YeOldGoldNugget's Blog Spot: Daily

Showing posts with label Daily. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Orko Silver's Strong Performance

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Orko Silver still going strong.

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Well, not much has changed since I wrote up my last chart. Not for Orko Silver anyway which is still going strong despite a correcting gold and silver market. Just goes to show how a stock gets a reputation of being a strong performer. That title in my book at least is also bestowed on stocks that can witter any storm.

Just compare Orko Silver to most other stocks. Result. Orko holds, most others drop!

Besides that, just take a look at some of the profits one could have taken since Orko Silver started its up march. From early September trading around $0.60 and going to $0.90 up to November for a 50% gain. Then, from early November from $0.90 to around now $1.25 for another near 40% gain.

Also, just take a look at some of these volumes of the last couple of days :

December 16, 2009 Volume 875K
December 17, 2009 Volume 689K
December 21, 2009 Volume 447K

That is some very steady trading to put it mildly. I don't know why but I have the feeling that someone is loading up on shares around $1.20. If that is the case than when this party is done with their Christmas shopping then I expect we could see the start of another UP rally.

I think we have plenty of support at $1.00 and some additional support at $1.10. Anything below that is buying opportunity in my book and that is not saying that it still isn't cheap at $1.20...cause it is.

MACD or the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is trending downwards but not with such strength so as to be concerned. I think this will bounce back up way before we hit the center line. This already shows in the histogram. As you see, the histogram is not increasing but remaining the same.

From the chart we can also see we are still trading above all Moving Averages, and above, well sorta cause we are right at the 10 MA which is around $1.20

So on the daily, I still do not see any considerable downside from here so therefor I must conclude that until said party is loaded up we will remain pricebound around these prices of $1.10 to $1.25.

Orko Silver Weekly Chart

Orko Silver Weekly Chart December 23, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Weekly, still looking at a BULLISH chart. There is this small delay in Durango station we are experiencing but I reckon we are just loading up on passengers until the Silver Train is fully booked up and ready to go!

The rise in average volume can clearly be seen on the weekly chart. I've drawn a red arrow beneath the red line to visualize this. So, more and more shares are changing hands.

MACD is trending upwards and above the center line and thus our UP trend is still intact.

Orko Silver Weekly ADX Chart

Orko Silver Weekly ADX Chart December 23, 2009

I've also added the ADX chart. Again on the ADX, the Average Directional Index can determine trend strength regardless of the market direction. This non-directional oscillator is based on a range of 1 to 100 (although movements over 60 are rare). If the line is under the 20 mark, the trend is considered to be weak. If the line is above the 40 mark, the trend is considered to be strong. The ADX line is built on the results of two separate technical indicators, the +DI (force of up-moves) and the –DI (force of the down-moves). The default for this study is 14 periods which takes into the consideration the measurements of the +DI and –DI for the last 14 periods.

Knowing this and taking a look at Orko's ADX...clearly UP and the trend is qualifying for a STRONG rating.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Will Silver Bounce Back Before Christmas?

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Silver Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

I'm looking at the daily chart here, December the 15th on our 349th day of the year with only 16 more to go before we take silver into 2010.

Now, looking at the daily chart, I must honestly confess, I've seen better. Yes, at December the 11th we've hit a new 3 week low of $16.91. Yes, we have been trading down from our high of $19.45 which was put on the boards at December the 2nd and have traded down from then. Yes, we are trading below our Moving Averages.

However, to me, that only shows that we could be very near a turning point which does not mean I'm indicating a bottom here. Don't get me wrong, what I'm saying is, the market could find a bottom here. Like me, others look at the same charts and find the same lines, resistances, supports, pivot points, 8 year cycles, 12 year cycles,... And to me, unless I fail at drawing computer generated straight lines in a...well...straight line...then the chart is telling me we could indeed be at such a point.

So, when I say, NO, I'm not indicating a bottom, I'm also saying, either we go up from here or we break the trend line. So, that still leaves us both options.

Which do I favor or rather think more likely to happen from here?

Well, personally and chart wise I'd say we very well could go up from here. So my guess is there will surely be many investors who will take the figuratively speaking plunge into a silver long investment. When some do, that will cause a ripple and more will follow. It is the way of the market.

I'm already hearing about March 2010 silver prices going as high as $22.00. So, already the market is looking at way higher prices than what we are now looking at.

So,...is a $22.00 silver price in March 2010 realistic?

Well, the answer to that question would be...PRETTY MUCH YEA!

Like gold, silver CAN, HAS and WILL again in the near future perform like it seems there is nothing holding it back. Just take a look at the beginning of September when gold started moving away from the $1000 level, silver was trading at September the 1st with a low of $14.62 moving all the way up to September the 17th to finish off with a high of $17.65. At that very same time gold had only made a high of $1024.

Seasons Greetings Bar Silver - 2009 Copyright Northwest Territorial Mint

Now, I'm sure not all of my readers are math geniuses but I think you'd have to agree that getting from $14.62 to $17.65 is more of an increase than getting from $1000 to $1024? I think silver made about a 18% gain while gold had to settle for a mere 3% gain.

So, yes, I like the shiny gold, I admit! And yes, it is more precious but for my normal investments, like shares and the junior market I prefer the leverage I get in silver over gold.

It's just personal preference I suppose.

So, to continue with the chart and my motivation for my comments, well, you see, first and foremost if we break $17.00 from here...and with the emphasis on here...then I really don't know where this has to go, daily then. Only to say that from here on down and below $17.00 would be Christmas Silver Shopping Season.

MACD looks to be heading back up and the histogram already is showing signs of starting to decline back to zero and hopefully above the center line again. Now, it is too early to tell but it is on the chart so, the downward momentum has definitely decreased. Whether this holds I honestly don't know but the latest about the rising wholesale prices and the inflation fears will put an additional level of support under gold and silver?

To end my daily chart, plain and simple, there is more support to be found around these prices than there is resistance. Like electricity, silver will go the way of least resistance...that in my opinion is UPWARDS!

Silver Spot Weekly Chart

Silver Spot Weekly Chart December 15, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Silver Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

On to the weekly then, well for one, there is the $16.00 support level which is a very nice thing to have. Since, earlier it was a resistance, now that we are steadily trading above that level it will act as support like it has in the past.

Why bring up the $16.00? Just to show that if silver does manage to break the trend line then $16.00 is the number I'm looking at to look for a bounce back up. Nothing wrong with being prepared either way,...is there?

For now, I will remain looking up and not down! We are still trading upwards and still in a clearly definable up trend. We are also still trading in our trend channel all be it that we are now at the bottom of our lower trend line.

Most important thing is, we are holding as you've seen daily and weekly.

So, not much more I can say here. We need to look for confirmation of this thing wanting to go higher from here. Silver could trade sideways for a bit longer before heading back up. Anything above $17.00 is still bullish, getting to far below $17.00 would be bearish and should put investors in alert mode.

So, to answer the question, will silver bounce back before Christmas? Well, it is already sorta doing that. Only thing left to do from here is get back to our earlier high of $19.45 and leave the under $19.00 zone behind us and in thus doing so creating a bottom and support at $19.00.

Lets take this one step at a time though, that means, daily, lets get back above $18.14 first and then look again.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Gold's Relentless March Continues!

By 79Atoms on Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Since I did my last chart I've been doing some minor adjustments to my trend lines. Only minor ones as you'll see. Just compare the two daily charts for a moment.

Only difference is, the trend lines now align perfectly and every other one is 50 points away from the next one. I don't know whether this is a coincidence to have them lining up so perfectly but there are too many points to highlight on the chart which sorta rules out coincidence...at least to me.

For instance...the bottom trend line started November/ December 2008 at around 750 (low to be exactly 756,20 at December 07, 2008). Were we to follow that trend line until now we would indeed with the combined normal trading action have hit the 1000 mark around September / October 2009.
Also from the chart you will see the upper trend line being hit in February 2008, on February the 20th to be precise. If I use that high and draw a new trend line parallel with my other trend line and also at exactly 50 points from the lower one (the 4th), take a look where gold took a breather from a couple days ago!

On November the 24th I posted an alert on my stock-house blog to let my readers know that a possible dip was coming. You can now see why!

Sure, it could break the upper trend line straight away but always better to take some profits off the table. That way you have some funds available to buy stocks on the low if it does turn down.

On with the chart, you'll see that from the beginning of November gold has broken through several trend lines, three to be precise. Now, if you know that each channel represents 50 points than that gives you 3 x 50 which equals 150 points increase already since the beginning of November when we were still trading at 1050.

So, starting from 1050 in early November, 3 channels up gives us 1200. Now from the chart you'll clearly see that it broke short of the 1200 and after hitting 1195 started trading down. It was a quick pullback which coincided with the Dubai debt issue seemed like a very violent correction as it went down and hit a low of 1136, a little bit under the lower trend line. Gold was quickly brought back up again and together with the 10 MA as support was quickly making its way to the upper most trend line again and has since yesterday clearly broken it.

Trading now around $1215, so definitely above the upper trend line which sorta leaves me wondering where this is going to end? In my last article I indicated getting to 1200 would be no problem. From the looks of things I'd say no problem indeed!

So now what?

Well, from the chart you'll see already on the daily we are a whopping $232 away from the Moving Average 200 ;-)
Don't know if this is a record or not since my charts only go back for 10 years but from what I can see on the daily in those 10 years....IT IS!!!

Does that mean I'm now looking downwards for gold? HECK NO!

No time to be betting against gold right now, no matter what RSI or MA tells you. At least, that's what I think. If mean, if you see gold moving up channel after channel, gaining 50 points in a couple of days and another 100 points over the course of less than a month with no signs of even looking back to the carnage it is wreaking havoc upon amongst those who are short.

Golden HAVOC!

So, does the daily chart please YeOldGoldNugget? A WHOLEHEARTEDLY YES! It is the relentless action of gold, the maybe historic gains gold is making now. Not simple factors to ignore, my 2 gold nuggets.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart

Gold Spot Weekly Chart December 02, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

Weekly is where gold does its magic! Is it magical? Well, can't you see the magic going on in the weekly chart? I sure can!

Again, mind you, I can only look back 10 years in market club and from what I can see gold has never seen such strong performance like it has these last two months. Absolutely amazing to say the least!

From the chart you can see we are still or could still be completing our head and shoulders pattern which we broke out off from the beginning of October 2009, That alone gives us a long term price indication of about 1300 to 1350.

Looking at the MACD,...if ever someone needed to write a book and describe one of the most bullish of MACD's then surely gold's MACD or something similar would be shown. Blue line above red line, wide gap ever increasing, steady increase is also shown in the gray divergence cubes which increase steadily over time. That is just what one needs to see and will always see when a stock or index is undergoing a strong uptrend.

I've added another indicator, the Average Directional Index, this can determine trend strength regardless of the market direction. This non-directional oscillator is based on a range of 1 to 100 (although movements over 60 are rare). If the line is under the 20 mark, the trend is considered to be weak. If the line is above the 40 mark, the trend is considered to be strong. The ADX line is built on the results of two separate technical indicators, the +DI (force of up-moves) and the –DI (force of the down-moves). The default for this study is 14 periods which takes into the consideration the measurements of the +DI and –DI for the last 14 periods.

Knowing that and looking at gold's ADX chart you can clearly see the +DI above the ADX which indicates a trend upwards. ADX is also looking to go higher.

If gold keeps up its relentless action which it, looking at the weekly chart, is bound to do then by February 2010 we might already be looking at 1300 or more.

Stranger things have happened.

I think we have a clear winner here! Gold...and silver...bound to astonish most and catch many off-guard and with their pants down.

To finish my article I'll give a couple supports daily and weekly.

On the daily we have support from either the 10 MA at 1184, the 30 MA at 1129. I'm disregarding the 200 MA (984) for obvious reasons. Of course, there are also the trend lines to look for to offer support, 1200, 1150, 1100,...

On the weekly we have support (and also from the trend lines) from either the 10 MA at 1096, the 30 MA at 1002. I'm disregarding the 200 MA (788) for obvious reasons.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Orko Silver Chart November 24, 2009

By 79Atoms on Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Orko Silver Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

The daily chart now shows in clearer detail the breakout which happened on November the 16th. If you take a look at the volume chart you'll see that volume has been steadily building up since the start of this rally November the 10th. On and off we've seen 353K, 402K, 545K and 732K shares being traded with the larger volumes being seen since breaking resistance at 1.00 at November the 16th.

When I take a look at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) you can see we've had the bullish crossover a couple of trading days ago and we are still up-trending. There is as of yet no sign of any reversal showing up on the daily. (Divergence still positive)

Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is now just about getting back at the start of being overbought. I say, at the start cause even on the daily chart Orko as we can see from the rally from early September, Orko can stay in the overbought zone for a prolonged time. We are now only a couple days in overbought so still nothing to worry about as far as I'm concerned.

Orko Silver Corp - Developing one of the world's largest Silver deposits

Trading action today again very solid. To most it will seem just like 200K shares traded but take a look at the orders which weren't filled so today again very solid action.

Most juniors were trading down and Orko was trading up and managed to close at 1.18+0.04 (3.51%). All in all still very pleased with the action going on in Orko. What does one need more, this has it all for the short-term trader AND for the long-term trader. For a short-term trader, just take a look at the chart, buy early September, get out September 25, get in early October, get out late October,...

Orko Silver Weekly Chart

Orko Silver Chart November 24, 2009 (Weekly)

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Orko Silver Corp. Trend Analysis

(What's this?)

On to the weekly where we try to spot the expected longer term trend. From the weekly you'll see on the MACD chart that we are only since the start of October trending above the MACD center line. That fact and the fact that we are trading above all Moving Averages bodes well for Orko long term.

Also from the chart you can see the resistance line I've drawn at 1.00 and the bottom at around 0.80. The 1.00 seems pretty clear to me. The 0.80 is found by looking at the 200 MA, you'll see that from the start of the big drop from April 2008 to about September 2008, there is some sideways action going on around 0.80. Besides this, getting under 0.80 there would mean going under the 200 MA. The 0.80 has acted as support and resistance before.

Placing some Fibonacci retracement lines on the chart from our high of about 2.00 and our low of 0.28 gives us 1.14 as another key point as this coincides with the 50% Fibonacci. Fibonacci wise our next target should be 1.34.

Would be a very hard feat for YeOldGoldNugget to describe these charts as being bearish in nature if not near impossible.

Nope, this bull has horns and some very nice ones mind you. Should be clear to individuals, funds and computer programs that Orko is trading up from here. With Pan American Silver again stating very clearly to have a production decision ready on La Preciosa by the end of 2010 I do not think I need to draw a little picture for visual purposes as to where this thing is going to go...do I?

I think most can do their own maths on that. Here's a little blast from the past and from when I just started up my blog on Orko. Doesn't the low seventies sound cheap now? Back then it probably wasn't to most. That is why it is so important to do your own due diligence, find a stock which you like, with decent management, approachable to shareholders, valid track record, good project(s), plenty of funding, interest from junior/senior...AND STICK WITH IT!

That would be my advice anyway as a long term holder. For the surfers amongst us, please ride the long waves only, don't bet against our precious Orko by going short. That is bad JuJu! The market will punish you for it I'm sure.

I think that's about all I have to say for the moment about Orko. One more thing though, I was going to do a gold chart but time is short so this will have to wait till tomorrow. Only two things I have to say right now, never a bad idea to take some profits off the table and also never to go against the trend. Though I recognize the overbought and the big rally without correction I still find it extremely dangerous betting against this rally. More on that tomorrow.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Gold Continues its Upward Move to 1350

By 79Atoms on Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Gold Spot Daily Chart

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

OK. Here it goes :

Beginning October 2009 I did my buy gold now article. Gold was then still trading around 1010. Next days trade gold made a high of 1043....and continued going higher.

At the end of October 2009 I wrote G for gold and back with a vengeance article. Gold was at that time trading around 1040 and had just consolidated back to the second trendline. Next days trade gold made a high of 1066 and continued going higher.

Beginning of November 2009 I wrote my gold breaking out of upper trend channel article. Gold was at that time trading around 1096. Next days trade we hit a high of 1110 and continued going higher.

Now, I'm not trying to say that you can draw a trend line along YeOldGoldNugget but from time to time one has to contemplate and look back upon one's own writing. Is YeOldGoldNugget full of crap, just plain lucky,...or can YeOldGoldNugget follow Gold Nuggets?

Well, that is not for me to decide, I'd probably just go with the full of crap.

So,...what does YeOldGoldNugget think now? Hm? I'm probably way too bullish for my own good but I see 1200 being doable...short term. However, I have to say my short term judgment is a bit clouded by me having looked at the weekly chart. The daily I'd say,...bit of danger here. Well, to me, and to the trend line I've drawn, we are again reaching a crossing point. Will we break that trend line and continue heading further up or will gold do a short term pullback?

Hard to say. Fundamentally I'd say we go straight to 1200 and more, however the daily chart tells me gold is due for a small pull back. If you look at the daily chart you'll notice that gold does not stay for very long in the oversold zone, RSI wise then. So based on that, I'd say we could get a pullback in the very near term.

How far a pullback you say? Well, when we drop to trend line 2 then I'm looking at somewhere around 1084. This also coincides with the 30 Moving Average which together with the trend line can or will act as support.

Don't forget! When we are in a strong uptrend its always a rather dumb idea to be betting against the flow. Same as jumping in front of a moving Silver Train like Orko Silver Corp, thinking it will stop just because you expect it to or so desire it to. That Silver Train, like gold, has left the station. So, in gold's case you're thinking about going short gold then better make sure it's a quick trade cause else you're going to loose more than just your shirt.

Gold Spot Weekly Chart

Gold Spot Weekly Chart November 18, 2009

Chart is courtesy of marketclub.
Marketclub - Gold Spot Trend Analysis.

On to the weekly for direction and confirmation of our trend. Up or down? Stupid question I suppose...well...for the intellectually challenged maybe a solid question?

Time to get the neon signs back from under the dust again. One shows how YeOldGoldNugget feels about the weekly chart and the other gives a visual indication of the trend.

What more does one need to know?

OK then, MACD looks good and is making higher and higher high's which is extremely bullish. Stochastics has been trading for a little over 2 months in oversold zone. As you can see from the chart, the last big rally got gold trading in oversold area for as much as 7 months! YOINKS!

RSI is not the best of indicators to use when looking at the weekly chart of gold, with that I mean, don't go opening a weekly chart, seeing gold in oversold at RSI and deciding to dump your shares or something like that :-)

Better is it to watch stochastics...when this goes to far towards 60 then I'd start contemplating about selling or taking profits. That is, if you're riding the waves like I am.

Surf's up!

So to round up :

Entering now, probably not THE best of idea's, better wait to see if gold will break this trend line. If in the next days you see gold moving up to 1150, 1155, 1160,...then its a fair bet that 1200 will be knocked down in the very same breath. Remember also that gold could be finishing the Head and Shoulders pattern which has a target of 1350

If you from now see gold opening lower, closing lower, lot of red candles, bit of sideways trading without making new higher grounds than the air is out of the balloon and we need a refill. You'll know and recognize it when it happens. This thus could indicate gold wanting to trade lower and possibly heading back to trend line 2.

Just wait and let the market come to you. Clearly the trend is up, but short term there could be danger ahead. Last thing, the dollar seems to be caving in under the enormous buying which has been going on in the gold market. A high gold price does not bode well for the dollar and looking at the weekly chart of gold and seeing where this could go...not a far stretch of the imagination to think what will happen with the dollar when gold is trading at 1350.

YeOldGoldNugget's links of interest