely NO frickin' idea on what basis this thing is rallying but it probably will have some very vague reason??? If anyone knows please enlighten me.

Jim Rogers has the following to say :





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Friday, December 18, 2009

Orko Silver Chart December 18, 2009

Orko Silver Marches Onwards.

Orko Silver Daily Chart
Orko Silver Daily Chart December 18, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Looking at the daily chart we see Orko Silver again since the last two days trading below the 10 MA. With the whole correction in gold and silver I must say that Orko Silver held up pretty well.

The daily chart all in all is, well...not extremely good. Not a total disaster but no total happy camp either. Very short term this could go further down. That is if I go by the negative divergence which I see on the chart. You see, while Orko Silvers price is trading higher from late November to mid December, on the MACD we already see a decline which is a negative signal and thus bearish. We are also trading below the 10 Moving Average. RSI or Relative Strength Index is just about nearing 50.

With this bearish thought in mind I have to say, looking back at the combined action of these last days...doesn't really seem like there is a lot of downside here. So will this negative divergence lead us to a price of $1.14 which coincides with the 30 MA or will we need a correction to the 50 MA at $1.06?

Well, I for one, I didn't put it on the chart but there does also seem to be some support at $1.10 so I'm looking at either the 30 MA at $1.14 or somewhere around $1.10. Anything below that is shopping season, my 2 gold nuggets then.

Looking at the volume leads me only to positive thoughts. Nice, steady volume, plenty of action for all to either sell or buy their shares. MA volume is running for the last month with an average volume starting with 250K and running up to 450K. And those are averages mind you!!

So, to summarize, daily and thus in short term one might expect either a little bit down to levels I indicated above or we will go further sideways like we have done the last couple of days.

Orko Silver Weekly Chart
Orko Silver Weekly Chart December 18, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Weekly is a whole different matter. The little correction and also the slowdown in the up trend is but a mere blip on the weekly chart. On the weekly there is no sign of any bearish signals. That is NONE!

We are still steadily trading above all Moving Averages. Volume is steady and increasing when looked at the MA. (the red arrow)

MACD shows a slight decrease in the histogram but on the weekly still too small to make any difference to the leading trend...which is still UP!

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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Free Email Trading Course

MarketClub - www.ino.comAgain, a lot of new readers with perhaps a lot of questions about the terms I use when I do my charts and what to look out for. Here is the article with the email trading course sign up from MarketClub which highlights most of these points. Have a read and see if it is anything which might add to your trading skills. There is an unsubscribe link when you are done which works by the way. Anyway, here is the article :

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Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Is Gold Ready for its Next Move Up?

Gold Spot Daily Chart
Gold Spot Daily Chart December 15, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Well, after doing my silver chart last night I also did the daily and weekly chart of gold but didn't get around at posting them. I now have a little bit more time so here it goes. The charts are from last night so gold was then still trading at $1124 and has as of this morning increased to around $1130.

So, the idea I had last night and earlier this week is only being confirmed. We are however still not in the clear. For that to happen I'd like gold to trade again above $1150. There could thus still be danger from breaking down.

But, looking at the chart, gold seems to have found support at the 50 MA around $1120. So that means the $1100 is hopefully slowly but steadily disappearing from our sights.

I've also drawn another support level at $1100 because of the action in mid November and the trend line which rests at that level now. So that means there is some additional support for gold here and that could thus explain why the 50 MA held and why gold is trading back up from here. Maybe more investors are seeing this as support?

From the chart you can see that the Average Directional Index has turned down since hitting our high of $1126.37 and the ADX went from over 40 to about 30 now which is still within acceptable boundaries for me. As you also can see, the +DI has now turned down and is now below the -DI. This means that the force of the down move (-DI) was stronger than the force of upward moves.

So, if I only was to look at the ADX indicator then this chart would be deemed negative...however looking at all other indicators makes me wonder if like silver, gold is not finding some support here, new momentum and a perhaps a fresh leg up from here?

MACD looks bearish and is turning down. However when I look at the histogram I see that one declining which also leads me to wonder whether this is looking to head back up?

RSI or Relative Strength Index tells me we are again in buy territory. Sure, we are not below 30 and thus not oversold but around 45 is plenty of room for gold.

Thus, to recap my daily, the same pretty much holds for gold as I indicated in my silver chart. In gold's case, we need to hold the $1100 and for silver we needed to hold the $17.00.

To me there are enough indications which could indicate that we should be looking up from here instead of further down. If gold however decides to move to $1100 and break the trend line then all bets are off and I will be forced to look at lower levels.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart
Gold Spot Weekly Chart December 15, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

On to the weekly then, this chart of course looks better than the dailyy cause the correction we had from the last couple of days just looks like a tiny blip on my weekly chart. Nothing to worry about anyway.

Weekly I'm still looking at my target of $1350.

The correction which started December the 2nd has brought us from $1226.7 down two trend lines and we are holding on the weekly 10 MA.

Weekly thus gold is still trading above all Moving Averages which is of course a good thing. Also, MACD tells me gold is still in an up trend as we are trading above the center line. There is a small correction noticeable in the blue line which is now turning down but that doesn't mean anything right now. Histogram has declined a bit which is a negative but looking back at the correction nothing to worry about and perfectly normal.

ADX on the weekly is clearly still bullish and the force of up moves is still far greater than the force of the down moves.

To summarize...YeOldGoldNugget is still looking at a bullish gold chart and combined with that some pretty exciting months bound to come.

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Will Silver Bounce Back Before Christmas?

Silver Spot Daily Chart
Silver Spot Daily Chart December 15, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

I'm looking at the daily chart here, December the 15th on our 349th day of the year with only 16 more to go before we take silver into 2010.

Now, looking at the daily chart, I must honestly confess, I've seen better. Yes, at December the 11th we've hit a new 3 week low of $16.91. Yes, we have been trading down from our high of $19.45 which was put on the boards at December the 2nd and have traded down from then. Yes, we are trading below our Moving Averages.

However, to me, that only shows that we could be very near a turning point which does not mean I'm indicating a bottom here. Don't get me wrong, what I'm saying is, the market could find a bottom here. Like me, others look at the same charts and find the same lines, resistances, supports, pivot points, 8 year cycles, 12 year cycles,... And to me, unless I fail at drawing computer generated straight lines in a...well...straight line...then the chart is telling me we could indeed be at such a point.

So, when I say, NO, I'm not indicating a bottom, I'm also saying, either we go up from here or we break the trend line. So, that still leaves us both options.

Which do I favor or rather think more likely to happen from here?

Well, personally and chart wise I'd say we very well could go up from here. So my guess is there will surely be many investors who will take the figuratively speaking plunge into a silver long investment. When some do, that will cause a ripple and more will follow. It is the way of the market.

I'm already hearing about March 2010 silver prices going as high as $22.00. So, already the market is looking at way higher prices than what we are now looking at.

So,...is a $22.00 silver price in March 2010 realistic?

Well, the answer to that question would be...PRETTY MUCH YEA!

Like gold, silver CAN, HAS and WILL again in the near future perform like it seems there is nothing holding it back. Just take a look at the beginning of September when gold started moving away from the $1000 level, silver was trading at September the 1st with a low of $14.62 moving all the way up to September the 17th to finish off with a high of $17.65. At that very same time gold had only made a high of $1024.

Seasons Greetings Bar Silver - 2009 Copyright Northwest Territorial MintNow, I'm sure not all of my readers are math geniuses but I think you'd have to agree that getting from $14.62 to $17.65 is more of an increase than getting from $1000 to $1024? I think silver made about a 18% gain while gold had to settle for a mere 3% gain.

So, yes, I like the shiny gold, I admit! And yes, it is more precious but for my normal investments, like shares and the junior market I prefer the leverage I get in silver over gold.

It's just personal preference I suppose.

So, to continue with the chart and my motivation for my comments, well, you see, first and foremost if we break $17.00 from here...and with the emphasis on here...then I really don't know where this has to go, daily then. Only to say that from here on down and below $17.00 would be Christmas Silver Shopping Season.

MACD looks to be heading back up and the histogram already is showing signs of starting to decline back to zero and hopefully above the center line again. Now, it is too early to tell but it is on the chart so, the downward momentum has definitely decreased. Whether this holds I honestly don't know but the latest about the rising wholesale prices and the inflation fears will put an additional level of support under gold and silver?

To end my daily chart, plain and simple, there is more support to be found around these prices than there is resistance. Like electricity, silver will go the way of least resistance...that in my opinion is UPWARDS!

Silver Spot Weekly Chart
Silver Spot Weekly Chart December 15, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

On to the weekly then, well for one, there is the $16.00 support level which is a very nice thing to have. Since, earlier it was a resistance, now that we are steadily trading above that level it will act as support like it has in the past.

Why bring up the $16.00? Just to show that if silver does manage to break the trend line then $16.00 is the number I'm looking at to look for a bounce back up. Nothing wrong with being prepared either way,...is there?

For now, I will remain looking up and not down! We are still trading upwards and still in a clearly definable up trend. We are also still trading in our trend channel all be it that we are now at the bottom of our lower trend line.

Most important thing is, we are holding as you've seen daily and weekly.

So, not much more I can say here. We need to look for confirmation of this thing wanting to go higher from here. Silver could trade sideways for a bit longer before heading back up. Anything above $17.00 is still bullish, getting to far below $17.00 would be bearish and should put investors in alert mode.

So, to answer the question, will silver bounce back before Christmas? Well, it is already sorta doing that. Only thing left to do from here is get back to our earlier high of $19.45 and leave the under $19.00 zone behind us and in thus doing so creating a bottom and support at $19.00.

Lets take this one step at a time though, that means, daily, lets get back above $18.14 first and then look again.

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Saturday, December 12, 2009

Will Gold Find Support at $1100?

Gold Spot Daily Chart
Gold Spot Daily Chart December 11, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

After hitting a high of $1226.37 on December the 2th, gold is now hovering around $1115 which is very near the area of where we could find some additional support. Early November from the 10th to the 14th we also held around these prices indicating possible support. Also if you quickly look on the weekly chart you will see that the 10 MA which is around that same level $1100 so varying indicators which could indicate that the $1100 could provide more support than earlier levels.

Looking at the Relative Strength Index shows me gold is getting near oversold. On the chart you will see that on the daily chart gold does not get that far below 30 before turning back up.

Credit Suisse 1 Gram Gold Bar - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial MintThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows a serious correction! Very wide gap indeed. Lets see if the MACD-histogram declines from here. Sharp increases in the MACD-Histogram indicate that MACD is rising faster than the 9-day Exponential Moving Average and bullish momentum is strengthening. Sharp declines in the MACD-Histogram indicate that MACD is falling faster than its 9-day EMA and bearish momentum is increasing.

What we thus need to see is the MACD-Histogram cubes slowly decreasing in size and that blue line slowly bending over and crossing above the red line right on the center line. Oh, I'm day-dreaming again I see. Well, that's what I would like to see happen anyway.

Lets see what the $1100 will provide as support before we continue looking downwards, OK?

Gold Spot Fibonacci Retracement
Gold Spot Daily Chart Fibonacci December 11, 2009

Included is the daily chart with the Fibonacci Retracements. We are now sorta hovering around the 38.2 and 50% retracement. The 50.0% stands at around $1125 and is normally the level which traders look at and mostly expect a bounce from. If that breaks there is however still the 38.2% which stands at around that same $1100 level.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart
Gold Spot Weekly Chart December 11, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

On to the weekly then, well, I'm still looking at an extremely bullish chart, though one that is now undergoing a correction. How deep that correction will be all depends on the buyers and the sellers. I can scream and shout to all my hearts intent how I feel gold has consolidated enough and how we are again at a level where we could see additional buyers popping up and such and such....but we will have to let the market decide.

Like you already could read earlier, there is the support from the 10 MA at $1100, there also is the center trend line providing possible additional support. The 30 MA which I'm hoping and guessing we won't hit stands at $1000.

RSI has now left the overbought zone and gold is at least technically speaking, buy-able again.

MACD then, difficult to tell. Well, there is the blue line which is clearly turning down with a declining MACD-Histogram and with that a narrowing gap. Normally those are bearish but it is just too early to tell what will happen from here.

I think I just might keep on the sidelines for a little while longer. I have a feeling the market's desire is for this to hit $1100 level before deciding to hopefully bottom out here and continue our leg up.
Just keep a close eye on the dollar, looking back to Friday's action it would seem there are some very swift and speedy traders out there. Dollar up, gold down. Wham! Like clockwork, right at the very same moment.

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