YeOldGoldNugget's Blog Spot: Dollar

Showing posts with label Dollar. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

The Dollar's Demise and Gold's Resurrection

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, December 29, 2009

The Dollar Consolidates while the Markets recover.

US Dollar Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Here is a short follow up on my most recent article 'US Dollar Extends Gains' written on December the 22nd. In that article I summarized the following :

To summarize, short term, yes we are in an UP trend, the chart confirms that. However, RSI has reached overbought. MACD is trending higher but with choppy performance. We are trading farther and farther away from the 30 and 50 MA so a consolidation is getting more and more likely to happen from here.

Mr. market was soon to follow this advice cause December 23 was the start of the consolidation/correction for the dollar after extending its gains from a low of 74.356 on December 2 to a high of 78.449 on December the 22nd.

Moving Averages

10 MA : 77.784
30 MA : 76.349
50 MA : 75.916

As of writing the dollar is trading at 77.388 and is thus already trading below the 10 MA. December 27 saw us crossing below the rising trend line indicating that the steam is out of this kettle for sure!

Looking at the chart and all indicators I reckon looking up from here is wishful for those who are long dollar but not very realistic. Down is where I would look. Short term and long term. Market manipulation excluded then cause I am no match for that.

I say manipulation because if you have a look at the charts from Early December and in particular December the 2nd. The dollar starts to rise and right at that time gold starts to drops. Now, OK, I can understand all the dollar/gold relation and safe haven and such...

...but what I do not get is why even after having such a crisis, after knowing what the dollar is worth now or actually ISN'T worth after the stimulus packages, TARP, FED printing presses, Bank bailouts, Company bailouts,...investors are still buying dollars. So...who are these very first buyers driving up the price and starting this Christmas rally in the dollar?

This is no rally based on valid fundamentals. NO Sirree!

So, let me see if I understand Mr. Market? Ok?

So, December 2, gold breaks down and the dollar rallies or vice versa, the dollar rallies and gold breaks down. So, later we get word from the European mainland that Greece, Spain and Ireland are in deep...um...horse manure? Is that the right noun to use? Up to their arm pits in the proverbial debt-pit.

The Dollar's Demise - A full motion picture Documentary

So, because the Euro takes a beating, the dollar who for months has had the leading role in our documentary as being the biggest decliner now steps aside and lets the euro play leading role for a while?

Hm? What does not sound right in this motion picture?

This sounds to me like too much artistic freedom on behalf of the director of this documentary. My original remarks remain, unless the dollar succeeds to AND close above 80.00 and STAY above 80.00 the dollar is in my books at least very much in a downward trend.

US Dollar Weekly Chart

US Dollar Weekly Chart December 29, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Weekly then, well this hasn't improved much. I'm still not swayed, not even by the rally we had since the start of December. It is still too insignificant a move to even be treated as such. For me, I would stay far far far away from any long positions in the dollar for the moment.

From the MACD indicator we can see this is still clearly trending below the center line and thus still bearish as indicator. Histogram is also declining.

Dowsing Rod - Image from http://skepticreport.com/sr/?p=564

The ADX or Average Directional Indicator is in some sort of limbo on the weekly chart? Don't know if this is a chart bug or if the -DI and the +DI just happen to run parallel for the last couple of days.

Maybe it is forming a wishing rod and hoping then to break it in the right place and have their wish come true? Who knows?
Maybe even a dowsing rod? Searching for water? No,..must be an oil dowsing rod then.

Anyway, until this market takes direction again ADX is probably not a good indicator here on the weekly besides than the fact that we see that there is some sort of sideways action to expect perhaps.

Long term like I said, until we clearly break above 80.00 I consider the trend which was downwards still very much intact. Despite the short rally.

I don't know how many more lessons Mr.Market needs but sooner or later this dollar/gold relation will be gone and out the door for GOOD!

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

US Dollar Extends Gains

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, December 22, 2009

The Dollar Increases on the Euro's Decline.

US Dollar Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

I'll just do a quick run down on the chart.

I've added the ADX chart. Again on the ADX for those who have not used this indicator before, the Average Directional Index can determine trend strength regardless of the market direction. This non-directional oscillator is based on a range of 1 to 100 (although movements over 60 are rare). If the line is under the 20 mark, the trend is considered to be weak. If the line is above the 40 mark, the trend is considered to be strong. The ADX line is built on the results of two separate technical indicators, the +DI (force of up-moves) and the –DI (force of the down-moves). The default for this study is 14 periods which takes into the consideration the measurements of the +DI and –DI for the last 14 periods.

Knowing that and looking at the chart, you can clearly see that the -DI has had the upper hand for most of the year since March 2009. That changed however early December when the dollar started rallying on the very bad news that was coming out of Europe and in particular from Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Have a read through following article.

The MACD or Moving Average Convergence Divergence is clearly trading upwards and on the daily trading above the center line. It has not been above the center line since March 2009. So daily and thus short term the trend is UP.

RSI or Relative Strength Index has reached the overbought zone.

To summarize, short term, yes we are in an UP trend, the chart confirms that. However, RSI has reached overbought. MACD is trending higher but with choppy performance. We are trading farther and farther away from the 30 and 50 MA so a consolidation is getting more and more likely to happen from here.

US Dollar Weekly Chart

US Dollar Weekly Chart December 23, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

MACD, well we are still trading below the center line which confirms that weekly we are still not out of the woods yet. The histogram however shows a nice steady increase, one which qualifies as being strong and steady.

RSI is hovering around 50 which leaves plenty of room either UP or DOWN.

From earlier on in the article you already read about the ADX indicator. Well, then you know that the blue line does not tell you anything about the direction but merely the strength of the trend. Our blue line thus was increasing from March 2009 until the beginning of December 2009. Now because the dollar was dropping since March our blue line thus indicated that there was a strong DOWN trend.

Now that we see the ADX bending down and going lower we can thus assume that the strength of the down trend has decreased.

The +DI however was trading upwards but has now flattened out so I will have to wait and see if we get any higher beyond from where we are now.

From the chart we also see that we are now trading above the 10 and 30 MA on the weekly. That still leaves us the 50 MA at around 80.56. Until we have clearly taken out the 80.00 there is no difference to the long term trend...which is still DOWN by the way.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 21, 2009

By 79Atoms on Wednesday, October 21, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

I'm really sorry, I don't have that much time to do a real detailed chart today. I just took a bit longer working on my Fed Black Book article and unlike the office guy in the other article I am worth every penny they pay me so I really should go to bed so today is going to be a quick one then.

As you can see from the chart, today definitely qualifies as a breakout from our downward going and tight-held pattern. Chartwise that is. I still need the share price to make a run for the 100% Fibonacci line which of course corresponds with the 1.04 from a little while ago. When you draw Fibonacci lines you in this case have to start with the low of the earlier upward march to the latest high.

I am however very confident that that will happen. Why?

Today the US dollar broke support around 75.21 and went as low as 75.00 and the way from 75.21 to 72.00 is all open now. It is only a matter of time now before we get the 72.00 on the boards. Now its no more a matter of if but rather of when?

So today, Orko closing at 0.980 +0.040 (4.26%) was very welcome and tomorrow we should see a continuation of today's action however preferably with some added volumes.

US Dollar Chart October 21,2009

Can anyone say battlefield!

That the dollar broke support should sound like music to those who have golden or silver ears. I'd say the second kick-off event has started October 21st!

On to 1100 and higher for gold is all I can say about that and that goes the same for silver which should make and do a break of 18.00 in the coming weeks ahead. I'd sure like to see the forces joining hands to drive the dollar breaking support from investors minds around this globe.

As I'm writing this gold has already reached 1060 again and looks like it will easily reach 1065 by midnight.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 14, 2009

By 79Atoms on Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

So, I suppose everybody has heard the news about Pan American Silver making a friendly take over bid for Aquiline Resources Inc.? So I guess I should start with that first.

A good place to start would be to first watch the following two news videos on Business News Network to let the news sink in:

And then to read through the following PDF's from Pan American Silver :

My opinion, indirectly great advertising for Orko Silver Corp. Investors see Aquiline rising, they see a larger producer doing a friendly takeover of another mid cap silver explorer. Pan American Silver is certainly making sure they will in the long run better benefit of this coming bull run in gold and silver. The deal with Orko Silver, a deal with Aquiline. I don't really think this is such a bad partner to have in these times.

So whether the rise in Orko Silver today and the deal of Pan American Silver with Aquiline have something to do with one and other...I'd say...you bet ya!

Wow, what a day, what a day. We had some big buyer(s) today. Please do leave a comment on my blog will you, leaving your name and a number where I can reach you at:-)
But yeah, before it even was 10 AM we already had about 300K shares traded. Some solid action, that kinda sold the deal for me as to where we were gonna go today price wise. As if the opening of 0.97 didn't already reveal more than enough.

Then the stock did a short dance with the 0.97 which quickly got boring so to spice this one up it decided to make a run for the 1.00 and easily breaking that and putting a high of 1.04 on the boards a little after 12 o clock. The 1.00 was kept on the boards cause the rest of trading was with decent volumes keeping the price well above 1.00 and into a close of 1.01 +0.05 (5.21%)

So, that gives us a fairly good bottom around 0.95 when September 18 saw some decent volume of shares being bought around that average price. Now today again very decent volume around an average of lets say 1.00. All in all, good bottom here from which to built upon the coming days.

Since large buyers do not enter a stock to trade out the next day I'd say this is another holder so that means tomorrow will probably not see that much of profit taking before we head up to even higher ground.

Oh yeah, to those who after looking over the chart still have their hands raised I'd also like for them to leave a comment with their name and a number where I can reach you at...its -flogging some sense into- season you see and I'm in a very generous mood today. Normally, for a decent -flogging some sense into- I'd charge about 50 dollars an hour, but now, for those few I'd do it entirely for free just because I am really that nice of a guy and to sweeten this entire deal for you, I'd not only give you one hour, I'm gonna give you 2 whole hours for free!!

Now don't anybody ever say YeOldGoldNugget doesn't contribute to society!

US Dollar Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - US Dollar Trend Analysis.

No, not the silver chart today but the US dollar chart. I think posting this chart saves me the work of posting either the gold or the silver one.

That definitely does NOT look good! This has to go further down before it can go up again. If a rally is to materialize from here I'd really like to know the reasons for that....and no that does not include any fairy tales coming from the media.

The dollar has lost another 0.578 cents today and now stands at 75.398 -0.578. Just a matter of time before the 75.00 is broken.

I am curious as to what tomorrows action in gold, silver and the US dollar will bring.

In the links of the day I've added another junior silver miner Excellon Resources Inc. (TSX: EXN) with some spectacular results who also happens to be in the same neck of the woods as Orko Silver is. Durango State, Mexico. That must be the same silver trend thats running through Orko's property. Check out the news release they sent out October the 6th.

3,293 g/t Ag. Today they expanded on those results. So, any doubts anyone should have about what's in the ground there in Mexico should really be wondering by now. The drilling program by Orko and Pan American Silver is vast enough and will last us through the year. Plenty of opportunity to add some decent resources to the list.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 09, 2009

By 79Atoms on Saturday, October 10, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

OK, Fridays action was not that charming when I look at it. Nothing to do with Orko Silver though. Yesterday the whole commodities market had to take a little breather from this week's exciting action in gold and silver.

So Orko Silver opening at 0.94 and immediately looking for lower grounds was not that discouraging or disappointing to me. Already after one hour of trading we had the 0.90 on the boards. We did manage to pull back to 0.92 before noon but got quickly pulled down again and almost seemed like we were going to close the gap at 0.88 but near missed it at 0.89 before going back up again to 0.92. I wasn't really expecting anything more of the day so the fact we closed at 0.900 -0.050 (-5.26%) wasn't all that of a surprise.

Bit of a shame that we missed the chance to close the gap by a mere Canadian cent but I'm confident that next weeks first trades will do just that before we head higher again. So chart wise I'm still looking at a stock in an uptrend. We did have a 3 day low of 0.89 which mildly dampens the mood but knowing we still have the gap to fill not such a very big issue. Any further close beneath the 0.90 however would change that view for me.

So next weeks first trading day will preferably put a low of 0.88 or 0.87 on the boards before we start heading higher again. All depends on our shiny friends or a news release from Orko Silver with some new resources to be added to the list (wishful and hopeful thinking).

US Dollar 5-day chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.

I'll spare you the daily or weekly chart for now.

As you'll notice, the dollar has broken the 76.00 level on a few times, first on Wednesday late trading, then Thursday we already opened under 76.00 and Friday saw a small pullback over 76.00.

And looking at the daily and weekly chart...that's not a pretty picture either. The trend is very much downwards so I expect not too much of a rally anymore. Sure traders can profit from the occasional pullback but sooner or later they will get burned...when the dollar will not be pulling back over 76.00 anymore...when instead, it will start to go lower and lower. The 72.00 is on the cards now, its not a question of if but a question of when?

And as the old adage goes...dollar down, gold up! It means foreign countries reducing their dollar reserves, it means foreign countries starting their exodus from the once thought of world reserve currency which was the US dollar to a different basket of currencies, one which even might include gold.

The following article is featured on 24hGold, I suggest you check it out. It's called the Gold Wars.

I'm sure most of you have read if not few then at least one story about foreign countries taking measures, buying up gold, getting their gold out of foreign vaults, people buying futures and expecting physical delivery of goods instead of just paper-talk. There is even talk about the end of the petro-dollar...which actually already explains itself. Countries will stop using the dollar to pay for oil and instead will use other means.

Well, these events are increasing! Some of them have never happened before, some have. The fact that there are these some that have never happened before leaves me in awe of what gold and silver might do next.

This is a whole new ballroom and this time, the US courtesan is not invited to the ball.

Silver Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.

Looking at a very bullish chart here! Silver made good progress during last weeks trading. We even put a high of 17.91 on the boards which is just a little shy of the 18.00.
Not to worry cause the 18.00 will be broken real soon. All indicators are screaming for this to go higher and the groundwork for that to happen has already been taken care of. Anything under 20.00 is peanuts now price wise and in a not too long time this will be considered cheap prices.

The following is a Rich Dad movie I found. Only to be watched by hardened gold or silverbugs.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 07, 2009

By 79Atoms on Wednesday, October 07, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

I'm just gonna do a quick chart here. So lets see what we got here, another higher opening at 0.94 for Orko Silver. Good start of the day! Went up to 0.95 but got pulled down to 0.92 in the morning hours. The afternoon got a bit better and saw some further action between the low and the high of the day.

It looked like we were gonna close in the red but some 30.000 shares bought about a half hour for closing brought us back in the green and at a close of 0.950 +0.020 (2.15%).

I see a bullish crossover coming on the boards which means I'm looking at higher prices in the coming days. I'm definitely not looking any lower right now.

Anything more than the 0.95 today was not in the cards. The dollar got severely beaten yesterday as it devalued against most if not all other currencies...with the exception of the odd few then. So, since yesterday's beating the dollar is now regaining a few little points. I say few cause for it to break 78.00 it first has to go to 72.00

I took a screenshot of some currency pairs. This is from yesterday.

Currency Pairs

Chart courtesy of NetDania

Faith in the US dollar? Safe haven? Rally coming anytime soon?

HARDLY!

Also, have a quick look at the following ebay auction. Don't forget to read what the auctioneer writes beneath his auction.

Gold and silver kept their gains and will move higher up in the coming days and weeks, there is no need for consolidation any time soon. Still plenty of up possible without a hint of overbought status.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 06, 2009

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, October 06, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Well, we already opened higher at 0.90 which...well...,was bound to happen with silver gaining significant grounds again. Always nice to open higher but when it leaves a gap then well, lets just say I'd rather not have the gap there. Without it, I don't have to deal with it. Now, I always have that gap sitting there waiting to be closed.

Now, don't get me wrong, me personally, I wouldn't mind even if it looked worse than a gaping wound with puss coming out. Toss some alcohol on there, stick a band-aid on and lets get moving is what I say. Don't look back. But yeah, some people even when EXPLICITLY WARNED not to,...do look back. Oh well, those French fries do need some salt I suppose, has to come from somewhere.

The morning hours quickly brought our high of 0.95 on the boards. About 80.000 shares were bought around the high of the day so that didn't hold. At the end of the day someone did however manage to get some shares at 0.90 before the stock closed at 0.93 +0.060 (6.90%).

Chart wise Orko Silver looks set to break the 1.00 tomorrow. Also, beneath 0.90 bad, above 0.90 good. Red bad, green good. Lets keep it simple for tomorrow.

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.

Talk about sizzling hot action! That takes care of the all time high that's for sure. Thank you White Knight for fulfilling the first part of what will become a long and arduous quest.
But for those few in the know...between 8 and 16..., 'seemed like such a great time to be shopping for gold.' ;-)

Rumors rumors rumors, so many rumors. If any true or come to transpire, I dare not write here the figure I have in mind for gold for fear of some sort of Middle Age thinking grabbing hold and thus also the part where people will be condemning me a heretic to be burned at the stake for even mentioning such an outrageous number.

Well OK, so I don't have to say it aloud do I? If I just point somewhere to the sky and to be more specific to any of the fainter and dimmer stars hardly to be seen with the naked eye? How long would it take for light to get from there to here I wonder??

Silver Spot Daily Chart

Silver Spot Daily Chart October 06, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.

Seems this Knight is packing some silver too. Like gold, this silver chart is also very bullish. Doesn't matter if I check the daily or weekly. If this thing breaks 18...and it will then I think I will assume the same position as I did with gold. I'd start pointing towards the night sky.

Fact of the matter, don't waste your time reading this article. I'm blinded by the precious shinies which are clouding my judgment.

Oh yeah, one more thing I forgot, I was thinking about adding the US dollar chart but it would only serve as a thorn in the eye for my three otherwise bullish charts.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Orko Silver Chart October 01, 2009

By 79Atoms on Thursday, October 01, 2009

Sector Summary Chart

Chart is courtesy of Google Finance

First trading day in October and that is what it looks like. When you have a sector wide down day like this then it really doesn't matter what a stock has done the last couple of days or what the trend is, when that happens the stock joins the sell off as investors pull their money out to get some cash on the sidelines until the commotion clears. I call it panic selling in Orko Silver's case but looking at the volume today which stands at a mere 50K I don't really think we have that much of a downside to look at.

Looking at the dollar which rose by 0.484 cents to around 77.187. I call that a fools rally but do also admit that it pulls down the commodities.

Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

Well, we made a close at 0.84 which is not what I expected yesterday but was expecting today with a first October day like this one. I think most people who have a higher leverage in gold and silver stocks had to look very hard to find any green shoots in their portfolio.

This could go either way so I'm not gonna call it. Since I am however confident that there is a bottom around here somewhere I think we just might go sideways on lower volumes as everyone who wanted to sell has sold by now. Anything further under 0.84 is a perfect opportunity to add to your position.

Lets hope panic does not get hold of the markets again like it did today.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Monday, September 28, 2009

Orko Silver Chart September 28, 2009

By 79Atoms on Monday, September 28, 2009

Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis.

I suppose rising silver prices are not to stop Orko Silver's consolidation? Most other silver stocks I follow have all ended in the green today.
But to prove to you that stocks don't always follow the run in silver price I say look at the following chart. As you will notice if you compare the above and below, you will see that Orko kept trading upwards till September 22 while most other silver stocks (that I follow) have started their down march since September 16 together with the consolidation in silver.

Silver Spot

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis.

That was that. Today we opened at 0.88, we did manage to put the 0.89 on the boards but the bear had its claws in that lone bull quick-smart and after making a low of 0.85 we closed the day at a price of 0.86.

That makes it 0.01 less than last Friday which isn't all too bad really. I don't really think its time yet for Orko to start its move upwards. The volume today has again decreased so what bear there remains to my feeling is more of a little Teddy-bear. At least that is what it looks like to me. When you have a day where about 100K shares are traded then I don't have to explain to you that the number of sellers appears to growing thin!

The MACD indicator does indicate the counter movement from upwards to downwards. That is not the same as downtrend or uptrend. This stock however being in a downward momentum is however not in a downtrend. The trend is still upwards! To qualify for the downtrend this stock would have to dip beneath the 0.75.

Looking at the chart, if the 0.85 level doesn't hold, which is a possibility however looking at volume today getting that little bit more unlikely, then I'm looking at the next Fibonacci line which brings us to 0.80. And no, there is no gap there from September 4 till September 8.

I'd say RSI wise I'd like to see it go lower a bit more than where we are now. So where does that leave us for tomorrow. The things I see here as positive are the low volume of sellers which could indicate this bear is ready for its winter nap, a Fibonacci 61.8% which coincides with the 0.85 pivot point from a couple times ago in Orko's past which could still act as a bottom, the fact that we more or less traded sideways instead of more downwards...and the stock isn't overbought anymore

Phew, that's actually quite a lot that I've written there that I like. Hm, well, still looking a bit more to the downside tomorrow although things are looking up and the downward movement today could all be easily explained by Stormy Monday.

If you haven't already watched the presentations I suggest you do so, best to start with the Latin American Mining Congress and work your way back. (knowing that the first two have some by now outdated numbers and data, the history about the story however hasn't changed)

As always, do your own due diligence, take care and prosper.

Sources
Latin American Mining Congress 2009 (image)

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest