YeOldGoldNugget's Blog Spot: Relative strength index

Showing posts with label Relative strength index. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

US Dollar Extends Gains

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, December 22, 2009

The Dollar Increases on the Euro's Decline.

US Dollar Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

I'll just do a quick run down on the chart.

I've added the ADX chart. Again on the ADX for those who have not used this indicator before, the Average Directional Index can determine trend strength regardless of the market direction. This non-directional oscillator is based on a range of 1 to 100 (although movements over 60 are rare). If the line is under the 20 mark, the trend is considered to be weak. If the line is above the 40 mark, the trend is considered to be strong. The ADX line is built on the results of two separate technical indicators, the +DI (force of up-moves) and the –DI (force of the down-moves). The default for this study is 14 periods which takes into the consideration the measurements of the +DI and –DI for the last 14 periods.

Knowing that and looking at the chart, you can clearly see that the -DI has had the upper hand for most of the year since March 2009. That changed however early December when the dollar started rallying on the very bad news that was coming out of Europe and in particular from Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Have a read through following article.

The MACD or Moving Average Convergence Divergence is clearly trading upwards and on the daily trading above the center line. It has not been above the center line since March 2009. So daily and thus short term the trend is UP.

RSI or Relative Strength Index has reached the overbought zone.

To summarize, short term, yes we are in an UP trend, the chart confirms that. However, RSI has reached overbought. MACD is trending higher but with choppy performance. We are trading farther and farther away from the 30 and 50 MA so a consolidation is getting more and more likely to happen from here.

US Dollar Weekly Chart

US Dollar Weekly Chart December 23, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

MACD, well we are still trading below the center line which confirms that weekly we are still not out of the woods yet. The histogram however shows a nice steady increase, one which qualifies as being strong and steady.

RSI is hovering around 50 which leaves plenty of room either UP or DOWN.

From earlier on in the article you already read about the ADX indicator. Well, then you know that the blue line does not tell you anything about the direction but merely the strength of the trend. Our blue line thus was increasing from March 2009 until the beginning of December 2009. Now because the dollar was dropping since March our blue line thus indicated that there was a strong DOWN trend.

Now that we see the ADX bending down and going lower we can thus assume that the strength of the down trend has decreased.

The +DI however was trading upwards but has now flattened out so I will have to wait and see if we get any higher beyond from where we are now.

From the chart we also see that we are now trading above the 10 and 30 MA on the weekly. That still leaves us the 50 MA at around 80.56. Until we have clearly taken out the 80.00 there is no difference to the long term trend...which is still DOWN by the way.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Friday, December 18, 2009

Orko Silver Chart December 18, 2009

By 79Atoms on Friday, December 18, 2009

Orko Silver Marches Onwards.

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Looking at the daily chart we see Orko Silver again since the last two days trading below the 10 MA. With the whole correction in gold and silver I must say that Orko Silver held up pretty well.

The daily chart all in all is, well...not extremely good. Not a total disaster but no total happy camp either. Very short term this could go further down. That is if I go by the negative divergence which I see on the chart. You see, while Orko Silvers price is trading higher from late November to mid December, on the MACD we already see a decline which is a negative signal and thus bearish. We are also trading below the 10 Moving Average. RSI or Relative Strength Index is just about nearing 50.

With this bearish thought in mind I have to say, looking back at the combined action of these last days...doesn't really seem like there is a lot of downside here. So will this negative divergence lead us to a price of $1.14 which coincides with the 30 MA or will we need a correction to the 50 MA at $1.06?

Well, I for one, I didn't put it on the chart but there does also seem to be some support at $1.10 so I'm looking at either the 30 MA at $1.14 or somewhere around $1.10. Anything below that is shopping season, my 2 gold nuggets then.

Looking at the volume leads me only to positive thoughts. Nice, steady volume, plenty of action for all to either sell or buy their shares. MA volume is running for the last month with an average volume starting with 250K and running up to 450K. And those are averages mind you!!

So, to summarize, daily and thus in short term one might expect either a little bit down to levels I indicated above or we will go further sideways like we have done the last couple of days.

Orko Silver Weekly Chart

Orko Silver Weekly Chart December 18, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Weekly is a whole different matter. The little correction and also the slowdown in the up trend is but a mere blip on the weekly chart. On the weekly there is no sign of any bearish signals. That is NONE!

We are still steadily trading above all Moving Averages. Volume is steady and increasing when looked at the MA. (the red arrow)

MACD shows a slight decrease in the histogram but on the weekly still too small to make any difference to the leading trend...which is still UP!

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Free Email Trading Course

By 79Atoms on Thursday, December 17, 2009

Again, a lot of new readers with perhaps a lot of questions about the terms I use when I do my charts and what to look out for. Here is the article with the email trading course sign up from MarketClub which highlights most of these points. Have a read and see if it is anything which might add to your trading skills. There is an unsubscribe link when you are done which works by the way. Anyway, here is the article :

First of all I want to thank you for having me as a guest today!

My name is Adam Hewison. You might want to Google Me to confirm what I am about to share with you.

There are plenty of people out there that create 'exclusive email courses' with little or no credentials to actually backup their teachings. So, I think it’s right that I share a little bit about myself with you before we even start.

I was a former floor trader on the IMM, IOM, NYFE and LIFFE as well as a risk manager of a large, multinational corporation in Geneva, Switzerland. I also have written books on forex trading and trend following. In 1995, I founded INO.com and later co-founded MarketClub. I’ve been in the trading biz for over three decades and have seen it all. I created this course as a way to give back and share trading tips and techniques that I still use in my trading today.

In my Free Mini Email Course, I will show and explain the tools and strategies you need to increase your success rate in the marketplace.

The importance of psychology in price movement
How to spot mega trends
Understanding of technical price objectives
How to picture price objectives
How to trade with moving averages
How to use point and figure trading techniques
How to use the RSI indicator
How to correctly use stochastics in your trading
How to use the ADX indicator to capture trends
How to capitalize on natural market cycles.

Plus, you will you will learn all about fibonacci retracements, MACD, Bollinger Bands and much more.

Just fill out the form and we’ll get you started right away.

Every success,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com & Co-Creator, MarketClub

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Orko Silver Chart September 10, 2009

By 79Atoms on Thursday, September 10, 2009

Daily chart

Chart courtesy of Marketclub
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

There are not many words one needs to describe this chart. We are clearly still in an ongoing uptrend. Though I still expect a close in the green zone tomorrow I am however keeping my eye on the flattening RSI indicator.

I see $0.90 as the next target and after that we're quickly looking at $1.00. There will need to be some consolidation cause the RSI can't stay in overbought zone forever.

But all in all, if one looks at this chart as a series of bottoms, tops, resistance and supports then one has to conclude that there is huge potential of big intra-day rallies for Orko in the coming weeks and months. Try and spot them.

From all the charts I have seen none compare to the overall bullish nature of Orko Silver's chart. I say overall cause I'm not talking about this day's action, I'm referring to the overall view of the 2 yearly chart.

And though I won't admit to not having a small bit of bias since I am a shareholder, I also have my ethical code to not lure unknowing investors into a stock I myself would know to be bad investment wise.

Luckily for me and perhaps for you as a reader, with Orko Silver this is not the case.

Look at the volumes of this stock, if even half of all the people that now are still missing from the stock due to the crisis, would return,...I don't think I need to draw a picture as to where this price is going to go.

And never mind looking at the price of this stock on the day we get another substantial move in gold and close above $1000. When the market realizes this stock is still undervalued and sees this for instance closing above $1.00 more investors will return. I am sure of that.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Orko Silver Chart September 8, 2009

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Intraday Chart

Chart courtesy of google finance

Not much to say really of the intraday chart. Lots of shares were traded in the morning which was of-course mainly due to the releasing of the drill results by Orko. Oh, we did manage to hit 0.86 on two occasions but unless we close above 0.84 I'm not considering this breaking the 0.84 resistance. More on that on the daily chart.

Pan American Silver confirmed Orko's drill results by drilling at approximately 50 metre spacing in an area previously drilled by Orko at 100 metre spacing. So in getting this completed this will now form the basis of a geostatistical study toward ultimate reserve definition. The news release also states that a phase-II diamond drilling is underway.

Of importance from the release is the following :

In addition to the drilling, PAA has completed 57 trenches on regional exploration targets with the resultant collection of 557 samples. These results have encouraged PAA to commence drilling on the exploration targets such as El Vaquero, Nancy, Baritina, Baritina Norte (Martha North) and Orito Norte

To me as an investor this reads....'Plenty more news releases in the pipeline'

Daily chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Now this is a chart I like. Well, what do we have here.

Lots of action, we've made a new 3 day high today at 0.86. We still have the 3 week high for the week ending September 5th. We have a 3 month high in September.
Volume is still increasing as today saw a total of 552k shares traded.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now getting in the overbought zone (above 70) but that shouldn't necessarily mean that we are looking at a sell-off.

We do however have a tiny winy little gap. Again, it is not obligatory for a stock to close a gap before going further up but the possibility exists. If tomorrow the market decides to close the gap that means the stock will first go down to the high of the previous day which is 0.80.

One can never tell, if it drops however to 0.80 I expect a quick bounce up again to continue its advance towards breaking the 0.84 resistance. It still remains to be seen what sort of resistance still exists at 0.84 after the in my opinion very good news release by Orko Silver.

It wouldn't however be all too bad for the stock to find the 0.80 again and start from there building more momentum to blast this 0.84 resistance to smithereens.

Orko is now mainly driven by investors like you and me and not all investors will have received the news release or will have been in the opportunity to get in or buy more. Maybe tomorrow the news release will have done its rounds around the junior investor communities and more people will decide to get in tomorrow.

As with all ventures, do your own diligence and you will do fine. Good luck to all.

Links in the news
Gold Review
MarketWatch
Stockhouse
Orko Silver on www.n24.de (German version of the news release)

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Friday, September 4, 2009

Orko Silver Chart September 4, 2009

By 79Atoms on Friday, September 04, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Today I included a chart with Bollinger bands to show the potential of a breakout to above 1.00. If you take a look at number 1 on the chart. That's the moment where the Bollinger bands started getting wider.

When Bollinger bands are close together that means a period of low volatility in stock price. When they are further apart a period of high volatility in price is shown.

One of the rules some strictly technical traders use is to exit their long positions when the candle leaves the upper Bollinger band and tries to dip under the center one with a red candle. That would be around number 2.

Lots of different ways to use Bollinger bands.

If you want to see more about Bollinger bands, there's a youtube video with an easy lesson to follow for traders not familiar with this technical aid. Also explained is that Bollinger bands are not to be used as a single indicator but always in conjunction with other technical tools like stochastics or RSI (Relative Strength Index).

Anyway, I'm sure most will notice the similarities between point 1 and where we are now. Since September the price volatility has significantly increased and the technicals surrounding Orko's chart are still really bullish. About 260.000 shares traded today which is still a decent volume.

chart on kitco.com

For a break above 0.80 to have occurred I'm guessing gold should have done a bit better than it did on September the 3th. For the smartypants amongst us, yes I know, Orko Silver plans to mine silver and I'm looking at gold. Go figure. I'm sure most will understand my collaboration to the gold side :-)

And September still being the best month for gold and silver we should still expect a continuation of the current up trend.

Monday is labor day so no stock-market for YeOldGoldNugget :-(

Hope I don't have to go into rehab again after last time. Victoria day, pffft.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Orko Silver Chart September 3, 2009

By 79Atoms on Thursday, September 03, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Well, what can I say. Third consecutive up-day for Orko Silver Corp which saw intraday prices go as high as 0.82 before ending the day at 5.41% at 0.78
Here's where it gets better. Just take a look at the chart and in particular at the circled zones at the RSI indicator and the corresponding price action.
The last 2 such occurrences always went with high increases in very few days.
Therefore that I dare to conclude that getting to 1.00 wouldn't be that hard of a stretch.
We're not even in overbought zone which is above 70 so there's still plenty more upside than there is downside at the moment.

Volume is still really strong compared to other junior miners. That's always a good sign, very very positive for a stock. Means there's plenty of opportunity for a shareholder to AND buy AND sell his shares. That gives investors ease of mind and also plays a small part in the larger scheme of things which draws in investors.

One does have to start wondering if we'll ever get back in our nice little comfy trading range of a couple of days ago? (See second chart on this page)
If I had to make a bet on that I'd choose the no answer and if I'm wrong and Orko does fall back I'm just going to load up more shares :-)

With gold and silver going...

Insert Deity name here

...knows where and a producing mine in some future date...wow, producing silver mine, ease up on the brakes there fella, lets first add some more ounces to the list.
In short, I think you'll understand my excitement about Orko Silver. Once other 'potential' Orko investors start this realization process they will come to the same conclusions.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest