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Showing posts with label Stochastics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stochastics. Show all posts

Friday, November 27, 2009

Silver Could Be on One Heck of a Ride!

Silver Spot Daily Chart
Silver Spot Daily Chart November 27, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Couple of highlights, well,...a lot of highlights on this chart actually. The most important ones on this chart however would be the divergences. Take a look at the chart and in particular last year August 2008. You'll see the red line I've placed there following the lower lows silver is making. This line is thus sloping downward.

Tilt your eyes a bit down and look at the other red line below the MACD. That line is making higher lows. So, there is a divergence because the MACD is advancing upwards before the stock is doing so. The stock at that moment is still trading downwards. Taking a clearer look at the MACD you'll see it was making higher lows so there was a positive divergence emerging.

100 Ounce Silver Bars Johnson Matthey and Englehard - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial MintAs the naming implies, positive,...meaning a bullish signal. A divergence is also a clearer and more reliable signal then a simple MACD crossover. Even then, there are also different levels and strengths of signals, for instance, a crossover on the center line is a stronger signal than a crossover in the lower or upper zone while a divergence beats any crossover as to signals.

Now, move your eyes to the right to last September, notice the red line making higher highs? Now look down and take a look at the MACD. That one is making lower highs. So we have a divergence again. This time the MACD is down trending while the stock is still making higher highs. This is what is called a negative divergence and thus a bearish signal.

October 19th is when I would have gotten out when I would have been long. Taking some profits off the table and waiting for confirmation of the signal. This case, the divergence did in fact turn out to be a bearish signal as the stock made a clear break downwards from October the 25th.

So, look for those to aid, not to guide!

I've also drawn a resistance line across the chart at 18.00 which coincides with earlier points of support and resistance. Now, it is a resistance but one which soon will be broken and with great ease.

For now, I'm looking at a retest of either the 10 Moving Average or the bottom of the trend line which would be anywhere around the 17.00 level.

Do not however expect too much downward pressure on silver or gold as that will not happen. Up is still the trend. Short term thus maybe a little bit down but when we've taken our little breather I expect us to be trading back to where we left of sooner rather than later.

Silver Spot Weekly Chart
Silver Spot Weekly Chart November 27, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis (What's this?)

Weekly is as usual where the magic happens! Silver's chart is no different here cause looking at this one is just like reliving October the 5th all over again. We are already trading above 18.00 and we are looking for a definite break above 18.00 on the weekly chart. Could silver finally be on the brink of making some of the same steady gains gold has made comparatively?

With that I mean, gold has since last year October 2008 not only reached its all time high, it has completely smashed it to smithereens! Silver has yet to hit that all time high but could be on the verge of doing the same. Don't know what will happen but the chart is telling me silver has some catching up to do and chart wise things are really lining up for a possible major increase or case of playing catch up.

Bullion Johnson Matthey 100 Ounce Silver Bar - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial MintYou can also see the upper trend line going up from October 2008 and after breaking that trend line in June 2009 and going further down we've made our new lower trend line which has held from July on.

What I'm looking at is adding an even higher trend line to the chart which should tell you I'm already looking at a silver price of 21.00. When silver breaks the upper trend line and thus breaks the 19.00 then getting to 21.00 is like talking a walk in the park.

MACD is trending up but the gap is not getting wider. Not yet anyway...that will come...only a matter of time. Just need to drop a little before taking out 19.00 and heading for higher highs.

Looking at both charts I'm extremely bullish on not only most silver juniors but as an investor in Orko Silver, of course also very bullish on the markets reaction towards Orko Silver when the spot price of silver is looking to break 19.00 and more to come in the weeks ahead.

Now, I have no crystal ball but I do try to recognize turning points and have on occasion spotted them in the past so maybe just need to go with the flow.

Last thing, don't get scared riding gold or silver's wave. To those who've followed today's action in gold will know that any down attempts are quickly brought back up again. Like clockwork. Too much basis and fundamentals for gold not to go higher. My 2 gold-nuggets then.



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Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Gold Continues its Upward Move to 1350

Gold Spot Daily Chart
Gold Spot Daily Chart November 18, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

OK. Here it goes :

Beginning October 2009 I did my buy gold now article. Gold was then still trading around 1010. Next days trade gold made a high of 1043....and continued going higher.

At the end of October 2009 I wrote G for gold and back with a vengeance article. Gold was at that time trading around 1040 and had just consolidated back to the second trendline. Next days trade gold made a high of 1066 and continued going higher.

Beginning of November 2009 I wrote my gold breaking out of upper trend channel article. Gold was at that time trading around 1096. Next days trade we hit a high of 1110 and continued going higher.

Gold Bar with Coins - BullionVault.comNow, I'm not trying to say that you can draw a trend line along YeOldGoldNugget but from time to time one has to contemplate and look back upon one's own writing. Is YeOldGoldNugget full of crap, just plain lucky,...or can YeOldGoldNugget follow Gold Nuggets?

Well, that is not for me to decide, I'd probably just go with the full of crap.

So,...what does YeOldGoldNugget think now? Hm? I'm probably way too bullish for my own good but I see 1200 being doable...short term. However, I have to say my short term judgment is a bit clouded by me having looked at the weekly chart. The daily I'd say,...bit of danger here. Well, to me, and to the trend line I've drawn, we are again reaching a crossing point. Will we break that trend line and continue heading further up or will gold do a short term pullback?

Hard to say. Fundamentally I'd say we go straight to 1200 and more, however the daily chart tells me gold is due for a small pull back. If you look at the daily chart you'll notice that gold does not stay for very long in the oversold zone, RSI wise then. So based on that, I'd say we could get a pullback in the very near term.

How far a pullback you say? Well, when we drop to trend line 2 then I'm looking at somewhere around 1084. This also coincides with the 30 Moving Average which together with the trend line can or will act as support.

Don't forget! When we are in a strong uptrend its always a rather dumb idea to be betting against the flow. Same as jumping in front of a moving Silver Train like Orko Silver Corp, thinking it will stop just because you expect it to or so desire it to. That Silver Train, like gold, has left the station. So, in gold's case you're thinking about going short gold then better make sure it's a quick trade cause else you're going to loose more than just your shirt.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart
Gold Spot Weekly Chart November 18, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

On to the weekly for direction and confirmation of our trend. Up or down? Stupid question I suppose...well...for the intellectually challenged maybe a solid question?

Time to get the neon signs back from under the dust again. One shows how YeOldGoldNugget feels about the weekly chart and the other gives a visual indication of the trend.
YeOldGoldNugget is VERY VERY VERY HAPPY with the Weekly ChartUp
What more does one need to know?

OK then, MACD looks good and is making higher and higher high's which is extremely bullish. Stochastics has been trading for a little over 2 months in oversold zone. As you can see from the chart, the last big rally got gold trading in oversold area for as much as 7 months! YOINKS!

RSI is not the best of indicators to use when looking at the weekly chart of gold, with that I mean, don't go opening a weekly chart, seeing gold in oversold at RSI and deciding to dump your shares or something like that :-)

Better is it to watch stochastics...when this goes to far towards 60 then I'd start contemplating about selling or taking profits. That is, if you're riding the waves like I am.

Surf's up!


So to round up :

Entering now, probably not THE best of idea's, better wait to see if gold will break this trend line. If in the next days you see gold moving up to 1150, 1155, 1160,...then its a fair bet that 1200 will be knocked down in the very same breath. Remember also that gold could be finishing the Head and Shoulders pattern which has a target of 1350

If you from now see gold opening lower, closing lower, lot of red candles, bit of sideways trading without making new higher grounds than the air is out of the balloon and we need a refill. You'll know and recognize it when it happens. This thus could indicate gold wanting to trade lower and possibly heading back to trend line 2.

Just wait and let the market come to you. Clearly the trend is up, but short term there could be danger ahead. Last thing, the dollar seems to be caving in under the enormous buying which has been going on in the gold market. A high gold price does not bode well for the dollar and looking at the weekly chart of gold and seeing where this could go...not a far stretch of the imagination to think what will happen with the dollar when gold is trading at 1350.



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Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Orko Silver Chart September 15, 2009

Daily Chart
Orko Silver Chart September 15, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Today's session brought an end to the 9 days consecutive up streak for the price of Orko Silver Corp.
It was a close call however since only a few minutes before closing we still had a climb to 0.89 but it didn't hold and we closed at 0.87 (-1.14%).

Chart-wise I'm still looking at a bullish stock movement. No change there.

There is still decent volume. MACD indicator tells me the trend is still the same, going up. RSI and slow stochastic are turning down.
What are stochastics? Stochastics like RSI tries to help in showing when a stock is oversold or overbought. Again, don't use this indicator on its own cause it needs the backup of other indicators to get the full picture.
The combination of slow stochastics and a divergence can however lead to profitable trades.
Readings below the 20 line are considered oversold, above 80 overbought.

Also remember, if I say the trend is up, that does not mean that a stock can't close in the red. A stock can close in the red for more days than one and still be in an uptrend. If that sounds confusing to first-time investors don't worry, it'll start to make sense.
This comment however will sound funny to those that do understand such trivial of issues but not all of us are in similar stages of experience.

And my comments are not to be taken merely at face value, if you are a trader eager to learn I expect of you to open Bing or Google or Yahoo or whatever and look up MACD, RSI, Stochastics, Volume, Bollinger Bands,...and try and see what variations there are, what combination's, look into the divergence part, what combination of technical points are good trade signals, good entries, good exits,...

So, continuing with the chart, hard to tell now what the stock will do tomorrow. A close in the red or in the green?

When I don't know I throw in a bit more indicators.

Daily Chart with Bollinger Bands
Orko Silver Chart with Bollinger Bands September 15, 2009
Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Its starting to look like the stock is starting to move away from the upper band and starting to move to the center/middle line. However, its too early days to tell whether we have started the consolidation, just something to keep an eye on.

Worst case scenario, if we get a consolidation we will return to 0.80 before going up again. More likely and judging from the still undervalued price of Orko I'd see a downside of at lowest 0.85. Another day in the red wouldn't be all that bad for the stock.

We'll see what tomorrow brings.

I'm still long and holding! Hope you are too. Good fortune.



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