YeOldGoldNugget's Blog Spot: Trend Analysis

Showing posts with label Trend Analysis. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Is Gold Ready for its Next Move Up?

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Well, after doing my silver chart last night I also did the daily and weekly chart of gold but didn't get around at posting them. I now have a little bit more time so here it goes. The charts are from last night so gold was then still trading at $1124 and has as of this morning increased to around $1130.

So, the idea I had last night and earlier this week is only being confirmed. We are however still not in the clear. For that to happen I'd like gold to trade again above $1150. There could thus still be danger from breaking down.

But, looking at the chart, gold seems to have found support at the 50 MA around $1120. So that means the $1100 is hopefully slowly but steadily disappearing from our sights.

I've also drawn another support level at $1100 because of the action in mid November and the trend line which rests at that level now. So that means there is some additional support for gold here and that could thus explain why the 50 MA held and why gold is trading back up from here. Maybe more investors are seeing this as support?

From the chart you can see that the Average Directional Index has turned down since hitting our high of $1126.37 and the ADX went from over 40 to about 30 now which is still within acceptable boundaries for me. As you also can see, the +DI has now turned down and is now below the -DI. This means that the force of the down move (-DI) was stronger than the force of upward moves.

So, if I only was to look at the ADX indicator then this chart would be deemed negative...however looking at all other indicators makes me wonder if like silver, gold is not finding some support here, new momentum and a perhaps a fresh leg up from here?

MACD looks bearish and is turning down. However when I look at the histogram I see that one declining which also leads me to wonder whether this is looking to head back up?

RSI or Relative Strength Index tells me we are again in buy territory. Sure, we are not below 30 and thus not oversold but around 45 is plenty of room for gold.

Thus, to recap my daily, the same pretty much holds for gold as I indicated in my silver chart. In gold's case, we need to hold the $1100 and for silver we needed to hold the $17.00.

To me there are enough indications which could indicate that we should be looking up from here instead of further down. If gold however decides to move to $1100 and break the trend line then all bets are off and I will be forced to look at lower levels.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart

Gold Spot Weekly Chart December 15, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

On to the weekly then, this chart of course looks better than the dailyy cause the correction we had from the last couple of days just looks like a tiny blip on my weekly chart. Nothing to worry about anyway.

Weekly I'm still looking at my target of $1350.

The correction which started December the 2nd has brought us from $1226.7 down two trend lines and we are holding on the weekly 10 MA.

Weekly thus gold is still trading above all Moving Averages which is of course a good thing. Also, MACD tells me gold is still in an up trend as we are trading above the center line. There is a small correction noticeable in the blue line which is now turning down but that doesn't mean anything right now. Histogram has declined a bit which is a negative but looking back at the correction nothing to worry about and perfectly normal.

ADX on the weekly is clearly still bullish and the force of up moves is still far greater than the force of the down moves.

To summarize...YeOldGoldNugget is still looking at a bullish gold chart and combined with that some pretty exciting months bound to come.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Will Silver Bounce Back Before Christmas?

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Silver Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

I'm looking at the daily chart here, December the 15th on our 349th day of the year with only 16 more to go before we take silver into 2010.

Now, looking at the daily chart, I must honestly confess, I've seen better. Yes, at December the 11th we've hit a new 3 week low of $16.91. Yes, we have been trading down from our high of $19.45 which was put on the boards at December the 2nd and have traded down from then. Yes, we are trading below our Moving Averages.

However, to me, that only shows that we could be very near a turning point which does not mean I'm indicating a bottom here. Don't get me wrong, what I'm saying is, the market could find a bottom here. Like me, others look at the same charts and find the same lines, resistances, supports, pivot points, 8 year cycles, 12 year cycles,... And to me, unless I fail at drawing computer generated straight lines in a...well...straight line...then the chart is telling me we could indeed be at such a point.

So, when I say, NO, I'm not indicating a bottom, I'm also saying, either we go up from here or we break the trend line. So, that still leaves us both options.

Which do I favor or rather think more likely to happen from here?

Well, personally and chart wise I'd say we very well could go up from here. So my guess is there will surely be many investors who will take the figuratively speaking plunge into a silver long investment. When some do, that will cause a ripple and more will follow. It is the way of the market.

I'm already hearing about March 2010 silver prices going as high as $22.00. So, already the market is looking at way higher prices than what we are now looking at.

So,...is a $22.00 silver price in March 2010 realistic?

Well, the answer to that question would be...PRETTY MUCH YEA!

Like gold, silver CAN, HAS and WILL again in the near future perform like it seems there is nothing holding it back. Just take a look at the beginning of September when gold started moving away from the $1000 level, silver was trading at September the 1st with a low of $14.62 moving all the way up to September the 17th to finish off with a high of $17.65. At that very same time gold had only made a high of $1024.

Seasons Greetings Bar Silver - 2009 Copyright Northwest Territorial Mint

Now, I'm sure not all of my readers are math geniuses but I think you'd have to agree that getting from $14.62 to $17.65 is more of an increase than getting from $1000 to $1024? I think silver made about a 18% gain while gold had to settle for a mere 3% gain.

So, yes, I like the shiny gold, I admit! And yes, it is more precious but for my normal investments, like shares and the junior market I prefer the leverage I get in silver over gold.

It's just personal preference I suppose.

So, to continue with the chart and my motivation for my comments, well, you see, first and foremost if we break $17.00 from here...and with the emphasis on here...then I really don't know where this has to go, daily then. Only to say that from here on down and below $17.00 would be Christmas Silver Shopping Season.

MACD looks to be heading back up and the histogram already is showing signs of starting to decline back to zero and hopefully above the center line again. Now, it is too early to tell but it is on the chart so, the downward momentum has definitely decreased. Whether this holds I honestly don't know but the latest about the rising wholesale prices and the inflation fears will put an additional level of support under gold and silver?

To end my daily chart, plain and simple, there is more support to be found around these prices than there is resistance. Like electricity, silver will go the way of least resistance...that in my opinion is UPWARDS!

Silver Spot Weekly Chart

Silver Spot Weekly Chart December 15, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

On to the weekly then, well for one, there is the $16.00 support level which is a very nice thing to have. Since, earlier it was a resistance, now that we are steadily trading above that level it will act as support like it has in the past.

Why bring up the $16.00? Just to show that if silver does manage to break the trend line then $16.00 is the number I'm looking at to look for a bounce back up. Nothing wrong with being prepared either way,...is there?

For now, I will remain looking up and not down! We are still trading upwards and still in a clearly definable up trend. We are also still trading in our trend channel all be it that we are now at the bottom of our lower trend line.

Most important thing is, we are holding as you've seen daily and weekly.

So, not much more I can say here. We need to look for confirmation of this thing wanting to go higher from here. Silver could trade sideways for a bit longer before heading back up. Anything above $17.00 is still bullish, getting to far below $17.00 would be bearish and should put investors in alert mode.

So, to answer the question, will silver bounce back before Christmas? Well, it is already sorta doing that. Only thing left to do from here is get back to our earlier high of $19.45 and leave the under $19.00 zone behind us and in thus doing so creating a bottom and support at $19.00.

Lets take this one step at a time though, that means, daily, lets get back above $18.14 first and then look again.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Saturday, December 12, 2009

Will Gold Find Support at $1100?

By 79Atoms on Saturday, December 12, 2009

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

After hitting a high of $1226.37 on December the 2th, gold is now hovering around $1115 which is very near the area of where we could find some additional support. Early November from the 10th to the 14th we also held around these prices indicating possible support. Also if you quickly look on the weekly chart you will see that the 10 MA which is around that same level $1100 so varying indicators which could indicate that the $1100 could provide more support than earlier levels.

Looking at the Relative Strength Index shows me gold is getting near oversold. On the chart you will see that on the daily chart gold does not get that far below 30 before turning back up.

Credit Suisse 1 Gram Gold Bar - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial Mint

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence shows a serious correction! Very wide gap indeed. Lets see if the MACD-histogram declines from here. Sharp increases in the MACD-Histogram indicate that MACD is rising faster than the 9-day Exponential Moving Average and bullish momentum is strengthening. Sharp declines in the MACD-Histogram indicate that MACD is falling faster than its 9-day EMA and bearish momentum is increasing.

What we thus need to see is the MACD-Histogram cubes slowly decreasing in size and that blue line slowly bending over and crossing above the red line right on the center line. Oh, I'm day-dreaming again I see. Well, that's what I would like to see happen anyway.

Lets see what the $1100 will provide as support before we continue looking downwards, OK?

Gold Spot Fibonacci Retracement

Gold Spot Daily Chart Fibonacci December 11, 2009

Included is the daily chart with the Fibonacci Retracements. We are now sorta hovering around the 38.2 and 50% retracement. The 50.0% stands at around $1125 and is normally the level which traders look at and mostly expect a bounce from. If that breaks there is however still the 38.2% which stands at around that same $1100 level.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart

Gold Spot Weekly Chart December 11, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

On to the weekly then, well, I'm still looking at an extremely bullish chart, though one that is now undergoing a correction. How deep that correction will be all depends on the buyers and the sellers. I can scream and shout to all my hearts intent how I feel gold has consolidated enough and how we are again at a level where we could see additional buyers popping up and such and such....but we will have to let the market decide.

Like you already could read earlier, there is the support from the 10 MA at $1100, there also is the center trend line providing possible additional support. The 30 MA which I'm hoping and guessing we won't hit stands at $1000.

RSI has now left the overbought zone and gold is at least technically speaking, buy-able again.

MACD then, difficult to tell. Well, there is the blue line which is clearly turning down with a declining MACD-Histogram and with that a narrowing gap. Normally those are bearish but it is just too early to tell what will happen from here.

I think I just might keep on the sidelines for a little while longer. I have a feeling the market's desire is for this to hit $1100 level before deciding to hopefully bottom out here and continue our leg up.
Just keep a close eye on the dollar, looking back to Friday's action it would seem there are some very swift and speedy traders out there. Dollar up, gold down. Wham! Like clockwork, right at the very same moment.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Friday, December 4, 2009

The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

By 79Atoms on Friday, December 04, 2009

Let me start off this article by introducing to you, Clint Eastwood as Blondie. The Good, a.k.a. the Man with No Name, a subdued, cocksure bounty hunter who competes with Tuco (The Ugly) and Angel Eyes (The Bad) to find the buried gold.

Blondie and Tuco have an ambivalent partnership. Tuco knows the name of the cemetery where the gold is hidden, but Blondie knows the name of the grave where it is buried, forcing them to work together to find the treasure. In spite of this greedy quest, Blondie's pity for the dying soldiers in the chaotic carnage of the War is evident. "I've never seen so many men wasted so badly," he laments.

Coincidentally in my story to drive the point home, Blondie aka The Good is represented by the HUI Index and the Gold Spot charts while Tuco aka The Ugly is represented by the Dollar. Blondie and Gold...that can't be a coincidence. Gold vs The Dollar. Anyway, beneath each chart I will try to explain why I believe the chart belongs in either The Good, The Bad 'or' The Ugly.

The Good

HUI Index Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - HUI Index Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Why classified under The Good? Just take a look at the HUI Index chart, take a look at the steady rise never failing to break from beyond its original trend channel from where it started early on in January 2009. Not only that, this week we came $2 dollars short of reaching the all time high. I'd say that qualifies as strong performance. The failing to break the all time high is like I said, just that, stocks don't have to break all time highs in one straight move. Maybe one, two or three attempts.

At least that index managed to get back to earlier highs.

Now on to gold...do the terms 'historic gains' mean anything? I don't really mind the little bumps or a possible correction, what must be done must be done. Like with the HUI, this will just be a correction, not the start of golds downward march to 984.

The Bad

S&P Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - S&P Index Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Nasdaq Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Nasdaq Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Dow Jones Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Dow Jones Index Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

So, The Bad! What do these charts have in common? They all to me at least, show choppy performance, failing to reach earlier highs is one. Second is, they are all showing signs of a market in disarray. A market in doubt. Will it go higher or will it go down? A market that is tiptoeing along...every leaf, twig or little pebble will set off the noise and release the evil bloodhounds...leaving everybody running for the exits...so to speak.

Methinks, the debt package and stimulus money is running out...nothing like an inflated job report to try to stave off any possible drop. However, there is more needed than an inflated job report to continue this path.

I'm not convinced. I'd be careful, that's all. The Dow Jones even has a rising wedge in there which if confirmed does not bode well.

The Ugly

US Dollar Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

On to the almighty Dollar, the greenback, the world-currency, the safe-haven,...at least, that is what it once was known as.

Almighty? NOT compared to what I can see from other currencies!
Greenback? Last time I checked they were still green.
World-currency? NOT for long!
Safe-Haven? NOT what I can see from gold's chart.

Summary

Now, I'm not per definition saying the markets are going down but I'm just stating and showing you what is on the charts. If they break those resistances then fine, none the wiser and we move on. However, if there does seem to be a reversal going on, then people and investors will, like they did before, take the money off the table. Will that money then go to the dollar or the treasuries...or will that money flow into gold, silver and the commodities?

We all know who came out on top in the movie,...don't we?

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Gold's Relentless March Continues!

By 79Atoms on Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Since I did my last chart I've been doing some minor adjustments to my trend lines. Only minor ones as you'll see. Just compare the two daily charts for a moment.

Only difference is, the trend lines now align perfectly and every other one is 50 points away from the next one. I don't know whether this is a coincidence to have them lining up so perfectly but there are too many points to highlight on the chart which sorta rules out coincidence...at least to me.

For instance...the bottom trend line started November/ December 2008 at around 750 (low to be exactly 756,20 at December 07, 2008). Were we to follow that trend line until now we would indeed with the combined normal trading action have hit the 1000 mark around September / October 2009.
Also from the chart you will see the upper trend line being hit in February 2008, on February the 20th to be precise. If I use that high and draw a new trend line parallel with my other trend line and also at exactly 50 points from the lower one (the 4th), take a look where gold took a breather from a couple days ago!

On November the 24th I posted an alert on my stock-house blog to let my readers know that a possible dip was coming. You can now see why!

Sure, it could break the upper trend line straight away but always better to take some profits off the table. That way you have some funds available to buy stocks on the low if it does turn down.

On with the chart, you'll see that from the beginning of November gold has broken through several trend lines, three to be precise. Now, if you know that each channel represents 50 points than that gives you 3 x 50 which equals 150 points increase already since the beginning of November when we were still trading at 1050.

So, starting from 1050 in early November, 3 channels up gives us 1200. Now from the chart you'll clearly see that it broke short of the 1200 and after hitting 1195 started trading down. It was a quick pullback which coincided with the Dubai debt issue seemed like a very violent correction as it went down and hit a low of 1136, a little bit under the lower trend line. Gold was quickly brought back up again and together with the 10 MA as support was quickly making its way to the upper most trend line again and has since yesterday clearly broken it.

Trading now around $1215, so definitely above the upper trend line which sorta leaves me wondering where this is going to end? In my last article I indicated getting to 1200 would be no problem. From the looks of things I'd say no problem indeed!

So now what?

Well, from the chart you'll see already on the daily we are a whopping $232 away from the Moving Average 200 ;-)
Don't know if this is a record or not since my charts only go back for 10 years but from what I can see on the daily in those 10 years....IT IS!!!

Does that mean I'm now looking downwards for gold? HECK NO!

No time to be betting against gold right now, no matter what RSI or MA tells you. At least, that's what I think. If mean, if you see gold moving up channel after channel, gaining 50 points in a couple of days and another 100 points over the course of less than a month with no signs of even looking back to the carnage it is wreaking havoc upon amongst those who are short.

Golden HAVOC!

So, does the daily chart please YeOldGoldNugget? A WHOLEHEARTEDLY YES! It is the relentless action of gold, the maybe historic gains gold is making now. Not simple factors to ignore, my 2 gold nuggets.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart

Gold Spot Weekly Chart December 02, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Weekly is where gold does its magic! Is it magical? Well, can't you see the magic going on in the weekly chart? I sure can!

Again, mind you, I can only look back 10 years in market club and from what I can see gold has never seen such strong performance like it has these last two months. Absolutely amazing to say the least!

From the chart you can see we are still or could still be completing our head and shoulders pattern which we broke out off from the beginning of October 2009, That alone gives us a long term price indication of about 1300 to 1350.

Looking at the MACD,...if ever someone needed to write a book and describe one of the most bullish of MACD's then surely gold's MACD or something similar would be shown. Blue line above red line, wide gap ever increasing, steady increase is also shown in the gray divergence cubes which increase steadily over time. That is just what one needs to see and will always see when a stock or index is undergoing a strong uptrend.

I've added another indicator, the Average Directional Index, this can determine trend strength regardless of the market direction. This non-directional oscillator is based on a range of 1 to 100 (although movements over 60 are rare). If the line is under the 20 mark, the trend is considered to be weak. If the line is above the 40 mark, the trend is considered to be strong. The ADX line is built on the results of two separate technical indicators, the +DI (force of up-moves) and the –DI (force of the down-moves). The default for this study is 14 periods which takes into the consideration the measurements of the +DI and –DI for the last 14 periods.

Knowing that and looking at gold's ADX chart you can clearly see the +DI above the ADX which indicates a trend upwards. ADX is also looking to go higher.

If gold keeps up its relentless action which it, looking at the weekly chart, is bound to do then by February 2010 we might already be looking at 1300 or more.

Stranger things have happened.

I think we have a clear winner here! Gold...and silver...bound to astonish most and catch many off-guard and with their pants down.

To finish my article I'll give a couple supports daily and weekly.

On the daily we have support from either the 10 MA at 1184, the 30 MA at 1129. I'm disregarding the 200 MA (984) for obvious reasons. Of course, there are also the trend lines to look for to offer support, 1200, 1150, 1100,...

On the weekly we have support (and also from the trend lines) from either the 10 MA at 1096, the 30 MA at 1002. I'm disregarding the 200 MA (788) for obvious reasons.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Friday, November 27, 2009

Silver Could Be on One Heck of a Ride!

By 79Atoms on Friday, November 27, 2009

Silver Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Couple of highlights, well,...a lot of highlights on this chart actually. The most important ones on this chart however would be the divergences. Take a look at the chart and in particular last year August 2008. You'll see the red line I've placed there following the lower lows silver is making. This line is thus sloping downward.

Tilt your eyes a bit down and look at the other red line below the MACD. That line is making higher lows. So, there is a divergence because the MACD is advancing upwards before the stock is doing so. The stock at that moment is still trading downwards. Taking a clearer look at the MACD you'll see it was making higher lows so there was a positive divergence emerging.

100 Ounce Silver Bars Johnson Matthey and Englehard - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial Mint

As the naming implies, positive,...meaning a bullish signal. A divergence is also a clearer and more reliable signal then a simple MACD crossover. Even then, there are also different levels and strengths of signals, for instance, a crossover on the center line is a stronger signal than a crossover in the lower or upper zone while a divergence beats any crossover as to signals.

Now, move your eyes to the right to last September, notice the red line making higher highs? Now look down and take a look at the MACD. That one is making lower highs. So we have a divergence again. This time the MACD is down trending while the stock is still making higher highs. This is what is called a negative divergence and thus a bearish signal.

October 19th is when I would have gotten out when I would have been long. Taking some profits off the table and waiting for confirmation of the signal. This case, the divergence did in fact turn out to be a bearish signal as the stock made a clear break downwards from October the 25th.

So, look for those to aid, not to guide!

I've also drawn a resistance line across the chart at 18.00 which coincides with earlier points of support and resistance. Now, it is a resistance but one which soon will be broken and with great ease.

For now, I'm looking at a retest of either the 10 Moving Average or the bottom of the trend line which would be anywhere around the 17.00 level.

Do not however expect too much downward pressure on silver or gold as that will not happen. Up is still the trend. Short term thus maybe a little bit down but when we've taken our little breather I expect us to be trading back to where we left of sooner rather than later.

Silver Spot Weekly Chart

Silver Spot Weekly Chart November 27, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Weekly is as usual where the magic happens! Silver's chart is no different here cause looking at this one is just like reliving October the 5th all over again. We are already trading above 18.00 and we are looking for a definite break above 18.00 on the weekly chart. Could silver finally be on the brink of making some of the same steady gains gold has made comparatively?

With that I mean, gold has since last year October 2008 not only reached its all time high, it has completely smashed it to smithereens! Silver has yet to hit that all time high but could be on the verge of doing the same. Don't know what will happen but the chart is telling me silver has some catching up to do and chart wise things are really lining up for a possible major increase or case of playing catch up.

Bullion Johnson Matthey 100 Ounce Silver Bar - Copyright © 2009 Northwest Territorial Mint

You can also see the upper trend line going up from October 2008 and after breaking that trend line in June 2009 and going further down we've made our new lower trend line which has held from July on.

What I'm looking at is adding an even higher trend line to the chart which should tell you I'm already looking at a silver price of 21.00. When silver breaks the upper trend line and thus breaks the 19.00 then getting to 21.00 is like talking a walk in the park.

MACD is trending up but the gap is not getting wider. Not yet anyway...that will come...only a matter of time. Just need to drop a little before taking out 19.00 and heading for higher highs.

Looking at both charts I'm extremely bullish on not only most silver juniors but as an investor in Orko Silver, of course also very bullish on the markets reaction towards Orko Silver when the spot price of silver is looking to break 19.00 and more to come in the weeks ahead.

Now, I have no crystal ball but I do try to recognize turning points and have on occasion spotted them in the past so maybe just need to go with the flow.

Last thing, don't get scared riding gold or silver's wave. To those who've followed today's action in gold will know that any down attempts are quickly brought back up again. Like clockwork. Too much basis and fundamentals for gold not to go higher. My 2 gold-nuggets then.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest